Ph.D, semiconductor materials & process
AI infra · data center · chips
반도체·공급망 분석 × 밸류에이션
semiconsight@gmail.com
NVDA · AVGO · DRAM
서로 도우며 같이 잘 x 생활 해보자구요^^
𝗗𝗜𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗕𝗔𝗖𝗞 𝗘𝗡𝗘𝗥𝗚𝗬 ($𝗙𝗔𝗡𝗚)
𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗖𝗛 | 𝗢𝗖𝗧𝗢𝗕𝗘𝗥 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗠𝗬 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗
The oIl is a bit out of my normal posts but with the tech struggling I have began looking for ways to diversify as I am way to concentrated in the Data Center with power leasing model of companies.
Of course I don't leave power completely they have a large up to 1.5GW power project under way with their partner IPP.
Diamondback is a large, scale Permian oil producer with strong recent cash generation and a higher 2026 production.
The stock still depends largely on oil prices. The higher the price the higher the stock generally speaking.
One of the more exciting to me projects is the Bryant Ranch power project could create another outlet for its gas. The poject is estimated to be 1GW to 1.5GW's its expect to use around 15% of Diamondbacks Natural gas production.
They will be working with a local power provider IPP. Oh did I mention we need more power in the USA. thats going to be a solid move going forward and i think other producers of natural gas will at least consider it.
𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗬 𝗗𝗢 — 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗜𝗧’𝗦 𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚
Diamondback produces oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin. In Q2, it averaged 525,000 barrels of oil per day and 1.018 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. It generated $3.6 billion in net cash from operating activities and $2.3 billion in free cash flow, and raised its 2026 production outlook.
That scale and cash generation give it room to fund investment and pay down debt.
𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗦𝗘𝗧𝗨𝗣
FANG closed Friday at $203.95, up 4.27% on the day. From its October 7 close of $184.38, it gained about 10.6% through October 16.
Other large oil producers also rose Friday, while the broader market fell. The move looks tied to strength in energy and crude, with FANG outperforming some peers.
𝗖𝗔𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗬𝗦𝗧𝗦
Q3 results are scheduled for November 2 after the close, with the call November 3.
Investors will need to be watching for 2027 plans and performance.
An October 8 filing already disclosed Q3 realized prices: $87.30 per barrel for unhedged oil and $85.89 hedged. It also reported $182 million in commodity-derivative losses, including $97 million in cash settlements.
That’s useful context when assessing how much elevated spot oil may flow through to reported results.
Bryant Ranch is a projected for 2027. On the Q2 call, management described a bridge to grid power project on roughly 30,000 acres, targeting first gas in the second half of 2027 and grid connected power as soon as 2028.
Management said it would provide a fuller update after definitive hyperscaler documentation.
𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗞𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗜’𝗠 𝗪𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗚
Net debt was $12.3 billion at June 30, and production economics remain exposed to commodity prices.
SGF FANG Holdings sold 9.08 million shares in September and retained about 65 million. That sale is a real supply overhang, though it doesn’t signal whether more sales are planned.
For earnings, I’m watching whether Q3 cash generation supports debt reduction and buybacks, what management says about 2027, and whether Bryant Ranch advances to a documented customer agreement.
The $16 billion buyback authorization is the capability to buy them back but not a commitment.
Michael Burry's logic of depreciation has been continuously proven to be wrong.
And here is one interesting perspective on AI infrastructure names, $IREN & $NBIS
Neocloud companies are now in a position to pass costs on to customers, and if the initial investment is recovered in about three years, profits per additional MW are likely to surge afterward.
this will instantly make their financials look explosive.
In this context, not only is $NBIS financially stable, but $IREN also has a visible contract size of $16 billion and a current market capitalization of $15 billion. This is a part to think once again.
this account touches on these structural core issues. might be useful to follow 🫡