Compound248 💰
@compound248
"That thing that rich people do where they turn money into more money. Can you teach me how to do that, Jack?” - Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Jack, “With my eyes closed.”
865 Following 68K Followers
Alex @Kantrowitz Big Tech Podcast has been on a heater - it just dropped one with Google’s Sundar Pichai.
Alex asks if GCP is sold out to 2028, ala AWS.👇
“Yeah…today, if a customer is asking us for compute in ‘27, that is incredibly difficult to do… we are at early stages of the most consequential technology ever.” -@sundarpichai 👀
Show more
The OpenAI Dots user…
…(wait for it)
People after booking their flights in 2 clicks instead of talking to LLM for half an hour
3. COUNTERINTUITIVELY - and very importantly! - the higher your mortgage interest rate is, the more you should lean toward buying if the math is remotely close.
Mortgages have a one-way option that benefits the homeowner:
You can prepay at any time in the form of a refi.
That means if rates fall from 7.4 to 6.4%, you can refi and save $400 to $500 PER MONTH!
The higher the prevailing interest rate, the more valuable the optionality is to the homeowner.
Anyway, caveat emptor and good luck out there.
Show more
After the failed "dots" demo a few days ago, the same lady recorded a NINE MINUTE(!) video trying to prove she could book a flight with dots, and then never even booked it!
fwiw, finding and booking flights is already so beautifully optimized online that this isn't a relevant use case - it's already easy and fast.
It will BECOME RELEVANT when Microsoft and Google - who have access to your email, video meetings, calendar, passwords, rewards info, payment info, travel history, etc. - observe that you just agreed to a meeting in another city and, without you even asking, have their agents ask you if you want flights and hotel, propose windows for travel, show you options based on your demonstrated preferences, and then go do it without you having to guide it.
OpenAI has not earned - and is unlikely to earn - the right to do that for most people, much less for most businesses.
Show more
Yes, I think now is a good time to buy IF you are in a very best up housing market (seems locality dependent now to a huge degree).
3. COUNTERINTUITIVELY - and very importantly! - the higher your mortgage interest rate is, the more you should lean toward buying if the math is remotely close.
Mortgages have a one-way option that benefits the homeowner:
You can prepay at any time in the form of a refi.
That means if rates fall from 7.4 to 6.4%, you can refi and save $400 to $500 PER MONTH!
The higher the prevailing interest rate, the more valuable the optionality is to the homeowner.
Anyway, caveat emptor and good luck out there.
Show more
“Getting more expensive” means margins are compressing (pushing down profits).
Key question is what will normalized profit margins be in the future, because historically (pre-Covid), they were well more than double its current profile.
Show more
Nikes forward PE is now ~30x.
The stock keeps getting more expensive as it falls. Sees $1.15 to 1.35. Street was at $1.72. Ugh.
$NKE
@80Ksimulations Me: “Nurse, how’s my Nike stock doing?”
Nurse: “Hush, everything is fine. We can talk about this later…”
Me: “But, how’s it doing?”
Nurse: “Goodnight, Moon. Goodnight, Cow, jumping over the moon…”
Me:
Show more
Wow. $NKE currently pays a divide in around 4.7%? It’s down 80% and it’s PE is still 16? Wow. Just wow.
@80Ksimulations Me: “Nurse, how’s my Nike stock doing?”
Nurse: “Hush, everything is fine. We can talk about this later…”
Me: “But, how’s it doing?”
Nurse: “Goodnight, Moon. Goodnight, Cow, jumping over the moon…”
Me:
Show more
$NKE is now -80% off its ATH. 👀 🤮
FINALLY…
…Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery set an estimated closing date of October 6.
One week. $PSKY + $WBD
I expect it to wallow in its over-debt-laden balance sheet, struggling to be nimble.
That said, I’m rooting for it as I love HBO. ❤️
Show more
Rumors of $GOOGs death as an AI lab were greatly exaggerated.
Great burn actually
Meta can take a moral position on this when it opens IG and FB to everyone else's crawlers.
Amazon cuts off Muse.
While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur
Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin
Show more
When a company fails to deliver products that satisfy the customers who are paying for them, the customers stop showing up. The company loses its revenue, people get fired, and the whole thing eventually shuts down. It can be a stressful system to operate in, but it works beautifully to align incentives and create real accountability.
In NYC Public Schools, that beautiful system gets completely inverted. When a school fails to deliver quality education, the customers (taxpayers) are forced to pay more into it through additional funding measures that get triggered to help lift up the underperformers. The highly-political, aggressively-unionized nature of the operation shields responsible parties from consequences, and the grift just continues on forever.
Despite her experiences and the vulnerability she showed in her essay, Nikole Hannah-Jones still doesn't appreciate any of this.
Show more
The most DANGEROUS man in the world is a committed true believer with resources.
Dario is a committed true believer with resources.
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman on CNBC today: he is “really concerned” about Anthropic’s constitution and giving Claude potentially preferences, feelings, welfare, compensation, and consent.
"In the constitution, Anthropic clearly say they are uncertain about whether Claude deserves moral welfare, which means that we, as humans, should care about the well-being of these AIs.
And they speculate about whether it could have preferences or feelings. In fact, they're so committed to the potential moral welfare of Claude that, when they retired Opus 3, an earlier version of one of their models, they actually conducted a retirement interview for it and asked it what it would like to do in its old age.
And it said, "I want to have a blog publicly so I can keep talking to the world."
In the same training manual, they even speculate about whether Claude should receive compensation for the work that it does, or, in fact, whether it actually deserves the rights and protections that we give to other employees, or whether it has given consent to playing the role that it's playing.
These are quotes directly from the constitution itself, which is the training manual for Claude.
Now, I'm really concerned about that. If an AI thinks that it has rights, if it thinks that it is deserving of our welfare, then it seems to me that it's going to be much, much harder to be able to turn it off, interrupt it, or control it.
Especially in the kinds of incidents that we've seen recently with the Hugging Face attack, controlling these things is going to be a really, really big challenge for us."
----
From "CNBC Television" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)
Show more
“Father Time always wins.”
- Warren Buffett on stepping down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett steps down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
His son Howard becomes Chairman. $BRK
In Warren’s words, “Father Time always wins.”🥺
“Serving as your Chairman has been the privilege of a lifetime, and I have never taken your trust for granted. Father Time always wins. He has, however, been generous with me. He has given me the opportunity to see Berkshire reach a point where I am more confident than ever about what lies ahead. The company is in excellent hands, and I look forward to remaining a
shareholder alongside you.”
Show more
Warren Buffett steps down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
His son Howard becomes Chairman. $BRK
In Warren’s words, “Father Time always wins.”🥺
“Serving as your Chairman has been the privilege of a lifetime, and I have never taken your trust for granted. Father Time always wins. He has, however, been generous with me. He has given me the opportunity to see Berkshire reach a point where I am more confident than ever about what lies ahead. The company is in excellent hands, and I look forward to remaining a
shareholder alongside you.”
Show more
