@elonmusk One thing I really admire about Elon Musk is that he’s completely unbound by sunk costs, whether it’s the FSD software or the hardware vehicle models. Even with his own baby, the Cybertruck, he’s just as willing to engage in self-reflection.

@elonmusk One thing I really admire about Elon Musk is that he’s completely unbound by sunk costs, whether it’s the FSD software or the hardware vehicle models. Even with his own baby, the Cybertruck, he’s just as willing to engage in self-reflection.

1. The growth momentum of leading-edge process technologies and CoWoS of TSMC has yet to show any near-term signs of reversal. The entire AI semiconductor supply chain in Taiwan remains in a state of undersupply, and we have already seen participants across the supply chain initiate significant capacity expansion plans through increased Capex. 2. It is worth noting that Taiwan sits at the downstream end of the AI value chain. As a result, any policy changes or material shifts in investment by U.S. Frontier Labs or AIDC operators typically take time to be reflected in the actual operations of Taiwanese semiconductor companies. So far, however, there has been no clear evidence of a meaningful deterioration in near-term fundamentals. 3. The recent market weakness appears to be driven more by valuation multiple compression resulting from a higher risk premium for mid term uncertainty rather than by any significant change in near-term underlying business conditions.

US industrial capacity has been eroding for decades, and with it the fortunes of our middle class and to an extent, our national security. Data center development and our leadership in AI can reverse that trend, finally. Current hysteria to block all projects everywhere is a gift to China.

By the way, at the end of 2024, the consensus among most people was also that Trump was still a shrewd businessman who wouldn’t rashly impose indiscriminate tariffs, or start another unmanageable war in the Middle East. But it still happened in the end. Fast forward to the present, the current consensus among most people (at least verbally) is also that the Dems are still rational and won’t adopt the DSA’s absurd policies. As for how that turns out, we’ll just have to wait and see.

In the semiconductor industry, LTA has never meant absolute certainty. Wafers have signed LTAs, passive components have signed LTAs, and memory has also signed LTAs. History has shown that when prices fall, both sides are more likely to terminate the agreement than for the buyer to continue bearing the LTA.

1️⃣ Why does Europe struggle to fund its own startups? Look at where it keeps its retirement money. Americans hold retirement savings worth 153% of GDP. The Dutch, 151%. The French, 13%. Germans, 6%. Most of Europe pays pensions out of today's wages. So it never builds the big pools of long-term capital that fund VC in the US. (I work at Vsquared Ventures, an early-stage deep tech VC firm investing across Europe. Views my own.) (OECD)

Let’s recap what CC Wei said: “To verify whether AI demand is real, TSMC has even sent teams to the United States to inspect data center construction progress and power supply conditions on the ground.” They have conducted extensive fieldwork, much like @SemiAnalysis_ . How can anyone view them as reckless or uninformed?

Compared with the past, valuations are high; compared with U.S. semiconductor stocks, they are still acceptable. There is a lot of noise in supply-chain news, and with prices already up a lot, volatility has been high. But on the demand side of the fundamentals, it is still hard to say anything has clearly broken. I think some of the points being raised are valid. People are mainly discussing two things. The first is token economics - the underlying question is whether current investments (whether in models or data centers) will be supported by future demand and economic returns. The second is data center construction, which in reality reflects cost-of-living pressures on households and the political tug-of-war between the two U.S. parties. The bottom line is that near-term visibility is not the issue, but oil prices and interest rates are making the market unwilling to believe the numbers beyond 2028.