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Patrick Moorhead
@PatrickMoorhead
Founder, CEO, Chief Analyst @MoorInsStrat. Co-founder of @TheSixFiveMedia and @Signal_65. Ex-AMD CVP & Fellow, Compaq and AltaVista dot-com bomb participant.
4.8K Following    70K Followers
$LSCC Q3: BEAT and raise, and up ~3% after hours, a muted move for a stock down 29% in a month. FPGA revenue alone was $251.9M, +89% and $22M over the top of its own guide, by my math. Core acceleration, not AMI math, as I said in August. The numbers: -Revenue $291.0M, +118% YoY, vs $255.9M est: BEAT -Non-GAAP EPS $0.72 vs $0.55 est: BEAT -Non-GAAP gross margin 70.9% vs 69.5% guide: BEAT -Q4 guide $335M; non-GAAP EPS $0.84 vs $0.64 est: BEAT Takeaways: 1. The +118% includes two months of AMI, $39.1M. By my math FPGA grew 25% QoQ, and Q4 is guided +15% QoQ with industrial and embedded at +70% YoY. 2. Non-GAAP gross margin slipped 80bps with AMI inside, not the 220bps the guide implied. My math. Non-GAAP operating margin hit 41.1%; Q4 gross margin is guided to 72%. 3. FPGA plus AMI firmware makes Lattice the AI rack's control plane. It leads OCP's SCMP workstream with AMD, Arm, Intel and Microsoft. @latticesemi
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$QCOM HBC is now validated silicon, not an Investor Day slide. @Qualcomm has first-gen High Bandwidth Compute running in its San Diego lab, with the full memory read-write path and near-memory compute at production-representative sizes. -18x effective memory bandwidth vs. LPDDR5X, the same 18x it promised in June -More than 5x the bandwidth per watt of HBM4 Coming out of Investor Day, I said the open question was execution timing, not credibility. This is the first hard proof point on execution. It is still lab silicon. The next test is stacked-DRAM yields at volume and tokens per dollar when AI250 samples in 1H 2027.
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Memory bandwidth has been the limiting factor for LLM inference for a while now, and anyone building out inference capacity is paying for it in power and in cost per token. @Qualcomm has been talking about High Bandwidth Compute as its answer to that problem, and today it showed first-generation HBC silicon working in its San Diego lab, running the full memory read-write path and near-memory compute at production-representative sizes. The numbers Qualcomm is sharing are big, with 18x the effective bandwidth of LPDDR5X and more than 5x the bandwidth per watt of HBM4. Those are Qualcomm estimates, normalized from ATE testing and compared against published competitor specs, so I'll want to see how they translate once HBC is sitting inside a full accelerator. That first accelerator will likely be Dragonfly AI250, which Qualcomm expects to sample in the first half of 2027 as part of its Dragonfly Rack platform. A data center product has already taped out and early bring-up of the bonded DRAM stack is apparently yielding well, which tells me this has moved past the research phase. Qualcomm has more than a decade of experience bonding DRAM onto logic from its mobile business, but HBC is the first time I've seen that work pointed directly at data center inference economics. If HBC delivers anything close to those efficiency numbers in a shipping system, the market impact could be significant. HBM supply has been one of the tightest constraints on AI infrastructure buildouts, and it is a big part of what makes today's accelerators (and basically everything else!) so expensive. An inference platform that gets its bandwidth from a different memory approach would give hyperscalers and cloud providers another lever on cost and supply, and it would put real pressure on NVIDIA and AMD in the inference tier, where tokens per dollar per watt matter more than peak training performance. Silicon is only part of what these customers are buying, though. Hyperscalers commit to a platform for years, and they need confidence in a multi-generation roadmap, a mature software stack, supply they can count on and support when things break at scale. Qualcomm walked away from its Centriq server CPU effort in 2018, and data center buyers have long memories. The HBC results are a strong technical step, and the next couple of years will determine whether Qualcomm can prove it is the kind of reliable, long-term partner these companies need.
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Intel 14A .9 PDK is out and that's a big deal. The company's foundry wafer future will depend on the success of this and the susequent improvements to get to 1.0.
Pod is up!
Cloud growth is outrunning the cash that funds it. @awscloud hit its fastest growth in five years as Amazon's free cash flow falls to -$42B. @Oracle expands beyond @NVIDIA, while @AnthropicAI's S-1 raises the stakes on a $2T valuation. @PatrickMoorhead and @danielnewmanUV unpack the headlines on Ep. 325 of The Six Five Pod. $ORCL $AMZN Tune in: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:03:42 - Anthropic S-1 Filing Discussion 00:10:30 - Oracle's AI World + Investor Day Highlights 00:19:48 - Gemini 4 Carbon + Other Models 00:22:24 - Intel's Quantum Ambitions 00:29:31 - The Flip: Neocloud Consolidation Debate 00:35:52 - Bulls and Bears: Microsoft Earnings 00:37:17 - Alphabet Earnings 00:39:35 - ServiceNow Earnings 00:41:11 - Amazon Earnings 00:43:52 - Intel's Earnings and Future
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I've said @MarvellTech times and integrates its M&A well. The $115B all-stock deal for @Lumentum is the biggest test yet. $MRVL $LITE Inphi brought the DSPs, Celestial AI the photonic fabric, Lumentum the lasers, the scarcest part of the AI network. Right strategy, big price.
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$MRVL TO ACQUIRE $LITE IN $115B ALL-STOCK DEAL Marvell has agreed to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $115B in enterprise value, combining two major suppliers of AI infrastructure and optical networking technology. Under the agreement: • Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each LITE share, implying roughly $1,132 per share. • The offer represents a 23.9% premium to unaffected closing prices on October 28. • Marvell shareholders will own approximately 67% of the combined company, with Lumentum shareholders holding 33%. The deal brings together Marvell's custom AI chips, networking switches and interconnect technology with Lumentum's lasers, optical transceivers and optical circuit switching capabilities. The bigger opportunity is the growing shift from copper to optical connectivity as AI data centers require faster data transfer, greater bandwidth and improved power efficiency. Marvell says the combination could expand its addressable market to $550B, allowing it to offer more integrated connectivity solutions across AI data centers and within advanced chip packages. The companies also expect: • More than $1B in annual run-rate cost synergies. • Improved long-term revenue growth and profit margins. • Accretion to Marvell's adjusted EPS in the first year after closing. Matt Murphy will remain CEO of the combined company, with the transaction expected to close in H1 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. Separately, Marvell reaffirmed the midpoint of its fiscal Q3 revenue guidance while narrowing the expected range to ±2% from ±5%.
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Both Ohio and Dallas football teams stunk it up 💩but Max did win it!!
Wrecked mine too. And why I don’t trade on margin.
Yesterday’s market meltdown completely wrecked my sleep. 🥲
@PatrickMoorhead Qwen Flash Next Q3 - 64gb DRAM - 4070ti 40-60tps the gamer in question
“The more you buy the more you save”. Sound familiar? $NVDA
Most software devs I know are PC gamers. Does Sam really want to alienate this segment?
OpenAI CEO says it's 'quite terrible' for your PC to have RAM — Sam Altman says data centers offer better utilization
I do try and smile on camera!! It was a busy week.
Here's what I said on @theinformation's TITV with @akashparichha on $INTC, currently down ~29% at $65.53: 1. Is this all out of Intel's hands? Substrates are short and Windows PCs are weak; Microsoft guided Windows OEM down mid-30s. It's an industry issue, but I'll hold final judgment until AMD reports. 2. OK with no free cash flow in 2027? Yes. Foundry capex is a requirement. Data center margin is 41% vs 23% a year ago; foundry loses 28 cents per revenue dollar, similar to hyperscalers going FCF negative to build capacity. AMD doesn't have to deal with this. 3. When does foundry make money? 2029 or 2030 (my belief, not what company is saying). The customer packaging announcements Lip-Bu said are coming in the next two quarters matter. 4. Who are the customers? Likely Google and AWS on packaging. On wafers, I believe Nvidia and Apple come first: they need a second source and need more US manufacturing and capacity. 5. Read-through to $AMD? Data center is full steam ahead, and TSMC will do AMD favors. PC demand isn't gone: PCs don't live 7 to 10 years.
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Here's what I said on @SquawkStreet with @SaraEisen and @carlquintanilla on $INTC, down ~28% at $66.16: 1. Does the reaction make sense? It really doesn't. People bought Intel in the $120s for foundry, and nothing changed there, though execution questions are fair. Everyone knew PCs would be way down; Intel could have flagged it sooner. 2. Does PC weakness slow foundry and AI? In 2027, server and PC chips align on 18A and 18A-P, and that's where Intel makes a lot more money. PC demand doesn't go away. Memory relief looks like 2028, not 2027. 3. $AMD has handily beaten Intel over six months. Risk in AMD's quarter? Less. Both face the same PC inventory issues, but TSMC is going out of its way to supply AMD wafers. It's $TSMC's foundry vs Intel's. 4. How long is the turnaround? Lip-Bu never promised a couple of years. It's multiyear, with some execution hiccups. If $AMD shows the same substrate pain next week, Intel's problems are the market's. I don't think it will. @intel $INTC
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Headed on @CNBC at 11 EST at the top of the show to break down the $INTC quarter, the guide, and long-term prognosis.
Headed on @CNBC at 11 EST at the top of the show to break down the $INTC quarter, the guide, and long-term prognosis.
$INTC off the call. 10 things not in the release that were meaningful: 1. Five-year view: Intel sees server CPU TAM up to 5x, $40B to $200B+. Agents, agents, agents. 2. This year and next: server CPU units, all vendors, up 30%+ each year, with shortages into 2028. 3. Q4: data center up mid-teens QoQ, client down 20%+ on inventory cuts. 4. Israel fab outage: ~$300M of Q4 revenue, ~2 points of gross margin, nearly all 10nm server chips. Q1 revenue hit similar. 5. PC weakness frees wafers: Oregon's Panther Lake 18A capacity shifts to Intel 3 Xeon, 2H27. 6. PC units -12% in 2026, -10% in 2027; no memory relief seen in 2027. 7. Custom chips: +50% QoQ, 2x+ YoY, below-average margins. 8. Intel is open to fabbing CPUs on any ISA, Arm included, and offering modular x86. 9. 2027 investment year: capex up strongly, FCF probably not positive. 10. A couple of packaging customers named in the next two quarters; 14A 1.0 PDK by Q1. @intel
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Good $INTC quarter, very challenging guide. We will have to wait until the call to get the details. Has to be from one or all of these: 1. weakening PC (see $MSFT comments) 2. ⁠scarcity of substrates 3. ⁠incident at Intel’s fab in Israel
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Here’s what I said on @YahooFinance on in response asked to five questions on $INTC : 1. What stands out? A really good quarter: met on revenue, beat on almost everything else. It's the guide. Q4 is ~$1.5B light on weaker PCs and scarce substrates, and those hit everybody. Could be issues at their Israel fan. 2. Memory prices? PCs are down 15% to 25% on the shortage and memory prices that doubled or tripled. Demand isn't destroyed: nobody rides a five-year-old PC another five years. 3. AI demand for CPUs? Data center grew 78%. That's AI, and it lasts. Agentic AI needs one CPU per accelerator, sometimes two. 4. Foundry deals? Intel won't pre-announce them. @LipBuTan1 said he'd only spike capex with a real customer, and 2027 capex is going up. That tells me there are big wafer and packaging customers. 5. What stops the bleeding? Nothing fixes the PC market soon. I want Intel's plan to get enough substrates, and a straight read from Lip-Bu on foundry wafers and packaging. @intel
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Headed on @YahooFinance to discuss the $INTC quarter and forecast. I will be on in 15 minutes.
Microsoft and Oracle last reported more than $1.3 trillion of signed contracts they haven't delivered yet. Both say demand is outrunning supply. The AI question isn't demand. It's how fast they can build. Thursday I'm on @YahooFinance right after $INTC reports. It's The Week Ahead In Technology for October 26, 2026. $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN report back to back. I care less about beats than backlog becoming revenue. @Oracle hosts AI World and its investor day. It expects about 13% of its backlog to become revenue within a year; Microsoft, about 30%. $INTC: the 14A customer-commitment window is open. Customers set the clock. $KLAC, $SKHY and $NOW report. ServiceNow: agents in booked revenue, not pilots. I'm in New York for @cloudera EVOLVE26 to talk sovereign AI. So who turns backlog into revenue fastest?
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