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Andrew Webley
@asjwebley
CEO, The Smarter Web Company (@smarterwebuk) | Bitcoin Investor | Previously Head of Online, Hargreaves Lansdown | Posting In A Personal Capacity
12 Following    10.6K Followers
"I want to see a lot more (Digital Credit) issuers, because I think it's very good for us, and it's very good for the industry." Smarter Web CEO, @asjwebley, speaking recently with @TimKotzman on the Digital Credit ecosystem. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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Bitcoin held up well in October, and I remain positive on where it goes from here. October gave Bitcoin multiple different kinds of shocks. The US 10-year yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002. Brent crude had a fourth straight monthly gain, touching a high above $119 as the Iran conflict and attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz kept supply at risk. CoreWeave and the neoclouds then came under credit stress, with CoreWeave’s bonds yielding 15-16% and its shares down more than 30%. Finally, Binance lost about $6.3bn in the largest hack in crypto history. Until the Binance hack, Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly $80,000 to $87,000, while the Nasdaq fell 5.3% on the month. The hack was a failure at one exchange, not at the Bitcoin network, and Binance has pledged to cover all losses. Although Bitcoin closed October down 7.3%, the low of the month tested the 50-week moving average at around $75,700, a key bull market support. Bitcoin held it and finished above it for the second month running. Despite the biggest crypto exchange hack in history, Bitcoin was hit less than the rest of the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, the S&P 500 1.8% and gold about 3%, and Bitcoin fell by less than all three. Rising yields, oil above $110, stretched credit and a record hack in a single month is a hostile backdrop. Bitcoin continues to show strong relative strength against each negative catalyst that hits it, and that is why my outlook stays positive. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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RNS Announcement: Bitcoin Custody Arrangements We have taken a deliberate and considered approach to how we safeguard our Bitcoin holdings, recognising that the strength of our custody arrangements is just as important as the scale of our treasury. By establishing relationships with multiple leading institutional custodians, we have built a diversified custody framework designed to provide strong asset protection, operational resilience and flexibility as our Bitcoin treasury continues to develop. We believe this approach provides a strong foundation for the long-term execution of our Bitcoin treasury strategy and reflects our commitment to building a credible and enduring institutional Bitcoin treasury company. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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RNS Announcement: Bitcoin Custody Arrangements Please read the RNS on our website (link in comments). LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
Bitcoin Treasuries Weekly Update #11# Strategy bought no ₿itcoin and sold no MSTR between 19 and 25 October, leaving the stack at 848,517. Instead it repurchased another 2,068,459 $STRC shares for $204.9 million, taking the buyback to $2.04 billion. $STRC reached $99.99 on Thursday, a cent off par. Strive made its biggest buy. It disclosed 6,182 ₿itcoin bought between 17 and 23 October for $511.4 million at $82,732, taking holdings from 36,818 to 43,000, just 1,000 behind Metaplanet. It then set up a $1 billion ATM for $SATS. Smarter Web's $MORE went ex-dividend on Thursday for its second weekly payment, £0.2301 per share, due on 16 November. There were no ATM sales this week, and holdings remain 2,850 ₿itcoin. Metaplanet's holdings are unchanged at 44,000, and its US vehicle Super League added 4 ₿itcoin ahead of the deal closing. Capital B still holds 3,538. Spot opened the week near $80,000 and held between about $79,300 and $81,900 through Wednesday's Fed hold. Late on Thursday, Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion hack, the largest crypto theft on record. About $3 billion has been frozen, and Binance will cover all losses. ₿itcoin fell as low as $76,141 on Friday and was near $76,700 at the US close, down about 4% on the week. US spot ETFs took in $440.8 million from Monday to Thursday, but Friday's $643.2 million outflow wiped that out, leaving the week $202.4 million negative. $IBIT still finished the week $176.9 million positive. $ASST $MSTR $SWC $MTPLF $ALCPB
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Bitcoin Treasuries Weekly Update #10# Strategy added 267 ₿itcoin between 12 and 18 October for $22.1 million at $82,900, lifting the stack to 848,517. It spent far more defending its credit: 1,938,780 $STRC shares were repurchased for $193.1 million, and the board raised the digital credit repurchase programme from $2.0 billion to $3.0 billion. $STRC closed Friday at $99.36. Strive kept stacking. A further 1,223 ₿itcoin bought between 14 and 16 October at about $81,734 takes holdings to 36,818, after 4,045 for the week as a whole. Every remaining traditional warrant has now been exercised. $SATS, its new 15% preferred, began trading on Nasdaq on Tuesday after the $630 million IPO. Next week $SATA pays its 100th consecutive dividend. Smarter Web had a busy week. $MORE went ex-dividend on Thursday for its first weekly payment, £0.2301 per share, due on 9 November. Our ATM update showed £592,679 raised since 14 October: 1,076,000 ordinary shares at an average of £0.55, and our first 25 MORE shares sold at £100. On Friday we bought 20 ₿itcoin for £1.23 million at £61,733, taking holdings to 2,850, with a quarter-to-date BTC Yield of 2.41%. Metaplanet's US vehicle cleared a key hurdle when Super League shareholders approved the deal, which will become Superplanet, its US-listed treasury platform. Holdings are unchanged at 44,000. Capital B announced no new purchase and still holds 3,538 ₿itcoin. US spot ETFs finished the week with net flows of about +$301.2 million. Monday to Thursday was +$439.1 million, even after Thursday's $635.6 million outflow, the largest since June. $ASST $MSTR $SWC $MTPLF $ALCPB
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There’s a lot of debate in the Bitcoin treasury space right now. Let me share how I think about it, as an investor not a CEO, in simple terms. A Bitcoin treasury company is, fundamentally, a balance sheet. That balance sheet can be managed through different capital structures: ordinary equity, preferred shares, traditional debt, convertibles, and so on. Each comes with trade-offs. Cost of capital, risk, investor appetite and the degree of leverage (or amplification) are all important considerations. There is no single structure that is right for every company, at every point in time. There are always trade-offs. But ultimately, a company belongs to its shareholders. Capital allocation decisions should be made with one objective in mind: maximising long-term shareholder value. For a Bitcoin treasury company, I think it is important to understand: 1) Bitcoin per share: how much Bitcoin does each share represent? 2) Future growth potential / sustainability: how much can that Bitcoin per share grow over time? 3) Risk: what risks are being taken to achieve that growth, particularly over the investment time horizon that matters to you? Different companies will pursue different strategies, and that's absolutely fine. What matters is whether those strategies create value for shareholders over time. And obviously beat Bitcoin performance as that is the benchmark. As an investor, I'll continue to assess both the short-term and long-term implications of management decisions, alongside each company's current valuation, growth potential and risk profile. And I'll allocate my capital accordingly. Ultimately, it's not about which capital structure is best in isolation. It's about which decisions create the most long-term value per share balanced against the risks that you are comfortable with.
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Today is Bitcoin whitepaper day. On 31 October 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto shared a nine-page paper on a cryptography mailing list, with little fanfare. Eighteen years on, the supply cap is still 21 million. More than 20 million Bitcoin have already been mined. As the world moves towards AI and the abundance it will bring, Bitcoin will offer something different: a scarcity set by code that anyone can verify for themselves. Much about the future is uncertain, but not this: a block will be mined roughly every ten minutes, as it has been since January 2009. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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You are welcome. Yes - we actually use this within our operating businesses - a recent initiative with Smarter Web Operations and for some time with Squarebird Agency. Both of which will be increased, over time, as it is very easy to monitor the spend against revenue. However on the equities (SWC & MORE) it is far more complex under the regulatory regime. We have had lots of discussions around this area with our advisers and being blunt at times it is quite frustrating. Our focus on the equities is a few things which I can not share at present - as much as I would like to - but I am "fairly optimistic" on that front.
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You are welcome. Yes - we actually use this within our operating businesses - a recent initiative with Smarter Web Operations and for some time with Squarebird Agency. Both of which will be increased, over time, as it is very easy to monitor the spend against revenue. However on the equities (SWC & MORE) it is far more complex under the regulatory regime. We have had lots of discussions around this area with our advisers and being blunt at times it is quite frustrating. Our focus on the equities is a few things which I can not share at present - as much as I would like to - but I am "fairly optimistic" on that front.
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Looking back over the last few months, it has been a significant period for Smarter Web. We have continued developing the business, attracted considerable interest and, importantly, launched the first Bitcoin treasury Preferred Share on a main market outside the United States. I am incredibly proud of that achievement and of everyone who helped make it possible. However, I am also very conscious that this has been a difficult period for our shareholders. After a strong rise, SWC, our Ordinary Share, has fallen from around 80p to approximately 40p over the past month. Whilst MORE, our new Preferred Share, closed this week at approximately £80, having been issued at £90 only a few weeks ago. I understand the frustration and disappointment that comes with those movements, particularly for shareholders who have invested more recently. It is not something I overlook or take lightly. Despite these challenges, my confidence in the direction we are taking remains unchanged. I believe we have established the foundations of a capital structure that can support our long-term ambitions, and my focus remains firmly on building Smarter Web into the business I believe it can become. As a significant shareholder myself, my interests are closely aligned with those of our investors. I remain personally very optimistic about the opportunity ahead, although I fully recognise my own bias. But optimism alone is not enough, and neither are ambition or the milestones we have achieved so far. Ultimately, we need to demonstrate through consistent execution, disciplined capital allocation and continued progress that our strategy can deliver long-term value for shareholders. There is still a great deal of work ahead of us, and I do not underestimate the challenges. Markets will not always move in our favour, and we cannot control the price of Bitcoin or our shares. What we can control is how we manage the business, the decisions we make and the discipline with which we pursue our strategy. This week's update is deliberately shorter and different in structure to my usual updates. Given what has been a challenging few weeks for our shareholders and a particularly difficult end to the week for the Bitcoin industry, I felt that was appropriate. My job is to keep advancing Smarter Web. That is what I have worked tirelessly to do since we became a public company, and it is what I will continue to do. We have achieved a great deal in a relatively short period, but there is much more to accomplish. Thank you, as always, to everyone who continues to support Smarter Web and believes in what we are trying to build. Your support is never taken for granted. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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$MORE Day 13: traded 3,582 shares worth £298,000 today, equal to 3.2% of shares issued. Daily average this week: 1,573 shares / £136,000. Closing mid price was £81.00. It was a tough day for price, but it's good to see volume picking up. Onwards. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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$MORE Day 12: traded 509 shares worth £45,000 today, equal to 0.5% of shares issued. 10-day average volume: 1,935 shares a day. 25,191 shares traded since launch, 22.7% of shares issued. Closing mid price was £88.50 LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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EARLY BIRD TICKETS - FINAL CHANCE Early bird pricing for the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference UK 2027 ends tomorrow, Saturday 31 October. If you want to hear how companies are putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and meet the investors, executives and thought leaders doing it, now is the time to lock in your place at the lowest price. Once tomorrow's gone, so is the early bird rate. Link in comments. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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The news overnight about the Binance hack is concerning for everyone, but we'd like to confirm Smarter Web has not been impacted. We have relationships with five institutional-grade custodians: Fidelity, Coinbase, Kraken, Anchorage and Xapo, and allocate our Bitcoin between them as our needs require. Smarter Web keeps these arrangements under regular review. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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Smarter Web Livestream: Thursday, 5 November, 14:00 GMT / 09:00 ET. @millercole is joined by Smarter Web CEO, @asjwebley. The conversation will cover the latest developments at Smarter Web, recent Bitcoin accumulation, updates on MORE preferred shares, capital structure, and the broader Bitcoin treasury and Digital Credit landscape. Watch live here on X or YouTube. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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$MORE Day 12: traded 509 shares worth £45,000 today, equal to 0.5% of shares issued. 10-day average volume: 1,935 shares a day. 25,191 shares traded since launch, 22.7% of shares issued. Closing mid price was £88.50 LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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$MORE Day 11: traded 1,013 shares worth £90,000 today, equal to 0.9% of shares issued. 10-day average volume: 2,088 shares a day. 24,682 shares traded since launch, 22.2% of shares issued. Closing mid price was £89.00. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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Every Thursday morning, Smarter Web announces the proceeds raised through the Company's at-the-market facilities: - Ordinary Shares ATM Facility - Preferred Shares ATM Facility Today, no RNS was issued, meaning there were no sales under either facility during the reporting period. The ATM facilities provide Smarter Web with flexibility to raise capital. Not just issue shares simply because the facilities are available. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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Volatility on the way down isn’t fun and it isn’t predictable (not to me at least). But perspective remains key. Whilst share price is down and mNAV has contracted sharply in recent weeks they are equally still significantly up year to date. At today’s snapshot the mNAV sits at 1.09, up from 0.7 at the start of the year. Share price is 44p, up 27% from 32p at the start of the year. $SWC has uplisted to the main market LSE stock exchange and #MORE# has been launched. With Bitcoin currently down 7.3% year to date most would consider today’s snapshot and year to date performance extremely encouraging. It’s for every individual to reach their own conclusion. Will #MORE# continue to grow and build towards par in the coming weeks and months? Will $SWC increase further access to the US capital markets to access deeper liquidity? Will @asjwebley continue to forge ahead and prove doubters wrong as he had demonstrated time and time again? Will $SWC remain one of, if not the fastest horse as this next bull run really gets going? The share price is not the company. For anyone with a long time horizon even the recent local high share price can be considered good value. If so, current share price provides even better value. I’m here for the entirety of the 10 year plan. Onwards! 🚀
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PUMP MY BAG! Now it's even easier to see WHO is pumping your Bitcoin Treasury common stock bags the most. Go to my site - tap "TOOLS" then "PUMP MY BAG" and see for yourself. @saylor @CJ_Bitcoin @rohanhirani @ColeMacro @PunterJeff @Werkman @AdamBLiv @asjwebley @millercole
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$MORE Day 11: traded 1,013 shares worth £90,000 today, equal to 0.9% of shares issued. 10-day average volume: 2,088 shares a day. 24,682 shares traded since launch, 22.2% of shares issued. Closing mid price was £89.00. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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UK government debt is over £3 trillion. The 30-year gilt yield hit a 28-year high this month. Today, borrowing was revised up in each of the next five years. Nothing stops this train. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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UK Budget day: Why the speech matters less than the backdrop Today’s Budget is being treated as the main event. I think the backdrop matters far more than anything said in the Commons later today. The Budget has been briefed almost line by line. The fiscal rules are expected to be met, headroom is expected to land somewhere between £10bn and £15bn (down from £23.6bn in March), and the harder decisions on welfare and departmental spending have been pushed towards next year’s spending review. That is tinkering around fiscal rules of the government’s own making, tested in 2029-30, while the trajectory stays untouched. That trajectory has held under successive governments: a debt stock that has tripled since it first passed £1 trillion in 2010, and borrowing stuck at 4% to 5% of GDP every year since the pandemic. 1. The debt The ONS reported last week that public sector net debt has passed £3 trillion for the first time. It stands at £3,005bn, or 94.0% of GDP. September borrowing was £24.5bn. That is the second-highest September on record behind 2020, and £1.8bn higher than a year earlier. Borrowing for the first half of the financial year is £6bn above the OBR’s forecast, so the numbers are being missed before the new forecast is even published. Debt interest was £10.9bn in September alone. That is the highest for any September since records began in 1997, before adjusting for inflation. It is also only the eighth month on record above £10bn. It was £2.0bn above the OBR’s forecast. £4.0bn of it was an accounting charge for inflation on index-linked gilts, which shows how exposed the interest bill is to rising prices. 2. The cost of carrying it The UK now spends more than £115bn a year servicing its debt, roughly double the defence budget. The Chancellor made the point himself in September. £1 in every £10 the government spends now goes on debt interest. If it were a department, he said, it would be the second biggest in Whitehall after Health, and he called spending on it “nothing progressive”. That is the context for the defence announcement. It is expected to include around £4.7bn to fill a gap in the Defence Investment Plan, plus billions routed through the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank, to be invested in defence and technology companies. None of it is being paid for by cutting spending, because the harder decisions on both have been deferred. It is paid for with long-term borrowing, due to begin in 2028-29, and the timetable to 3% of GDP has moved to next year’s spending review. The government’s case is that this is investment, and that the returns will outrun the cost of the borrowing. That is a reasonable argument and it may prove right. But the cost is known and the return is an estimate. The government pays around 5% to 6% to borrow today. The Treasury has also said it is lowering the discount rate in its Green Book, the rulebook for appraising projects, from 3.5% to 3%. That rate sets how much future benefits are worth against today’s costs, so a lower rate makes it easier for projects to pass. Because the money sits in public financial institutions as an asset, it is also not expected to count against the government’s debt rule. Borrowing can rise and the rule can still be met. In my view that is the weakness of rules of the government’s own making. 3. What the market is saying The 30-year gilt yield went through 6% on 1 October for the first time since 1998. It peaked at 6.036% on 7 October, and the UK became the first G7 economy to pay 6% on long-term borrowing since the euro crisis in 2012. The 10-year is around 5.35%. Yesterday the DMO sold £4.5bn of five-year gilts at 5.04%, the highest yield since 2008. Some of this is global, but the global picture has eased. The US 30-year yield hit 5.73% on 7 October, its highest since 2002, and is now around 5.30%. The US 10-year has fallen from 5.36% to about 5.00%. UK yields have come off too: the 30-year is around 5.76%, down from 6.04%, and the 10-year is around 5.35%, down from a high of 5.53%. Part of the UK’s breathing room is that the Bank of England stopped selling long-dated gilts on 17 September. The rest, in my view, is that bond investors are looking at France. Its 10-year yield went above 5% for the first time since 2002 amid riots and doubts over its budget, and the gap over German Bunds hit its widest since 2011. However, the UK’s 10-year still yields more than France’s, UK yields remain the highest in the G7, and investors still point to the UK’s exposure to inflation shocks and years of political uncertainty as the reason they charge a premium. 4. What traders are watching The DMO’s revised remit, published alongside the Budget, is the number the market cares about most. It sets how many gilts the government plans to sell this year. The April plan was £246.2bn. Consensus is for a rise of about £3.4bn, with some forecasts as high as £10bn. The other thing to watch is the type of gilt. The expectation is fewer long-dated gilts and more short-term borrowing, because the market is demanding so much to hold the long end. The long-dated share is forecast to fall to its lowest in over 35 years. That's really just a way to change how the government borrows, not how much. It lowers the interest cost today and increases the exposure to rate rises later, while the borrowing itself stays where it is. 5. The point Whichever way the speech lands, the issue is the same. Debt is above £3 trillion, interest costs are about double the defence budget, borrowing is running ahead of forecast, and the main response to every constraint is to defer the decision. The fiscal rules are of the government’s own making and are measured in 2029-30, so they can be met on paper while debt in pounds and the interest bill both keep rising. A Budget moves the numbers by a few billion either way. It does not change the arithmetic. Around £141bn of this year’s gilt sales simply replaces maturing debt, now refinanced at yields of 5% to 6%. Headroom of £10bn to £15bn does not go far against that: ING estimates a one percentage point rise in yields across the curve adds £8.4bn to the annual interest bill by 2029-30. This is the environment in which I find the case for Bitcoin easiest to make. The government’s fiscal rules are written by the government, measured years in the future and can be redrawn at any Budget. Bitcoin’s rules are written in code and enforced by thousands of independent nodes. Supply is fixed at 21 million and issuance follows a schedule set in advance. No Chancellor, remit or review can change that by announcement. I believe that makes it a hedge against exactly this kind of fiscal drift. This is my personal view and not financial advice. LSE: #SWC# #MORE# | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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