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John Spencer
@SpencerGuard
War Scholar | Chair of War Studies Madison Policy Forum | Executive Director @urbanwarfareins | UWP podcast | Thoughts/Posts my own RT/Quote/Like ≠ Official Gov
1.5K Following    358.4K Followers
I am happy to join 6,000 prominent scholars, legal experts to sign a letter rejecting Gaza genocide charge. include historian Niall Ferguson, Israeli historian Benny Morris, Holocaust historian and former US Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism Deborah Lipstadt, Tel Aviv University professor emerita and former Yad Vashem chief historian Dina Porat, historian and author Simon Sebag Montefiore, UCLA professor Judea Pearl, and Brandeis University professor emeritus Jonathan Sarna.
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"What We Can Learn From John Spencer Almost Dying 20 Times.," I joined my friends @jockowillink and @echocharles for another great conversation about my latest book as well as my recent research in combat zones around the world. Urban warfare expert and retired Army officer John Spencer returns to share stories from 20 Times I Almost Died, from Ranger School and Iraq to Ukraine, Azerbaijan, India, Gaza, and some incredibly close calls. Along the way, John and Jocko break down leadership, intuition, modern warfare, resilience, and the importance of developing a personal code to live by.
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I am not sure who on Tucker's staff wrote this for him but that is a lot of lies in one statement. Purposeful I am sure. Any reader can hit the @grok button and ask true? See my article on the 2,000 pound bomb fallacies, why they are used in war to include by the U.S. today. A Mark 84 does not destroy everything within half a mile. Yes, fragments can travel farther than the area where the point of impact occurs, but terrain, surrounding structures, and the circumstances of the explosion affect the extent of the blast. It also does not send out a sun-temperature wave that melts surrounding rock and vaporizes people at 100 feet. It is not a nuclear weapon. Yes, it can collapse apartment buildings and leave large craters, but a thirty-five-foot crater is not a standard result. Crater size depends on the factors of the structure/ground conditions of where the bomb detonates. Dresden is not recognized as a war crime under the standards of World War II. Interesting choice of example tho as the city had about 560,000 residents in early 1945. A 250,000 civilians killed figure was devised by Joseph Goebbels’ ministry and pushed for decades, later recycled by David Irving. More than 50 years later, a historical commission put the death toll at 25,000. The March 1945 Berlin raid was not “the largest American air raid of WWII.” Some people call it the largest U.S. raid on Berlin. A bigger American raid was Christmas Eve 1944, Eighth Air Force operation against targets in western Germany. Comparing that one day Berlin drop to a planned Israeli stockpile of 40,000 two-thousand-pound bombs is lazy, not a like for like measure of an attack. Operation Meetinghouse over Tokyo did kill 80,000–100,000 people and is often called the most destructive single air raid in history, but the load was 1,665 tons of incendiaries, not “1,600 tons of bombs.” Different weapons, different effect. The 7.5% line only works if you treat an arms-sale inventory as if it were already dropped in one raid. By no definition (words have meaning) has Israel done a genocide in Gaza. Not by the definition's intent or actions requirements. No actual evidence support the intent or actions allegation. The government of Israel was in a war against the terror army of Hamas in Gaza after they invaded Israel on October 7th and withdrew into Gaza with 250 hostages; they were also at war with the terror army (more equipped than many nations) Hezbollah in Lebanon after they attack on October 8th. Israel is not working to exterminate an unarmed civilian population in Gaza or Lebenon. No evidence shows they have targeted civilians. All of the Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iran fronts have contained buried and fortified targets that can justify the use of modern 2,000-pound bombs.
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I am happy to join more than 5,000 leaders across entertainment, academia, and public life to reject "Genocide" accusation against Israel. with @BorisJohnson @deborahlipstadt @nfergus @sapinker @simonmontefiore @BoyGeorge @JGreenblattADL @AJCCEO @johnondrasik and many others.
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Thank you @BillAckman I would add several concerns. - Any uprising would need resilient communications writ large: satellite internet, burner phones, radios, and other systems that can survive regime blackouts. - The regime’s ability to communicate and coordinate its response could also be targeted. - An information and influence campaign would need to focus on Iran’s regular armed forces, especially the Army and Air Force, and press them to side with the population or remain in their barracks instead of defending the IRGC and Basij. - Protest movements need leadership, clear instructions (both active and protective guidance), and organization, both during an uprising and for the day after. - On top of arms, protective gear ballistic vests/helmets some of which can be gathered from the environment if there is leadership and planning on the ground. - The historical record of popular revolts producing stable post-regime order is poor. Removing a regime and replacing it with something better are two different problems. - Direct outside assistance could also cause this desperate regime to strike neighboring countries, civilian infrastructure. Any action would therefore have to account for/target Iran’s remaining missile, drone, and other military capabilities. - Popular revolt is messy business. A lot can go wrong. Communications, leadership, the day after, regional escalation, and whether regular military units choose the Iranian people over the regime’s hardline core are not secondary concerns. They are the central political and strategic questions.
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Yes, both my beautiful fiancée, @AlyssaRosenheck, and I had books come out this week, on the same day, actually. Mine is 20 Times I Almost Died. Hers is White, Blonde, Jew, and it is a must-read. I am incredibly proud of her. I know the fight it took to secure another book deal after her first was canceled, then to write, publish, and even launch this book. Her bookstore launch was canceled after a hate campaign. But she cannot be canceled and will not be canceled. I am deeply grateful for everyone who has supported us and stood against the hate. Go buy both books and leave us Amazon reviews!
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🧵Amnesty's Gaza "genocide" report collapses. @amnesty relies on 15 airstrike cases as evidence Israel targeted ONLY civilians, claiming each had no "military objective." But FIVE are now confirmed to have targeted Hamas or PIJ commanders. The "evidence" is fake. Details: 1/
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And @Deepstate_UA finally reveals the scale of recent Ukrainan advances in the Zaporizhia sector. The military reported 26 villages and towns retaken from Russia.
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"Turkey’s rise increases risk of confrontation with Israel, former national security chief warns," @MisgavINSen @MisgavINS
“Expanded trench systems have grown intointerconnected tunnel networks, underground command posts, protected logistics corridors, buried medical facilities, drone production sites, and infiltration routes beneath contested terrain across the front lines.”
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"while the world watched the skies over Ukraine, another transformation in warfare was taking place beneath the ground. Ukraine and Russia started investing heavily in underground warfare." my @WarInstitute latest with COL @SapperGeologist
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‼️"NATO militaries are not prepared for this future." Phenomenal article about underground warfare in Ukraine and the lessons to be learned by the West! So much focus has been on drone warfare & AI, so this is quite informative & worth the read 👇 thanks @SpencerGuard 👏
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"Digging Below The Death Zone: The Underground War in Ukraine," my latest with @SapperGeologist discussing how the evolution of underground environments have exploded/advanced as the surface has become so lethal. A trend that many are still not ready for.
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"Pentagon gives industry 21 days to submit plans for ‘significantly faster’ weapons production,"
🔥 Iran isn’t just feeling the heat, it’s running out of cash. When a regime can’t pay its soldiers, bankroll its security forces, or keep the system running, the pressure goes from economic to existential. @VictoriaCoates is former deputy national security advisor to President Trump and Vice President of the Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation.
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Despite all the rhetoric coming out of Tehran, the reality is clear: the U.S. blockade of Iran is effective. Iran’s claims that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz are false. It has neither closed the strait nor effectively stopped maritime traffic.
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Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day. When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.  On Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average.
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WHY EXACTLY ARE WE ALLOWING RUSSIA TO SET UP TWO BASES IN SYRIA? Don’t we have leverage ? Did they kill 10’s of thousands of Syrians ? Aren’t they housing Syrian mass murderer Assad?
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Yes it does
Brahmos gives us "credible deterrance" amid South China Sea situation says Philippines Amb Ignacio
@traysartech @SpencerGuard Urban drilling / tunnelling technology. Thanks to @ianvisits for the original post 👍🏻
#TheJohnSpencerInterview# At 8:00 PM. Unmissable interview with War Scholar John Spencer on his new book, the research he is doing for his book on Operation Sindoor and the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey deal's implications. @SpencerGuard @malhotravineet7
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