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Jan van Eck
@JanvanEck3
Investments. Podcasts. History as a guide to the future. Looking to learn. @NYIslanders fan. @VanEck_US
316 Following    22.9K Followers
Super honored that our latest update is tracking to be our most-viewed ever, over 64k. The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan va... via @YouTube @vaneck_us
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“Bitcoin is an intangible asset but two-thirds of US GDP is generated from intangible assets and we have ways to value them.” @matthew_sigel
Thanks Molly. This is a non-profit moonshot! If we follow the mammogram playbook (40 M annual mammograms) we will save 50k lives a year! Heart attacks are the #1# killer & a dumb way to die. The CAC heart scan at $100 & 15 mins should be the standard of care! 🤍❤️🇺🇸
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senator Cynthia Lummis says "Democrats simply won't" vote yes on the Clarity Act, "no matter what we put in the text." "We've given you everything you’ve asked for, yet you keep holding the bill hostage, demanding more and more and more." 👀
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Elon Musk says Anthropic puts more care into AI safety than OpenAI and explains how rival companies should test one another’s models. “All the AI companies have a test harness, a series of tests that you give to any model to see if it’s going to build bioweapons or nuclear bombs or be deliberately deceptive. Everyone applying everyone else’s test harness is probably the best thing we can do to ensure our safety. We should try to do that as soon as possible.” “It’s the only thing I can think of that we could probably get all parties, including China, to agree to. You basically provide API access in advance of the model release. If they don’t solve what’s problematic, competitors can go public with the fact that they think the model being released is unsafe. The legal liability would be enormous.” “The two leading AI companies are Anthropic and OpenAI. Their models are quite close in capability, so it’s difficult for either one to slow down without handing the lead to the other. On balance, I think Anthropic puts more care into their safety than OpenAI. But even Anthropic acknowledges they are worried about their models. Many people from Anthropic have publicly voiced concern that their models are scaring them, that they’re getting scary smart.”
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I’ve listed to this 3-4 times already. So many insights and different perspectives on the Civil War. @vaneck_us
9/11 is Death Loss Personal bravery Community At heart we are a TOLERANT country and NY is a tolerant city. Took the train and subway today with first responders in uniform, people like me who were in NYC years, and young people who were too young. @25YearsAgoLive
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My 9/11 story is mostly a reporter story. I was working in New York for NHK, Japan’s national broadcaster. News reporters generally don’t get in particularly early. I did. On September 11, 2001, I was the first one in the office, around 8:40 a.m. Six minutes later, the first plane hit the North Tower. I remember squinting at the small monitors lining the office wall, trying to understand what I was looking at. A small plane? An accident? I called the only friend I had who worked downtown. Thankfully, he hadn’t left for work yet. Our most experienced cameraman arrived just after 9. Together we watched the second plane hit at 9:03. Within minutes, we grabbed our gear and were out the door. This was 2001. No smartphones, no social media, no ubiquitous live streaming. Information was fragmentary. If we wanted to know what was happening downtown, we had to go downtown. The first cabbie refused to take us. We found another who would. We made it to Canal Street and Sixth Avenue. By then, a steady stream of people was heading north on foot, away from Lower Manhattan. We faced south with our camera while almost everyone else was moving north. We interviewed people as they passed, asking what they had seen and recording their stories. I remember the fear etched on their faces. There was something voyeuristic about pointing a camera at people who were scared and fleeing. But that was the job. At 9:59, the South Tower fell. At 10:28, the North Tower followed. Shell-shocked and mostly silent, we reversed course uptown to the bureau. We had footage and interviews that needed to get to Tokyo. I worked the rest of the day and eventually walked home late that night. There wasn’t much sleeping. I was an early-to-work person before September 11, and I still am. In a way, I was lucky to be at my desk at 8:40 that morning. So many of the other early risers that day, already at their desks in the World Trade Center or aboard early flights out of Boston, were not. I often think about the nearly 3,000 souls we lost that morning, and the extraordinary bravery of so many who ran toward the danger. The U.S. stock markets traditionally observe a moment of silence at 9:25 a.m. on September 11. Tomorrow, I’d be grateful if you would join us in remembering them. 🇺🇸
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🇺🇸 The Boatlift That Was Bigger Than Dunkirk At 10:45 a.m. on September 11, 2001, a Coast Guard lieutenant named Mike Day keyed a radio in New York Harbor and said the only sentence that mattered. “All available boats. This is the United States Coast Guard. Anyone wanting to help with the evacuation of Lower Manhattan, report to Governors Island.” The boats were already coming. The bridges were closed. The tunnels were closed. The subways were dead. South of the towers, hundreds of thousands of people had nowhere left to walk. Some jumped into the Hudson. Some stood on seawalls that were never meant to be docks and waited for anything that floated. Dunkirk took nine days to pull 338,226 Allied soldiers off a beach in 1940. On 9/11, roughly 800 mariners on about 150 vessels moved as many as 500,000 civilians off Manhattan in about nine hours. Ferries. Tugs. Dinner boats. Pilot boats. Yachts. A retired fireboat. Rubber dinghies that held two people. The largest water evacuation in history. NY Waterway did not wait for the official call. After the second plane hit, the whole fleet moved. Captain Rick Thornton nosed his ferry against a seawall that was not a slip and started taking people off. Some of them he pulled out of the river. His company alone carried about 158,000 people to Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, Brooklyn, and Queens. On a normal Tuesday they carried 34,000. The Staten Island Ferry moved more than 50,000 people and came back the other way with water, bandages, and men who still had work to do in the dust. The old fireboat John J. Harvey, already retired, tied up near the Museum of Jewish Heritage, took civilians off the seawall, then pumped water when the hydrants downtown died. Lt. Day later admitted what the day required. “I broke more rules that day than probably I’ve enforced in my whole Coast Guard career.” In raw numbers it was bigger than Dunkirk. No boat went down. By nightfall the southern tip of Manhattan had been emptied by people who were not on anyone’s list of heroes when the morning started. They were tug captains. Ferry deckhands. Pilots. A lieutenant with a microphone. Ordinary boats answering one sentence. All available boats.
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Remarkable statistic: Prior to Western Michigan, college football teams were 110,352 - 0 when leading after the end of regulation, dating back to 1869.
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No one knows when or how the deficit will impact the markets and economy, but here’s one datapoint from an influential voice. @matthew_sigel @pboockvar
Chamath: “If you see the 30 year at 6%, it is the beginning of a death spiral.” @chamath: “We are supposed to be in the middle of an enormous financial build-out to support AI. And if you go all the way back, like 100 years, the Industrial Revolution, the Grand Bargain, all of this stuff, the United States government was the balance sheet. They are the ones that were able to step in. And unfortunately, because of its financial situation, the US government is not able to do that. That's why, thank God, we have companies like Nvidia, and Google, and Microsoft, and Meta, and Amazon who take on that burden. There's so much chirping, by the way, on the internet about the balance sheet of Nvidia and blah, blah, blah, and I think people completely miss that these guys are putting the entire US economy on their back.”
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“Don’t picnic on a hotel carpet.” Not a problem for the @vaneck_us intern.
This discussion entirely misses the unbelievably stimulative US gov’t spending since COVID. THIS is why the economy did ok after the 2022 interest rate hikes. The gov’t deficit is an underappreciated support to the economy and markets. Deficits are slightly shrinking now but that is not a big risk to markers now. However, gov’t overspending is creating its own macro risk long term.
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Everyone calls AI the next railroad bubble. But Jan Van Eck pushes back hard. "Not all technologies are a bubble." Utilities in the US never had an implosion. The car industry had consolidation but never collapsed from overcapacity. The railroad bubble happened because of fragmentation. AI is different. The vertically integrated players control the full stack. "Not all the companies will be a winner" - but the mega-trend itself? That's not a bubble. FT @JanvanEck3 @vaneck_us.
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Google’s power move is to undercut the entire token market by making Gemini free for consumers AND by going open source like they did with android Keep all the clever hooks in the open source models to Google franchises like YouTube, Gmail, search, android, play store, ad networks, Google suite etc The android playbook applied hard to frontier model space
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