It was reported today that Leopold’s Situational Awareness acquired 11.62% of Taiyo Yuden (6976). Up from 5.99% as of July 16th. I do agree with his position (if he still has it) in terms of how valuable this MLCC manufacturer is to global AI supply chains.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. CoreWeave $CRWV reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens. 2. Gemini has become $GOOGL Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem. 3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $APP to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed. 4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003. 5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing. 6. Apple $AAPL is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle. 7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $SPCX with 861K contracts, $AAPL with 823K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $AMZN with 568K contracts, $PLTR with 559K contracts, $INTC with 555K contracts, $GOOGL with 546K contracts, and $HTZ with 518K contracts. 9. Supermicro $SMCI reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture. 10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $RKLB and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn. 11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SPCX, $MU, $INTC, $ORCL, and $TSLA, while the top stocks sold were $AAPL, $AVGO, $ADBE, $PYPL, and $AMD. The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders. 12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $BTC $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$LITE earnings transcript TLDRs: - "Our visibility into the timing of CPO scale-up deployments has also sharpened. We remain confident in a demand ramp for our ultra-high-power laser chips in the second half of calendar 2027" H2 2027 start of CPO scale up ramp confirmed from Lumentum for their lead customer. - "We were recently given our first external light source, or ELS, module purchase for delivery by the second half of calendar 2027" ELS industry ramp timelines - "The NPO opportunity is completely additive for us, significantly increasing the optical TAM." More TAM for laser chokepoint club - "we expect the 1.6T transceiver uptake to intensify starting in fiscal Q1 and sustain through calendar 2027." - "Even in CW, we’ve been surprised at our ability to price up" Positive pricing power for $SIVE and the other CW laser players. - "As a result, we are able to command a nice price premium that we expect to sustain, as these Chinese if these Chinese guys come online. I caution people also, I think people are some of these Chinese laser suppliers are not delivering in the market today, so they have there is no recourse when they throw out these big numbers. We have not seen anything like that to date in terms of their output." Chinese players are more behind than markets expect, corroborated by $AAOI and $LITE. - "We are way behind in our shipments, unfortunately, on high-powered lasers" "The demand signal has increased, and we are very much further behind relative to our ability to supply." Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity, continued demand imbalance for EML. Shipping roughly +$50M year end -> $100m+ ("triple digit quarter") into much larger H2 2027 and 2028 scale up demand,. - "So what we are trying to do, I think, really in the last three months is secure even more substrate supply" (because of demand imbalance), "we found additional substrate help from $AXTI They are a great partner." Hello InP substrate bottleneck. TLDR: - Lumentum CPO scale up H2 2027 shipments got confirmed, dismissed any "delay" news as market "noise". (one delay report caused so much damage, and it took Nvidia, Lumentum, and all these companies weeks to do damage control). - CW lasers demand ramp second half of 2027 - Extreme demand imbalance for UHP CW laser capacity surprised Lumentum - UHP lasers commands very high margins and is able to price up CW laser capacity. - China further behind in the laser/capacity angle. Basically just validated timelines + demand/pricing for Western CW laser players. CW laser scarcity is already happening before the main volume ramp even begins...

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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create independent AI compute financing platforms designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The goal is to turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class, helping fund the global buildout of AI factories while giving Nvidia customers access to large pools of capital at attractive rates. Jensen: “In AI, compute is revenue. NVIDIA compute is uniquely suited for this role. It is broadly adopted, flexible across models and workloads, fungible and transferable across customers and operators, and continuously improved through CUDA software. That is why we are bringing the world’s leading long-term capital providers together to independently underwrite AI infrastructure. These financing platforms will help customers access scarce compute at scale and build the DSX AI factories that will power every industry and country in the age of AI.” 2. Meta $META released Muse Glimmer, a new 30B-parameter dense AI model with open weights that can run locally, with weights for Muse Spark 1.2 expected to follow soon. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said he believes everyone will eventually have a personal AI agent that understands them and what they care about. 3. Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for more than 97% of global shipments in 1H26, with volumes more than tripling to 19,100 units. Agibot led the market with a 44% share, while industrial and commercial use cases made up over 70% of shipments. Unitree Robotics is also going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, with its IPO oversubscribed by retail investors by 8000%. 4. Microsoft $MSFT plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September, according to The Information, marking progress after a slower start for its in-house silicon program. Microsoft reportedly plans to expand internal use of Maia while also targeting major external customers. The move could give Microsoft more control over the AI infrastructure powering its services as demand for compute continues to surge. 5. Rocket Lab $RKLB reported Q2’26 revenue of $234M, slightly ahead of estimates of $231M, up 62% YoY. EPS came in at -$0.08 versus -$0.07 expected, while backlog reached a record $2.36B, up 137% YoY. For Q3, Rocket Lab guided revenue to $250M–$265M, above estimates of $239M, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 35%–37%. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 was 41.5%, while net loss was $49.3M. Business highlights included the announced Iridium acquisition and the launch of GHOST, a globally deployable launch system. Management said backlog growth, combined with new Q3 deals, represents more than $1B in new contracts across launch and space systems, positioning Rocket Lab to become a self-launching, tier-1 space power. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 1.9M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MSFT with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 945K contracts, $INTC with 880K contracts, $PLTR with 803K contracts, $AMZN with 778K contracts, and $META with 704K contracts. 7. Hims & Hers $HIMS reported Q2’26 revenue of $753.2M, beating estimates of $700M, up 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.3M versus $47.2M expected, while subscribers rose 19% YoY to 2.891M. U.S. revenue grew 16% YoY to $621.8M, while Rest of World revenue surged 1,641% YoY to $131.4M, helped by the close of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. For Q3, Hims guided revenue to $880M–$900M, well above estimates of $793M. For FY26, the company raised revenue guidance to $3.1B–$3.3B versus $2.93B expected, while reiterating increased conviction in its 2030 targets of at least $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA. 8. Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have been much stronger than expected. With almost 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, Q2 EPS is now projected to rise 30% YoY excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon, well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1. Including those one-time gains, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% YoY. Meanwhile, 76% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, matching last quarter’s beat rate, which was the highest since 2021. 9. Intel $INTC announced a proposed $15B underwritten public offering of common stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including CapEx and working capital. The company said customer demand remains strong, driven by major investment in AI compute, with growth opportunities across physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers. Intel also expects to give underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $2.25B of common stock, while emphasizing that the raise is meant to support growth opportunities, maintain balance sheet strength, and preserve its investment-grade rating. 10. Trading volume across the 7 leveraged ETFs tied to $SKHY SK Hynix has collapsed nearly 90% to less than 100M shares/day after regulators raised the minimum cash deposit required to trade the products, effective July 31. The stock decline and tighter rules have shaken out retail investors who chased the rally, with roughly 1T won ($710M) in retail accounts facing forced liquidation in June and another 993B won ($700M) in July, the two largest forced-liquidation months this year. Margin loan balances have fallen to 27.4T won ($19.3B) as of August 4, the lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates the deleveraging process is now more than halfway complete, though foreign investors remain cautious after selling $30B in June, another $6.2B in July, and $4.3B so far in August. 11. Bank of America is sticking with its call for 75 bps of Fed rate hikes this year despite weaker labor data. U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while prior months were revised down by another 103,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, and labor-force participation slipped. Even with hiring softening, BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September, arguing that inflation remains the central concern. 12. Micron $MU today said customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing as data center demand continues to outstrip supply, with the company saying it cannot meet even half of current customer needs. Management also pointed to demand signals extending multiple years, though it did not provide a specific update to quarterly guidance. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.

I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.

Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem. 3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters. Medium to long term I am still a memory bull, but short term I am somewhat bearish on memory. I currently have no memory position.