Conor Sen
@conorsen
Founder of the Housing Frame on Substack. Housing, markets, economy. Ex-@opinion. Suburban dad. The future is a policy choice.
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“the Centre Square complex opened in 1974” — the story of so many older office buildings across the US
It shows how uncomfortable Americans are with the concept of being rich that we’ve made up a new term to describe it.
Can’t stop thinking about the term “post-economic”
I fear it has wormed itself deep into the crevices of my brain, never to be dislodged
Someone should burn some tokens analyzing economic sensitivity to diesel by Congressional district and comparing that to polling.
Big Oil is telling us we can’t embargo diesel. IF TRUE THEY STILL DONT HV TO MAKE SAME PROFIT OFF US FARMERS AND TRUCKERS THAT THEY MAKE IN FOREIGN SALES
AMERICA FIRST
ICE has become a bigger issue for the housing industry in recent months, as noted in this broad regional commentary from homebuilders we surveyed in early September:
The recruitment opportunity in higher ed for awhile has been going after kids with 1300+ SATs from families who earn pretty good money but don’t want to spend $90k/year on undergrad.
"When Alabama started going after out-of-staters, it focussed on 2 types of places ...prosperous suburbs around Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Miami, & LA ...also courted applicants from bedroom communities around NY, DC, Seattle, Boston, & eventually Chicago"
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Yeah. This is a general phenomenon that explains why most heterodox worldviews are over-represented by sundry weirdos and misanthropes. People who lack the “fitting in” gene (so to speak) will always get there before others.
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Highlight package of a 52-year old Ichiro striking out Japan’s top high school girl baseball players wild. He legit does not give AF. Uses every pitch in his arsenal.
Something changed in Nashville a year ago.
$5M home sales doubled in the last 12 months.
Zillow forecasting a decline in existing home sales but accelerating rent growth:
Noteworthy that where polls are surprising they’re showing heartland/southern states being surprisingly strong for Dems and parts of the Midwest/northeast being competitive for Republicans.
I just keep seeing more nonsense on the timeline. Folks, there is ZERO INCONSISTENCY between both New Hampshire and Kansas being competitive.
BOTH CAN HAPPEN IN THE SAME YEAR, AND IT’D BE VERY NORMAL. Large ranges of swings happen in EVERY midterm.
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1-year forward 2s topping 5%
New Housing Frame: The housing market correction has played out pretty differently in the “two Atlantas” — here’s how that looks at the zip code level using visualizations from the @ResiClub_HQ Terminal:
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GS: We expect $420 billion of global IG debt issuance directly from the hyperscalers in 2027
One of the best things I heard this week was in the 2010s the Fed was reluctant to go against the market’s dovish expectations and perhaps the Warsh Fed will be reluctant to go against the market’s hawkish expectations.
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10% GDP growth might sound fun on the Dwarkesh pod but in real life the Fed would have to nuke the economy (don’t say that we could get 10% real growth and 8% deflation, it doesn’t work that way).
West Coast: we're approaching an economic transformation unlike anything in modern history.
East Coast: we're looking at three more years of 2.1% GDP growth.
The NYT/Siena Texas poll is gonna hit so hard on here.
West Coast: we're approaching an economic transformation unlike anything in modern history.
East Coast: we're looking at three more years of 2.1% GDP growth.
Lennar saying labor availability is starting to become an issue -- deportations and data centers.
The more I think about it, the Fed is probably going to keep hiking at least until stocks are below the 200-day moving average.
@conorsen Re: balances... seeing that growth across all income cohorts too, and in excess of inflation, which is super encouraging
That wall consumers were supposed to hit because excess savings had been run down just never happened
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