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Rui Ma
@ruima
AI, EVs, Robotics, Education, China. Mom. Also I help edit @techbuzzchina. Views personal. Ask me anything
Joined January 2008
921 Following    80.8K Followers
China’s STAR 50 is down about 40% from its July peak, wiping out roughly $480B, according to Reuters. Unitree has lost about half its value since its August debut, while MetaX and Moore Threads have seen similar declines since July. Back in August, I said Unitree’s IPO looked overhyped, and that continued volatility could delay AGIBOT’s listing. Now Lotus’s Hong Hao is telling Reuters that the selloff could derail IPO plans for quite a few companies. I’ve been bearish on the IPO pipeline for Chinese AI and robotics companies for a while, and I think this correction will significantly reduce the number of listings in the near term. The government wants to support these industries, but that doesn’t mean it wants to encourage speculation in their stocks. Even after the correction, the STAR 50 is still trading at around 100x trailing earnings, compared with roughly 30x for the Nasdaq 100. So I’m not convinced we’ve seen the bottom yet. Of course, a stock market correction isn’t the same thing as a collapse in the underlying AI industry. But I do think this will have real consequences for how Chinese AI and robotics companies raise capital.
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China may be the FIRST country to burst the AI bubble. Its stock market, the world’s 2nd-largest, is now OFFICIALLY in a bear market. Its blue-chip CSI 300 has now fallen -20% from its peak. Mainland stocks have lost $2.4T since May. What caused? AI. Over the past 2 years, investors piled into Chinese AI stocks until they made up 42% of the entire market. That frenzy sent new listings flying. GPU makers Moore Threads and MetaX jumped 400% and 700% on their debuts, and robot maker Unitree’s IPO was 8,000x oversubscribed. By the peak, the STAR 50, China’s AI index, was trading near 250x earnings. But the profits never caught up to the prices, and investors started selling. By late October, the index had fallen 40%, erasing $480B. AI makers MiniMax and Zhipu down over -85%. Unitree, Moore Threads, and MetaX all cut in half. AI was too big to fall alone. It took the whole market with it. Moreso, Morgan Stanley sees another 10–15% drop before a bottom. So far, the selling CONTINUES.
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