Vibes are off: October consumer sentiment fell again, now at an index value of 46.3 vs the est of 47.6. This mirrors the increase in consumer inflation expectations (1yr up from 4.6% to 4.7%, 5-10yr up from 3.4% to 3.5%).

“It’s a game of dominoes… We’re not debating here the quality of the technology and how it’s going to change all our lives. We’re debating what it takes to create that.” 💸 @pboockvar joins @RiskReversal on: - The US deficit vs. GDP is now bigger than France’s - Hyperscalers borrowing up to $500B this year - $META’s Muse and the AI agent wars - Brent at $105 - Bank earnings next week

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with JIM BIANCO @biancoresearch Jim outlines why he is making a major shift, following his correct 6 year bearish bonds call, to be constructive long bonds. "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds." We also hit: - why rates have surged - why it hasn't hit stocks more - why the Fed still isn't credible under Warsh...yet - the risk of higher yields – inc from France, UK, Japan - but nonetheless why long bonds are now attractive - 60/40 still works - not because of a hedge, but due to yield - bullish gold & crypto...with caveats - a bear market is time not price BUY BONDS: "I'm getting off of my bearish position & going long bonds. Now you're right, I'm not pounding the table that they're a buy because they're going to rally so yields fall – I'm not talking about the economy falling or the inflation situation turning around – but now you're finally getting paid for the risk appropriately.” GROWTH: “The economy's so strong…and nominal growth has been expanding and interest rates should be expanding. So I don't see interest rates as being way out of hand or that they're problematic. I see them as following the appropriate fair value higher right now, and that's why I think that they're no longer expensive” YIELD LEVELS: “I think the way I would look at it, if the bond market is offering me mid 5% yields, I want to start getting in. If it wants to offer me high 5% yields, I want to get in more. If it gets to 6%, I want to get in even more. They were too expensive for six years. That expensiveness is gone. I wouldn't go as far as call them cheap, but at least we've got this reflected. A 4% or low four yield, which we had maybe three or four months ago, did not reflect that. It does now. So that's priced into the market and that's why I would want to start this shift towards the bond market.” BEAR MARKET IS TIME NOT PRICE: “A bear market is time, not price. And what I mean by that is everybody says stock market always comes back. It does. But is it going to be 2000 where the market peaks and it comes back in 13 years to a new all-time high? Or is it going to be 2020 during COVID where the market peaks and goes down and in five months it makes a new all-time high? The market always comes back – but what if it takes 13 years?” 60/40: “So 60 / 40 was originally set up on that stocks and bonds would move in opposite directions. That was under the guise that there was no inflation. That's broken. But 60 / 40 as a set of numbers, I still think works. Bonds now have a place in your portfolio, not because they're a hedge against stocks going up or down, but because they've got a yield.” US DEBT PROBLEM OVERSTATED: “The debt problem itself is a bit overstated. If you look at the total level of debt, and you add in not just government debt, but you add in all private sector debt and all loans, it's 364% of gross domestic product in US, three and a half times the debt of the size of the economy. 20 years ago in 2006, it was 362%. It's exactly the same number as it was 20 years ago. What's changed is the mix has been much more government debt and private sector has been deleveraging since the financial crisis by reducing the level of debt that they have. That mix is more the concern than it is the level of debt. So I don't think that we're choking on debt in the United States yet.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 Bonds fair value 5:01 Why rates have surged 8:50 Fed still not credible 15:48 Warsh Fed unpacked 23:00 Bessent’s interventions 27:27 Risk of higher yields 29:40 Risk from foreign yields 32:24 High rates for stocks 36:37 Rise of retail traders 40:45 Debt problem overstated 44:40 Gold - constructive but disappointed 45:44 Bull on crypto 50:33 60/40 - still works but for new reasons 53:01 Start to BUY bonds 54:51 Bear Mkt is Time Not Price

Americans say they feel awful about the economy. They're spending anyway. @Mastercard's chief economist Michelle Meyer joins @GuyAdami on today's episode to discuss the gap between sentiment and spending, and what it means for the holidays. 🛍️

Zeta Live is all about bringing big ideas to the stage. There’s a lot packed into these conversations, from the biggest questions shaping the future to the thinkers and leaders answering them. You won’t want to miss these. #ZetaLive26# $zeta LG 🚀🚀🚀 Register here:

What's the best regulatory solution when it comes to AI? Maybe it's something along the lines of the FDA but for frontier labs 🤖🗳️ 🎙️@RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus join Dan Nathan on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

OpenAI might turn out to be the next WeWork "It's not really grounded on actual earnings, I think that at some point people are going to stop giving them money or they're not going to make the IPO that they want. And that's another way that the party might stop, right? Everybody else is dependent on OpenAI spending all of this money." 🎙️ @GaryMarcus and @RealJimChanos on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

"If their customers don't make money using their stuff in the long run, then even if they have the best chips in the world, the customers are going to stop buying them" 🎙️ @GaryMarcus and @RealJimChanos on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

"My p(dystopia) is basically 100%... I think we are absolutely headed, as you're about to say, to surveillance state, among other things. I've been saying for a few years, the only way OpenAI could really make money is by selling their data. That's what Facebook did, and that's what they're going to do, and they're going to sell it to governments." 🎙️@GaryMarcus and @RealJimChanos on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

New pod in your feed this morning! Dan sat down with @RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus to talk all things AI, data center financing, agentic systems, animal spirits and p(doom) scenarios 🎙️🤖 YouTube: Apple: Spotify:

"The internet came and went and was highly disruptive, brought forth lots of new businesses, destroyed a lot of businesses. But in the grand scheme of the overall economy, you would have not been able to say, 'oh, the advent of the browser and the public acceptance of the internet changed the world.' It'll be very interesting to see GDP growth has been very mediocre the last 3 or 4 years." 🎙️@RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

"So much of the the financial economy right now is dependent upon this buildout... it's not just it's not just the data center, guys. It's not just the model guys, it's Caterpillar, it's GE Nova. It's all kinds of labor and construction on the ground." 🎙️ @RealJimChanos and @GaryMarcus on the latest RiskReversal Podcast