โThe most likely outcome is an age of Amazing Abundance, where anyone can have anything they can think of.โ by Elon Musk
This is also the future I want.
1. The growth momentum of leading-edge process technologies and CoWoS of TSMC has yet to show any near-term signs of reversal. The entire AI semiconductor supply chain in Taiwan remains in a state of undersupply, and we have already seen participants across the supply chain initiate significant capacity expansion plans through increased Capex.
2. It is worth noting that Taiwan sits at the downstream end of the AI value chain. As a result, any policy changes or material shifts in investment by U.S. Frontier Labs or AIDC operators typically take time to be reflected in the actual operations of Taiwanese semiconductor companies. So far, however, there has been no clear evidence of a meaningful deterioration in near-term fundamentals.
3. The recent market weakness appears to be driven more by valuation multiple compression resulting from a higher risk premium for mid term uncertainty rather than by any significant change in near-term underlying business conditions.