This is the nail in the coffin for the bears. As long as BTC closes above $78,900 in 14 hours, it will have closed: - 1W candle above the 50SMA - 3 daily candles also above it The 50SMA is the bear final boss. It has been in every single bottoming cycle. The price does not push up and above the 50SMA, from oversold conditions, especially on the weekly, if it is in-fact, weak. It just doesn't happen, and has never happened. We have never had a period where Bitcoin closes 3 days above it, and makes any kind of low next. It has always pushed higher. None of this means that this cannot happen for the first time, this time. We may still drop lower after this - I have been eyeing $70k - $73k for a while... But now we are up at this level, around the weekly close, it does change things. Going off all of the data we have, Bitcoin closing above $78,900 this week has historically, 100% of the time, meant that we push much higher. The main thing to take away from this is not that prices will never ever drop again. But what it does, very very likely mean, is that downside is limited. Be prepared for all outcomes, but ignoring very key data like this is, is not smart. Even if we drop below $78,900 in 14 hours, i dont think it changes much. Every single time we have come up to the 50SMA, from oversold, we have always reclaimed it and pushed higher. A rejection today only delays the inevitable in my opinion. And all the data we have proves that. You do not need to overcomplicate it.

i find the level of PTSD on the TL right now genuinely astonishing. there are pretty well known people calling for "a local top" or some sort of big pullback here i'm focused on solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx fun eco (solana:HcRLc9VDgjLeK154xDawfb1dmVJ98DoSqcwTHGqiDeJR solana:8RVBk8vxLiUHueLUW1f4izFVqN3nWippLhkohKg6EGkS etc), but let's take RH chain, which is also a smash success: the entire TVL of every single token on RH chain, including PONS (the main launchpad and RH chain 'largecap') in aggregate, ie combined, is lower than the market cap of *whatever the fuck* "book of meme" was last cycle (if you don't remember, it's some weird ruggy opportunistic crimed-up coin that popped up after wif took off) like that came and went in a blip, and nobody remembers it. again, the ENTIRE TVL of THE ENTIRE CHAIN on RH is *less* than a single (shitty/fleeting/forgettable) coin from prev cycle, and there are people out there saying "yeah guys, i think that's a wrap for a while. we really got ahead of ourselves here. we got a double ration of mealworm-pocked stale bread from our prison masters, so we must be getting executed tonight" i think the previous-era (pre stonk fun eco, rh eco) meta memecoin trenches really messed people up. i use the analogy like "people are shaking in a piss-soaked corner, refusing to leave the cell long after the gulag was liberated" i'm afraid people forgot that "good things are possible" and "it can be early", and are just traumatized. if you're not experimenting with new coins, or generally finding some way to open up your wealth chakra right now, you're potentially sidelining yourself from what could be the biggest PVE wealth creation event we've seen in 5 years. don't be scared. come, bathe with us. if not now, when?

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(FULL OF ALPHA) My appearance on stream today. We talked about the reflexive price loop Zcash [road to $1 trillion] is in and who's buying it, why Derive is the most underpriced derivatives protocol in crypto, and what the hell Pearl is 0:20 Crypto Twitter has no conviction 5:10 Zcash trillion dollar price loop 11:21 Ethereum is not money 19:19 who's actually buying Zcash? 24:53 the Derive bull case 33:27 HYPE can’t compete in options 38:28 Pearl is AI-secured Bitcoin 46:36 miners are switching to AI 49:09 a real man's coin

🇺🇸BREAKING: U.S. stock markets will begin trading 23 hours a day, 5 days a week from December 6 The planned trading week will run from Sunday evening through Friday evening, with a one-hour daily maintenance break. Nasdaq and NYSE Arca are among the venues preparing for expanded hours, while the regular 9:30 a.m. – 4 p.m. session remains unchanged. The SEC is upgrading market infrastructure for 23/5 trading, with full 24/7 trading potentially coming later. Brokers will decide which securities and overnight services customers can access, while thinner liquidity could mean wider spreads and greater volatility.

I keep seeing this sentiment of "but there's no catalyst for Bitcoin to go up", which I thought about all night and came to the conclusion: that's total bullshit. here's a list 17 of reasons it will go up. 1. AI made a bunch of people disgustingly rich AI companies have minted huge paper wealth. When those people want something more exciting than just holding tech stocks, they look at crypto. 2. SpaceX going public is the largest wealth creation event in American history biggest IPO ever. employees and investors suddenly have liquid stock. some of that money, and even tokenized SpaceX stock itself, and more of it will unlock over time. SpaceX listed at ~$1.77 trillion. Axios noted that was roughly equal to the 29 largest U.S. IPOs since 2000 combined 3. IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN another giant AI company looking to list around october. same idea: new rich people + a hot AI story that crypto can ride. 4. IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN (AGAIN) we don't know when OpenAI's IPO will be but it's likely another $1T+ wealth creation event and will probably happen in 2027. 5. for the first time you can pair real stocks with meme coins on Robinhood’s chain, tokens that track Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, SpaceX can sit in the same pool as joke coins. stocks become the “cash” you trade memes against. this is creating a massive swell of tokenized stocks owned on-chain which has multiple downstream effects. 6. buying crypto is now as easy as buying a stock one app, one swipe, with apple cash. if you're new here, I can understand how that doesn't feel that huge, but my god it is everything. you don’t need to learn wallets, bridge funds, or pick a chain first. that lowering of the barrier to entry makes the TAM of crypto literally 100x larger. 7. privacy is a hot story again Zcash now has a spot ETF. People who want “Bitcoin, but you can hide the transaction if you want” finally have a normal, regulated way to buy it. new story usually means new money. Billionaires feel more threatened than they have in decades (see #8#) 8. sovereignty is a hot story again California’s Prop 40 would slap a one-time 5% tax on the whole fortune of residents worth $1B+, even if they leave the state later. It’s on the November ballot, not law yet, but the message is: governments can try to reach paper wealth. that makes self-custody and assets that are hard to freeze more interesting. 9. the stigma around gambling is basically gone Prediction markets, DraftKings, online casinos, memecoins, it’s all treated like entertainment now. when “degeneracy” doesn’t feel dirty, more people are willing to speculate, including in crypto. this is happening at the same time as people getting brutalized in the economy. everyone is loking for an edge. Crypto is where they'll find it. 10. Retirement accounts might get crypto if 401(k)s and advisors get a clearer green light, the slow, boring money that never touched Bitcoin can start dripping in. 11. more than just Bitcoin ETFs now there are funds for ETH, SOL, even Zcash. Advisors who used to only be allowed to buy BTC can put client money into more coins without leaving the brokerage account. 12. banks and Visa/Stripe are building on stablecoins (huge) the GENIUS Act already made dollar-coins a real U.S. product. big banks and payment companies want in. more dollars living on-chain usually lifts the whole crypto market, not just the stablecoin issuers. 13. stablecoins and tokenized stuff are truly being used dollars-on-chain and tokenized T-bills/stocks mean blockchains are becoming pipes for real money, not only casinos. 14. yesterday the SEC said on-chain stocks can trade (Sept 17) for five years, special venues can run automated pools of tokenized U.S. stocks without being treated like a full stock exchange. that’s official a barrier that has kept many more skeptical/fearful participants sidelined from building new technology in our space. 15. CFTC said wallet builders aren’t automatically brokers (Sept 17) if you just write software and don’t hold people’s money or tell them what to buy, you’re not on the hook for whatever users do with it. 16. FOMO/easy apps + giant IPOs + stock-meme combos make people afraid of missing out. the entire bull market will be significantly more visible than it's ever been. Crypto influencers are not just on twitter now. @MINHxDYNASTY, @rasmr_eth, @notthreadguy, @orangie and others will continue to go viral with insane P&Ls to a much broader audience than any cycle before this. that usually shows up late in a rally and can push prices faster 17. People don’t trust the dollar prices keep going up and the government keeps printing/borrowing a lot. bitcoin is the original inflation hedge, and then institutions have torched that, but I believe we will see a flip back to it being an inflation hedge as the dollar continues to weaken. there's always reasons to be bearish. something gets bombed, another war, another tariff... but for the first time in several years we have seen many bearish events that have had near-zero effect on bitcoin's price. FOMC, Clarity fails, oil skyrockets bitcoin no longer cares. and when it doesn't care enough to go down, there's only one direction for it to go in. 📈

stonk fun burned .25% of its supply in a single day. while 97% of people that will trade onchain are still in bed, and BTC is trading fifty thousand dollars below its previous ATH this is in contrast to other protocols that 1) don't have a token 2) are dumping supply on your heads nonstop, potentially to the tunes of billions of dollars in some cases, to pay off VCs and early investors to pay them back for their flatiron office's air hockey table $stonk is a 10b protocol, solana:8RVBk8vxLiUHueLUW1f4izFVqN3nWippLhkohKg6EGkS earns stonk, and we're so early to this new path for memecoins, that exchanges and tax software is still barely figuring out platform issues so much higher.

The dead cat continues to bounce. What is Bitcoin, 17 years later? It’s not great for transactions or smart contracts; the user experience is still intimidating for most, and it’s no longer capturing the public’s imagination. If it comes up at the dinner party, it's followed by a hearty “remember that!” It’s a boring store of value, trusted as that—which is its biggest value. It's boring. Folks expect bitcoin to be stable and that it’s no longer a way to get rich quick. Institutions embracing and accumulating it took $btc from punk rock to Muzak. Advocates went from pirates to suits in orange ties, awkwardly sharing cringe memes — just like the cool kids do! If Bitcoin were going to reach mass adoption and an important use case, it does better than anyone else, it would have by now. Bitcoin feels like the CD in the age of Spotify, the DVD in the age of Netflix — a bridge technology that folks who invested in “their collection” keep saying is the better experience. Perhaps bitcoin is vinyl, cool memories and fun to drag out and put on display, but a technology that served us to get to where we are now.

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