#On-chain# metrics analysis The pressure from profit-taking in $BTC has been reduced to its lightest level since data became available. The current reading is 84%, which is 136 percentage points away from the 220% frenzy threshold; and the current dip to around 20% is more thorough than the bottoms of the bear markets in 2017 and 2021. However, 84% only indicates light selling pressure and a cheap price; it is never a buying opportunity in itself. What's truly needed is price structure confirmation: a move above $86,600 would open up further upside, while a drop below $79,700 would indicate the rally was ineffective. The Unrealized Profit Pressure Ratio (excluding ETF entities) measures the extent to which unrealized profits have accumulated in the on-chain tokens. The reading is calculated relative to the overall network cost base, so the higher the reading, the greater the potential selling pressure. The red line at 220% in the figure @ForeDex_Global is the marked frenzy threshold, and the horizontal connection is marked with a dashed line. The chart is composed of three superimposed parts, labeled as Adjusted UPSR (blue line), Bitcoin price (white line, logarithmic scale), and Euphoria 220% (red dashed line). It should be noted that the calculation method includes excluding ETF entities, so low-cost shares in ETF custody addresses will not be included in the cost base. This is crucial: if no exclusion is made, the large amount of shares accumulated by spot ETFs at low levels will systematically suppress the entire reading system, thereby distorting the cycle comparison. In early 2016, mid-2020, and late 2023, the indicator climbed back above 84% after falling below it, followed by three major upward movements lasting several months each. Now, the price has rebounded 37% from its low, and the reading has returned to 84%, exhibiting a pattern similar to those three previous instances. MVRV is 1.54, with the average cost across the entire network estimated at around $54,000; NUPL is 0.38; SOPR is close to 1.00; the Fear & Greed Index is 50; on October 28th, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $137 million, of which IBIT saw $136 million. Profit-taking has been completed, sentiment is neutral, and incremental funds are tentatively returning—it's neither a frenzy nor a crash. After excluding ETFs, the indicator doesn't show the cost basis of ETF holders, resulting in a cleaner reading. It's a thermometer of existing on-chain tokens, not a sentiment indicator for the entire market. ETF funds might provide support today, but they could become new selling pressure tomorrow. 84% is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. No need to guess, just look at the price structure: if it rises above $86,600 and holds, the upside potential is $96,900; if it falls below $79,700, it indicates this rebound is false, and the indicator will fall back below 84%. Don't chase the rise, don't try to guess the bottom, wait for the structure.

Is Dogecoin ($DOGE) worth holding long-term during this bull market? I've always felt that BTC and DOGE should both have a place among the cryptocurrencies that are truly worth holding for the long term. BTC is more like digital gold, with its core value being scarcity and store of value. However, if we look at Satoshi Nakamoto's original concept of peer-to-peer electronic cash, DOGE is closer to that direction. Many people attack DOGE by citing unlimited issuance, but they overlook a crucial point: a fixed annual issuance of approximately 5 billion tokens does not mean the inflation rate will remain constant. As the total circulating supply increases, the proportion of each new issuance will continue to decrease. Currently, the annualized inflation rate is around 3%, and it will continue to decline in the future. Currency doesn't necessarily have to be deflationary. DOGE is designed to prioritize circulation and payments, rather than having everyone lock up their coins as a scarce asset. DOGE is an independent PoW public blockchain, requiring miners to contribute computing power and electricity to maintain the network. Its underlying mechanism differs from tokens issued directly on existing public blockchains. As BTC becomes increasingly financialized and leans more towards a store of value, it has indeed drifted away from its original vision of electronic cash. Coupled with the long-standing debate within the community regarding its future direction, it forces us to consider: Is BTC's current trajectory still in line with Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision? BTC is responsible for storing value, while DOGE is better suited for carrying the payment attributes of digital currency. Their roles are different, and there's no need to argue which is superior. Of course, DOGE's performance is generally in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market. In the early stages of a bull market, BTC and innovative altcoins usually dominate, while in the mid-to-late stages, DOGE and mainstream coins take center stage. The advantage of holding DOGE is that it is a certain opportunity that can accommodate large funds, and the average return rate in a bull market is 5 to 10 times.

To summarize the fundamentals of the most popular altcoin projects in the current market, the differences are actually quite significant. $NEAR: Intended trading is a valuable area, with existing usage and fees generated, and a buyback mechanism in operation. However, if the buyback rate cannot keep up with token issuance, the net supply will still increase. Technological advancements are worth noting, and supply and demand are equally important. $ZEC: The core logic is financial privacy, not protocol revenue. It has its own long-term narrative as the need for transaction blocking and privacy evolves. $TAO: I remain optimistic about its position in the decentralized AI field. The subnet, external clients, and revenue buyback mechanism are all worth studying. However, the key to judging its long-term value lies in determining how much of the subnet's revenue actually comes from real market demand and whether it can cover token emissions. $ZRO: Cross-chain infrastructure has real-world use cases, and Stargate fees also provide a source for buybacks. However, new narratives such as institutional settlement still need time to be validated, and short-term unlocking presents a significant supply pressure. $STRK: The technology and ecosystem applications have a certain foundation, and BTCFi also provides a new direction for development. However, the selling pressure brought by the continuous unlocking is considerable, and whether the demand growth can absorb the new supply needs to be closely observed. $GRASS: One of the projects worth studying in the AI ​​data infrastructure field, its revenue performance provides fundamental clues. However, whether the revenue is sustainable, whether user growth is healthy, and the impact of future token unlocks all require further verification. $HYPE: Its business model and fee capture are very competitive in the crypto industry. Trading activity generates real revenue, and the buyback mechanism creates a more direct link between the token and the protocol's operations. $MORPHO: The lending demand is real, and product and platform integration is progressing. What's more worth observing now is how much value business growth will ultimately bring to the token. $UNI: The fee switch improves UNI's value capture logic, allowing protocol fees to be used to burn tokens. However, this mechanism improvement is only the first step; the actual scale of token burning and revenue growth will be crucial in the future. These projects are not black and white. Some already generate revenue, some are technologically advanced, and some are still in the stage of realizing expectations. However, strong fundamentals do not mean that any price is worth buying.

#On-chain# metrics analysis BTC: Golden cross between the "short-term holder cost line" and the "200-day moving average" When the STH cost line crosses above the 200-day moving average, it indicates that the short-term market cost has been repaired and is once again outperforming the medium- and long-term trends. This is a macroeconomic structural signal, not a short-term buy or sell order. The macro golden cross has been confirmed. The cost of STH is approximately $74,581, while that of 200DMA is approximately $72,200, representing a relative difference of approximately +3.30%. The most recent golden cross occurred on August 25, 2026, and as of October 14, 2026, it has remained above the moving average for approximately 51 consecutive days. The average peak window for a complete historical sample is approximately 30.3 months. After the three golden crosses in 2015, 2019, and 2023, the period to the peak lasted approximately 29–32 months. Currently, we are still in the early stage after the golden cross, so it is more appropriate to track whether the structure is maintained and to confirm this in conjunction with liquidity and spot demand, rather than to use this as a basis for timing. $BTC

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According to CME FedWatch, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by September is 34.2%. The significance lies in the fact that this uncertainty may support the stability of cryptocurrencies in the short term, but high inflation could still put pressure on risk assets.

The BTC valuation cornerstone model shows that the current market is neither a typical bubble top nor an undervalued area. The data in the chart shows that the market value of BTC is approximately $1.29 trillion, of which the realized market value is $1.06 trillion, accounting for 75.3% of the market value. This indicates that the current valuation of BTC is largely supported by the real on-chain cost basis, rather than simply relying on speculative sentiment. The bedrock value is approximately $91.7 billion, accounting for 7.1%. The bedrock multiple has reached 14.0x, indicating that BTC has clearly moved away from the bottom valuation zone, and the current position can no longer be viewed using the undervaluation logic of a bear market. The air premium was $225.7 billion, accounting for 17.6%. This level indicates that there is a certain sentiment premium in the market, but it has not yet entered the extreme bubble state commonly seen at the top of historical bull markets. MVRV is currently at 1.21x, indicating that the market as a whole has unrealized gains, but the extent of these gains is still relatively mild. Compared to the true peak of the cycle, the current on-chain valuation is not significantly overheated. Based on the latest price, BTC is still fluctuating around $64,000, which is close to the level on July 10th shown in the chart, indicating that there is not much change in the short-term structure. My assessment is that BTC remains strong in the long term, and the on-chain funding base has not deteriorated significantly, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at the current level. Next, we'll focus on two key points: First, whether Realised Cap can continue to rise confirms the continued accumulation of real funds. Second, we need to be wary of the rapid expansion of Air Premium. If the air premium continues to increase, we should be cautious that the market is entering a phase of accelerated sentiment. The current strategy is more suitable to wait for confirmation of a breakout or a pullback to buy. The trend hasn't broken, but the risk-reward ratio is no longer as good as in the bottom range.

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$BTC Short-Term Market Analysis Based on the current market conditions, this appears more like a rebound after a sharp drop than a bottom reversal. The market hasn't undergone sufficient accumulation at the bottom, nor has it experienced an extreme crash to clear liquidity. Therefore, the probability of directly starting a new bull market is low. It's more likely that the market will consolidate and form a bottom through a period of fluctuation. It's not yet possible to confirm that the bottom has been reached, but we are getting closer and closer to the true bottom-fishing area. It's not too late to consider increasing your position when the key confirmation signal appears, and I will provide guidance at that time. BTC's short-term price retraced to the 60-day moving average and found support, currently remaining within a valid rebound structure. As long as 61300 holds, the overall strategy remains to buy on dips, with resistance levels at 63400 and 64200, and strong resistance at 65500. For ETH, the key level to watch is the strong resistance around 1850; whether it can break through this level will directly target the 2000 mark.