DO TECHNICALS PREDICT THE FUTURE AND “FRONTRUN” NEWS? Over the last year or two, I think I’ve done a decent job calling out some pivotal moments in the market with a pretty solid hit rate. The top in BTC, the top in quantum/froth, the DRAM crack, among others. I don’t delete tweets or cherry-pick my calls, and I’m certainly wrong plenty of times and take losses like everyone else. In my course, there’s a full record of my market thoughts, documented in my weekly market prep videos. So what exactly does that mean? And perhaps more importantly, what doesn’t it mean? First, no trader knows what’s going to happen. Everything is probabilistic at best and total noise at worst. But there are specific moments in time when the odds can become meaningfully skewed in one direction. I don’t believe technicals somehow “frontrun” the news. What I believe is that technicals help reveal the prevailing sentiment of the market, and that sentiment is the lens through which new information gets interpreted. Think about it. Why did semis sell off alongside SKHY on its earnings? And why did SKHY respond so poorly to its numbers? To some degree, because sentiment was already rolling over, and that deterioration was showing up in the charts. Why does the market suddenly sell off so aggressively on a hot inflation print? Because investors have grown increasingly concerned about oil prices, persistent inflation, and what those pressures mean for interest rates. Why aren’t we seeing the same enthusiastic responses to positive AI headlines that we saw previously? Because investor sentiment has shifted. People are growing increasingly skeptical of the enormous spending and whether the eventual returns will justify it. As a dumb day trader, it’s impossible for me to fully understand any one of these themes, let alone all of them. But what my experience and expertise in technical analysis allow me to do is read the collective footprints of the market’s largest participants, expressed through price action. Those footprints can reveal changes in positioning, conviction, and risk appetite well before the underlying narrative becomes obvious to everyone else. And that’s what makes technical analysis so powerful to me. Price action can tell you that something is changing, even when you don’t fully understand why it’s changing. It can reveal that buyers are becoming less aggressive, that good news is no longer being rewarded, or that sellers are gaining control. None of those observations guarantees what happens next. But when multiple pieces of evidence begin pointing in the same direction, the odds can become increasingly favorable. I don’t believe technicals predict the future. I believe they provide a window into changing market sentiment, which influences how the market responds to whatever comes next. And if you’re able to recognize those subtle shifts before they become obvious, you can sometimes find moments where the probabilities are meaningfully in your favor.

Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech . . . Surprise 2: that person is me Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post …and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline ------- Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere. The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases. Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat. In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally. Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants). In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model. From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team. Why join Anthropic? Three reasons. (1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work. (2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter. (3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing. Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit. Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest). Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI. Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have. It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way. But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember... Gotta Cure 'Em All