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Josh Man
@JoshMandell6
Salomon Brothers 90-98 Bond Portfolio Analysis Government Desk - Long Bond Trader Derivatives - Short-Dated Options Trading (Head) Caxton Assoc Hedge Fund
1.4K Following    147K Followers
Making the Great Lakes great again 😏 next: Canadian geese are going to be renamed American geese
Green candles burning bright seven days in a row. It's beginning to feel a lot like Hanukkah. $ASST
The Bitcoin Nazi: "No dip for you!"
We're playing by Price is Right rules here for the next five days:
When I see someone begin a post with "Unpopular Opinion:", I immediately expect to see something like "poop is delicious". Instead, what follows is never as obvious as that.
I have three female cows, also known as heifers. They aren't bullish enough.
"Eating their lunch" $ASST
Yesterday at market close, Strive surpassed Wendy’s in market capitalization. Wendy’s has ~14,900 corporate employees and ~7,400 restaurants worldwide. Strive has ~35 employees.
It's getting so hot that I had to buy a new air conditioning condenser. This is the one I bought because @LynAldenContact said that nothing stops this Trane.
Bessent may see himself as the nation’s top bond salesman, but ultimately Warsh will become the buyer of last resort. We're just washing the trade, water flowing underground. Same as it ever was. @LawrenceLepard, @jameslavish
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“As Treasury Secretary, my job is to be the nation’s top bond salesman. And Treasury yields are a strong barometer for measuring success.” -- Bessent, November 2025
"Druckenmiller goes even further, arguing that buying long-duration Treasuries while issuing short-term bills effectively removes duration from the market and begins to resemble a small-scale form of QE conducted by Treasury rather than the Fed."
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STAN DRUCKENMILLER BLASTS BESSENT’S TREASURY BOND BUYBACK STRATEGY Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Scott Bessent’s former boss, is sharply criticizing the Treasury Secretary’s attempt to push down long-term yields. In a new WSJ op-ed, Druckenmiller argues Treasury’s decision to double long-dated bond buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation risks crossing the line from liquidity management into outright yield suppression. “Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests.” Druckenmiller argues there is no obvious market dysfunction requiring intervention. Treasury auctions are functioning, volatility is contained and markets remain orderly. With inflation above target, deficits around 6% of GDP and national debt above $40T, rising yields may simply be the bond market appropriately pricing America’s deteriorating fiscal position. Suppressing those yields also removes one of the few remaining forces imposing fiscal discipline on Washington. Druckenmiller goes even further, arguing that buying long-duration Treasuries while issuing short-term bills effectively removes duration from the market and begins to resemble a small-scale form of QE conducted by Treasury rather than the Fed. And once traders believe Treasury is defending a particular level of yields, they have an incentive to test just how committed officials are to that defense. His solution is simple. Let the bond market determine the price of government borrowing and fix the underlying fiscal problem through lower deficits, entitlement reform and better debt management. The criticism is particularly notable given the history here. Bessent worked for Druckenmiller at Duquesne Capital Management after both had worked under George Soros. There was a compelling story that some of the greatest macro minds of their generation were finally in positions to confront America’s fiscal problem. Druckenmiller’s op-ed throws some serious cold water on that idea. If Washington refuses to address the underlying fiscal problem, increasingly aggressive attempts to suppress yields may only invite the bond market to test its resolve.
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There is a good chance that @Strive becomes the 2nd largest Bitcoin Treasury in 2027, but I prefer that ASST goes to $300+ and just being in the top 5.
Key bullish milestones for Bitcoin and @Strategy in 2026: ₿ rises above its 50-week moving average: $82K ₿ rises above its Jan 1, 2026 opening price: $87.5K MSTR above $149.77: 2030A converts move ITM MSTR above $183.19: 2028 converts move ITM MSTR above $204.33: 2032 converts move ITM MSTR above $232.72: 2031 converts move ITM MSTR above $433.43: 2030B converts move ITM MSTR at $434: ~$5.2 billion, or 78%, of its listed convertible-note principal is in the money->making that debt more equity-like and improving Strategy’s Net leverage, even though it is currently ~0% Strategy’s BTC reserve surpasses $100 billion—either with its current 840,447 BTC at ~ $119,000 per Bitcoin, or with 1 million BTC at $100,000 per Bitcoin.
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I think they will sanction a large Chinese bank. One of the top ten. I'm not sure what the rank. More rally in Bitcoin and gold I would guess. How else will we ever get out of this mess?
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What's he going to do? Make them by long bonds?
Holding $ASST is like having an ownership stake in the fastest horse in the race and placing a winning bet on it at the same time.
A lot of fours going on there.