This propensity to always default back to the logic and framing of conservatives is literally the Weimar curse and it is very present in today's liberals and they demonstrate how complicit they always have been with the demise of Republics into authoritarian regimes (that historically kill liberals too which is hilarious considering the irony)

Incoming UC Berkeley prof. @sayashk explains how OpenAI could have reduced the Hugging Face incident propensity 100X just by using Codex's default harness settings: "There were just so many things the company could have done. If you figure out what techniques we've had for control, even just using the default settings in the Codex harness, OpenAI's report says that that would have reduced the propensity towards this incident by 100X." "There are so many different classifiers that OpenAI had to deliberately deactivate because this was safety testing. That's another thing to be careful around, is that safety testing itself can be a source of the lack of safety in these evaluations." @UCBerkeley

One of the things I love about Claude Fable 5 is that it knew to use propensity score matching (matching users on activity so you compare like with like) in my retention analysis without me asking. It’s exciting to see Fable 5’s improved judgment across all of its work, from writing emails and docs in Cowork to debugging complex errors in Claude Code

Have been thinking about this more and more lately in this mkt. From our latest qtrly: “We have observed that news is being priced into stocks more quickly, and that there is a higher-than-ever propensity for the market to pull forward investment returns when a stock’s narrative turns favourable and aligns with the thematic du jour. A stock might compress two years’ worth of returns into two months if investors turn giddy about that stock’s narrative and growth prospects. And while there is typically a kernel of truth underpinning an explosive re-rate of a stock, it’s important to recognise when the market has moved too much of a stock’s future gains to the present. Given the wider band in which a stock’s multiple is likely to fluctuate, we believe that more than ever, there are opportunities for value creation in flexing position sizes to take advantage of the multiple de-rate/re-rate cycle.”

Should we start statins for primary prevention in older adults? 2x RCTs are ongoing. In the interim, this propensity score matched analysis found that statins users had lower mortality and MACE independent of frailty status. #MedTwitter# @AGSJournal

“With opinions of Trump and the political environment pretty well locked in, Republican hopes of limiting big losses in the House and holding onto a slim Senate majority hinge on the possibilities that: 1) polling is failing to capture discouraged GOP voters who, while not happy with Trump, will show up on Election Day and support Republican candidates; 2) Republican campaigns are effectively identifying and targeting their low-propensity voters in ways that are not being reflected in the survey data; and 3) undecided voters, like the “doubly disenchanted” my colleague David Wasserman identified, break decidedly in Republicans favor.”

China retail sales growth slows further in August. This is the slowest retail growth in data history, excluding the COVID period and the 1984 and 1990 recessions. It's concerning. Given that disposable income growth is still 4-5%, the propensity to consume must have been very low. Weak consumption reflects the negative wealth effect, as property prices continue to fall and Chinese stocks haven't performed much this year. Policy to boost asset prices and, in turn, consumption is much needed. Given that property is likely beyond immediate help, policy to boost stocks, as it did in late September 2024, will help the economy — a lot.

Patients have become a top-three payor for most health systems, and they're the worst-performing one on every metric that matters: • 25-30 cents to collect a patient dollar vs. 4-5 cents for a commercial dollar • 30-50% yield vs. 95-97% from payors • $44.9B in uncompensated care coming in 2026-2027 I dug into how brand partner Cedar (@CedarNY) is rebuilding patient financial engagement around this shift, including a stat that should end the propensity-to-pay era on its own: accounts with high P2P scores yielded 51% LESS than bills with no score at all. Get the full breakdown between what works and what doesn't in my latest deep dive:

What happens when you compare #ShockwaveIVL# head-to-head with atherectomy in the real world? The results speak for themselves. With 1,005 patients, the ROLLING-STONE Registry is the largest prospective, multicenter study to include a head-to-head comparison of #ShockwaveIVL# and atherectomy in a real-world, all-comers population. The study confirmed strong procedural success and intraprocedural safety with Shockwave IVL. It also demonstrated a favorable 30-day MACE rate and a significantly lower 1-year MACE after propensity score matching compared with atherectomy. Read the full summary:  US Rx only. Safety Info:  Product availability may vary by country.

Looking forward to sharing a prison cell with @GadSaad and @jihadwatchRS if the useful idiots pass this bill in New Jersey. Assembly Bill A1146 (2026–2027 session), sponsored by Assemblyman Joe Danielsen (D) and co-sponsored by other Democrats. Islamophobia: a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness, which may be expressed as hatred toward Muslim persons, including, but not limited to, the following: 1. Hatred or severe disparagement toward Muslim persons or their culture. 2. Hostility and fear of Islam, and as a result, a fear of and aversion to all Muslims or the majority of Muslims. 3. Discrimination, harassment, prejudice, and unequal treatment of Muslim persons or Muslim-majority communities. 4. Exclusion of Muslim persons or Muslim-majority communities from major political and social spheres. 5. Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Muslims (or Muslims as a collective group), especially conspiracies about Muslims entering politics/government/other institutions, the “myth” of Muslim identity having a unique propensity for terrorism, and claims of a demographic threat or Muslim takeover. 6. Rhetorical, violent, or physical anti-Muslim manifestations directed against Muslim or non-Muslim individuals, their property, or Muslim community institutions and religious facilities. 7. Shouting, verbal or physical abuse, pushing, spitting, pulling hijabs from Muslim women, and other prejudicial abuses targeting Muslims. 8. Calling for, aiding, encouraging, supporting, or justifying the killing, harming, or defaming of anyone simply for practicing Islam or exhibiting a Muslim identity or heritage. 9. Expressing an outlook or worldview involving an unfounded dread and dislike of Muslims that results in practices of exclusion and discrimination. 10. Accusing those practicing Islam (or exhibiting Muslim identity/heritage), individually or collectively, of being wholly responsible for any real or imagined wrongdoing by a single Muslim person or group. 11. Accusing Muslim citizens of being more loyal to a transnational Muslim community, their countries of origin, or the alleged priorities of Muslims worldwide than to the interests of New Jersey or the United States. 12. Accusing those practicing Islam (or exhibiting Muslim identity/heritage), individually or collectively, of being wholly responsible for any real or imagined wrongdoing by any Muslim-majority country. 13. Accusing those practicing Islam (or exhibiting Muslim identity/heritage), individually or collectively, of being more loyal to any foreign Muslim-majority country or the alleged priorities of Muslims worldwide than to the interests of New Jersey or the United States.