UK Budget day: Why the speech matters less than the backdrop
Today’s Budget is being treated as the main event. I think the backdrop matters far more than anything said in the Commons later today.
The Budget has been briefed almost line by line. The fiscal rules are expected to be met, headroom is expected to land somewhere between £10bn and £15bn (down from £23.6bn in March), and the harder decisions on welfare and departmental spending have been pushed towards next year’s spending review.
That is tinkering around fiscal rules of the government’s own making, tested in 2029-30, while the trajectory stays untouched. That trajectory has held under successive governments: a debt stock that has tripled since it first passed £1 trillion in 2010, and borrowing stuck at 4% to 5% of GDP every year since the pandemic.
1. The debt
The ONS reported last week that public sector net debt has passed £3 trillion for the first time. It stands at £3,005bn, or 94.0% of GDP.
September borrowing was £24.5bn. That is the second-highest September on record behind 2020, and £1.8bn higher than a year earlier. Borrowing for the first half of the financial year is £6bn above the OBR’s forecast, so the numbers are being missed before the new forecast is even published.
Debt interest was £10.9bn in September alone. That is the highest for any September since records began in 1997, before adjusting for inflation. It is also only the eighth month on record above £10bn. It was £2.0bn above the OBR’s forecast. £4.0bn of it was an accounting charge for inflation on index-linked gilts, which shows how exposed the interest bill is to rising prices.
2. The cost of carrying it
The UK now spends more than £115bn a year servicing its debt, roughly double the defence budget.
The Chancellor made the point himself in September. £1 in every £10 the government spends now goes on debt interest. If it were a department, he said, it would be the second biggest in Whitehall after Health, and he called spending on it “nothing progressive”.
That is the context for the defence announcement. It is expected to include around £4.7bn to fill a gap in the Defence Investment Plan, plus billions routed through the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank, to be invested in defence and technology companies. None of it is being paid for by cutting spending, because the harder decisions on both have been deferred. It is paid for with long-term borrowing, due to begin in 2028-29, and the timetable to 3% of GDP has moved to next year’s spending review.
The government’s case is that this is investment, and that the returns will outrun the cost of the borrowing. That is a reasonable argument and it may prove right. But the cost is known and the return is an estimate. The government pays around 5% to 6% to borrow today. The Treasury has also said it is lowering the discount rate in its Green Book, the rulebook for appraising projects, from 3.5% to 3%. That rate sets how much future benefits are worth against today’s costs, so a lower rate makes it easier for projects to pass.
Because the money sits in public financial institutions as an asset, it is also not expected to count against the government’s debt rule. Borrowing can rise and the rule can still be met. In my view that is the weakness of rules of the government’s own making.
3. What the market is saying
The 30-year gilt yield went through 6% on 1 October for the first time since 1998. It peaked at 6.036% on 7 October, and the UK became the first G7 economy to pay 6% on long-term borrowing since the euro crisis in 2012.
The 10-year is around 5.35%. Yesterday the DMO sold £4.5bn of five-year gilts at 5.04%, the highest yield since 2008.
Some of this is global, but the global picture has eased. The US 30-year yield hit 5.73% on 7 October, its highest since 2002, and is now around 5.30%. The US 10-year has fallen from 5.36% to about 5.00%. UK yields have come off too: the 30-year is around 5.76%, down from 6.04%, and the 10-year is around 5.35%, down from a high of 5.53%.
Part of the UK’s breathing room is that the Bank of England stopped selling long-dated gilts on 17 September. The rest, in my view, is that bond investors are looking at France. Its 10-year yield went above 5% for the first time since 2002 amid riots and doubts over its budget, and the gap over German Bunds hit its widest since 2011.
However, the UK’s 10-year still yields more than France’s, UK yields remain the highest in the G7, and investors still point to the UK’s exposure to inflation shocks and years of political uncertainty as the reason they charge a premium.
4. What traders are watching
The DMO’s revised remit, published alongside the Budget, is the number the market cares about most. It sets how many gilts the government plans to sell this year. The April plan was £246.2bn. Consensus is for a rise of about £3.4bn, with some forecasts as high as £10bn.
The other thing to watch is the type of gilt. The expectation is fewer long-dated gilts and more short-term borrowing, because the market is demanding so much to hold the long end. The long-dated share is forecast to fall to its lowest in over 35 years. That's really just a way to change how the government borrows, not how much. It lowers the interest cost today and increases the exposure to rate rises later, while the borrowing itself stays where it is.
5. The point
Whichever way the speech lands, the issue is the same. Debt is above £3 trillion, interest costs are about double the defence budget, borrowing is running ahead of forecast, and the main response to every constraint is to defer the decision. The fiscal rules are of the government’s own making and are measured in 2029-30, so they can be met on paper while debt in pounds and the interest bill both keep rising.
A Budget moves the numbers by a few billion either way. It does not change the arithmetic. Around £141bn of this year’s gilt sales simply replaces maturing debt, now refinanced at yields of 5% to 6%. Headroom of £10bn to £15bn does not go far against that: ING estimates a one percentage point rise in yields across the curve adds £8.4bn to the annual interest bill by 2029-30.
This is the environment in which I find the case for Bitcoin easiest to make. The government’s fiscal rules are written by the government, measured years in the future and can be redrawn at any Budget. Bitcoin’s rules are written in code and enforced by thousands of independent nodes. Supply is fixed at 21 million and issuance follows a schedule set in advance. No Chancellor, remit or review can change that by announcement.
I believe that makes it a hedge against exactly this kind of fiscal drift.
This is my personal view and not financial advice.
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