Francis
@FrancisCashFlow
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I can’t emphasize enough how bullish this is for $nbis
It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now.
The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way.
But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now.
I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either.
With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times.
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100% accuracy
Dario watching Wall Street giving Anthropic Junk Rating when he has the fastest growing company in history, more cash than any other company, and expecting trillions in revenues by 2030:
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the golden age is upon you
$INTC
$qqq's broke down a broadening continuation wedge
$spy at the bottom of this flag/filling into gap
we might see a relief bounce here with confluence of levels, but $vix at 20.83 +21.18%, and DVOL 66% -- still not high enough for me to buy heavily
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$spy pushing into its previous gap from mid-september.
DVOL at 64%, high relative volume over the last month post tech earnings, $vix is hanging out around 20 still.
people have moved into cash ahead of midterms. it looks like we'll get a flush before then, maybe black monday comes since markets don't bottom on Friday's (100x times the charm?)
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Continued historic flows into cash.
Yes, you can finally get something for cash, but this feels extreme.
Past surges have been opportunities. Is this time different?
Nice one from @MacroCharts in his must read report today.
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$vix +14% to 19.7
DVOL from 65% to 62% from open
$spy $qqq finally starting to roll over, making new lows in this correction
we're still a bit away from a selling event. we need $vix higher and capitulation
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If you could blame one person for this bear market, who would it be?
bruh 😂
TRUMP WARNS DEMOCRATIC MIDTERM VICTORY WOULD TRIGGER 1929-STYLE ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
I've made the mistake of putting faith in others before, entering trades purely based on someone else's mental framework and thesis.
let this time be a reminder, that a bull market makes everyone look like a genius, but those who are able to manage their drawdowns and come out positive on the back end, those are the people worth following
trading and investing is more about attrition than anything else
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hate to say it, but the faster we can send $iren $wulf $apld $corz to zero, the better it'll be for $nbis
as these names become smaller, we'd see less sector contagion during pullbacks, capital rotation into relative strength, and differentiation based on underlying fundamentals
the sooner the market stops treating every "neocloud" the same, the better
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Buyer exhaustion is setting in across software, and we're seeing the bearish divergence play out in $NOW, $RDDT, $IGV and others.
AI capabilities are accelerating again, and with that comes another wave of existential fear for the software sector
Ultimately, AI/agents will bring massive amounts of new software to market as the cost and complexity of building it collapse. That's the Jevons paradox: cheaper software creation leads to an explosion in software supply, intensifying competition and putting pressure on margins
Even if these companies aren't outright replaced, their moats will be eroded
Only software that scales with data and bytes, like $snow (data lakes) or digital protection $crwd (cybersecurity) will hold well
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it's probably worth staying away from $IGV heavy software/SaaS exposure in the near term
not something i'd short, especially with $qqq breaking into new highs, but definitely worth being cautious here
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Fluidstack raised 1.5B in Sep-26 at ~18B valuation...
projected revenue $660M for full year FY26 / 1.3GW capacity
for reference, $nbis 3.0 - 3.4B full-year 2026 revenue @ 48B market cap today
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SEEKS TO RAISE MONEY TO BET ON FLUIDSTACK
FUNDING ROUND WOULD VALUE NEOCLOUD FLUIDSTACK AT $40 BILLION
After FOMC, a chance of a rate hike in Dec-26 has declined 5.2%.
The odds of a rate pause have increased to 20.1%
$aaoi bounced from previous gap support at $65.93, reclaiming $78.28. $mrvl acquiring $lite news is bullish for the optical sector, even if the deal falls through.
If we can hold $78.28 (previous candle supports), then we can make another push to 91.51 > 105.76. Earnings coming up, we'll need to see progress on production and no more dilution... at least until later
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$lite +14%, $aaoi saved?
MARVELL $MRVL IS SAID IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY $LITE LUMENTUM HOLDINGS
$NOW with a textbook red candle rejection at key resistance: $158.86
Total Revenue: $4.1B vs. $4.09B expected 🟢
Adj. EPS: $1.00 vs. $1.02 expected 🔴
as I mentioned, we're back to $IGV SaaS-pocalypse 2.0 as capital rotates back into the AI trade
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I cannot overstate just how bullish this is for data centers that haven't sold all of their capacity yet
"I'm going to give you a tagline: No tagline needed!" - @JensenHuang, CEO, @nvidia #NVIDIAGTC# Berlin
Everywhere I look I see dollar signs. This sell off is only getting better and better. If they could send us lower that’d be great
Even with the drop today, DVOL @ 51 & $VIX under 18. They just won’t sell…
bought some more $nbis @ $160.58 and added some call debit spreads for Jan 2027
CITI news removes the financing fears, so you know this is all a dip buying exercise
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+ $nbis secured 3.5B from Citi @ SOFR + 2.75-3.50%
+ BofA maintains 310 $nbis price target
fundamentals only improving, despite the broader sell-off in the index
once volatility comes down and the war deescalates, $nbis will take back off to new highs
I’m hoping we can see a larger move below 160 with $vix well over 20. yields already rolling over, just need oil to stop and things will reverse drastically
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+ $nbis secured 3.5B from Citi @ SOFR + 2.75-3.50%
+ BofA maintains 310 $nbis price target
fundamentals only improving, despite the broader sell-off in the index
once volatility comes down and the war deescalates, $nbis will take back off to new highs
I’m hoping we can see a larger move below 160 with $vix well over 20. yields already rolling over, just need oil to stop and things will reverse drastically
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