Germany's Consulate in St. Petersburg Russia has closed, after operating for over 50 years. Their coat of arms, the flags of Germany and the European Union, have been taken down. Their staff are required to leave Russia by midnight tomorrow.

INSIGHTS: There’s a TON of very obvious signaling taking place right now for imminent massive escalation against Iran. President Trump, just after Camp David, is returning early to the White House (and reported on by Barak…). Bibi Netanyahu is cutting his U.S. Tour a day early, cancelling the Texas leg, and flying directly back to Tel Aviv from New York. All Middle East US embassies have issued STEP alert warning to Americans in the region. This could certainly be a legitimate escalation… but this is a LOT of very public signaling that is textbook TACO Trump. That said… if it’s not, we’re looking at a MAJOR escalation inbound.

The debasement trade has been crushing it this year, but will that rally continue? Could we even see it extend to crypto? It's impossible to be sure, but it's certainly possible. @jam_croissant dove into the debasement trade, which he is intimately familiar with after years of experience, today on air with @TraderMikeyB and @JermalChandler. Have a listen to his thoughts about what could happen to gold, crypto, and everything in between in this midterm election year! #StockMarket# #Gold# #Crypto# #Bitcoin# #Finance# #Investing#

It's easy to think that the U.S. could not successfully start a sovereign wealth fund like that of Norway, as typically, sovereign wealth funds are backed by some natural resource that a country is rich in.    However, @jam_croissant argues that the U.S. does, in fact, have a natural resource that they are rich in; the U.S. dollar, which carries more weight than any other currency in the world.    Have a listen to Cem's take on how the U.S. could potentially go about establishing a sovereign wealth fund, and let us know in the comments if you agree!   #USA# #NationalDebt# #ForeignAffairs# #Finance# #Economy#

There's been no shortage of discussion about the upcoming midterms and how they may impact the stock market, but what no one seems to mention is that this equation also works the other way around. Stock market performance is very heavily correlated with the results of midterm elections, and as @jam_croissant so eloquently lays out here, the current political administration likely cares a great deal about stock market performance headed into the upcoming election cycle. Have you ever voted based on stock market performance? Let us know in the comments! #StockMarket# #Politics# #Election# #Midterms# #Finance#

Very good Carlyle paper on AI and the tech supercycle. Notable chart is how much of tech sector earnings growth is investment-related, not cash earnings

Underreported 📰: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent & Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are due to meet this weekend in New York on Sunday, Sept 20. Those negotiations appear designed to settle as many trade, rare-earth & technology issues as possible before Trump & Xi sit down. What comes out of that meeting should give us a much clearer indication of whether Xi & Trump will actually neet in DC Sept 24th & what they might actually announce at that time.

Chevron CEO Wirth warned in May that oil inventories were nearly gone. A few SPR barrels remained. China stayed on the sidelines. Today he says the end is reached: commercial stocks drained for 6+ months, strategic reserves largely tapped. Global fuel crisis is here.

FED It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week. Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses. The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle).

REMINDER: They need a credible off ramp from the hyper scaling narrative they’ve been selling for months. Safety concerns are an obvious way to justify the incoming pivot. They also justify taking the whole thing into a closed “Manhattan project” type setting at the government’s expense. This justifies the incoming lockdown. As I predicted in August the scale narrative had run its course due to kimi. Hyper scaling wasn’t about genuine demand expectations. It was about winning the ai race by outspending and bankrupting your competitors. Kimi made that pointless. This is no doubt the asymmetric information Bessent has been alluding to for weeks. There’s going to be a helluva lot of liquidity freed by this move. It’s all going to go flooding into USTs. Happy D day bond guys. 👇

[00:42:40] Cem So, so again, I actually, I’ll say this now, you can highlight it. This will be hopefully another one of those ones that we come back to and say, told you so, a year from now it’s going to be, or so, maybe it’s nine months, maybe it’s a year and three months, I don’t know. But there’s going to be a generational buy opportunity in oil.

“There’s going to be a generational buy opportunity in oil….” 🔮 -Cem Karsan, May 10, 2025 ———————— “Stagflation, Storytelling, & the Search for a New Hero” @TopTradersLive —————- In this episode Cem Karsan argues that structural forces—underinvestment in energy, geopolitics, and the broader macro regime shift toward commodities—could soon lead to “a generational buy opportunity in oil.” Across multiple interviews Cem Karsan repeatedly says the bottom will be identifiable through macro positioning and liquidity signals. These are the 5 main indicators he is watching 👀 for that would suggest the “generational oil🛢️ bottom” is forming. ⸻ 1. Supply Destruction in U.S. Shale Why it matters: Oil cycles historically bottom when producers stop drilling. Karsan notes that if oil drops enough: •Rig counts collapse •Capex budgets get cut •Production growth stalls ⸻ 2. Positioning Washout in Energy Markets Because Karsan runs an options-focused macro fund, positioning is one of his biggest signals. He watches for: •Hedge funds aggressively short oil •Long-only investors capitulating •Energy ETFs seeing large outflows This indicates maximum pessimism. The best commodity entries historically occur when: “everyone believes oil is going much lower.” ⸻ 3. Global Liquidity Turning Back Up Karsan constantly emphasizes liquidity cycles. Oil bottoms often occur when: •Central banks begin adding liquidity again •The market transitions from deflation fear → reflation This is when commodities historically launch into major rallies. Examples he references historically: •2009 oil bottom •2020 COVID oil crash Both coincided with massive liquidity injections. ⸻ 4. Energy Equity Capitulation Karsan often says energy equities usually bottom before oil does. Signs he would watch: •Energy stocks severely underperforming the S&P 500 •Dividend cuts or major pessimism in oil company earnings •Institutional investors abandoning the sector When that happens, value investors begin stepping in. Historically this marked the start of big energy bull markets: •1999 •2009 •2020 ⸻ 5. Geopolitical Supply Shock After supply is destroyed, a small geopolitical disruption can trigger a huge move. Potential triggers Karsan discusses: •Middle East conflict •OPEC production cuts •Sanctions on a major producer •Shipping disruptions When supply is already tight, even a minor shock can cause a violent oil rally. ⸻

Guy who, “hasn't thought about CEM @ all for a long while”, after listening to 1.5 hour long podcast by CEM, decides he needs to post aggressively stating: CEM is a: “Crazy person completely outside his lane with the most clickable of clickbait nonsense.” And that choosing to listen 👂 to CEM’s views: “Is a litmus test… (and) Which guy you listen to is a litmus test for who you are.” —————— Still living rent free 24/7…2 years later. 😂