Claudia Sahm
@Claudia_Sahm
macro, Fed, fiscal. creator of the Sahm rule, a recession indicator.
4.5K Following 83.5K Followers
“We get influencers to sell bonds”
#PuffiSays# can we have one, too? He seems fun.
New cat alert! A call from a wildlife sanctuary about a "weird cat" has led to the first new cat species discovered in over 100 years in Bolivia’s Yungas forest ecoregion. Learn more about this feline surprise:
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Who sets the culture, if not the leaders?
SCOOP: Fed officials knew-or should have known-up to a year in advance that Silicon Valley Bank was vulnerable to a massive run, but were paralyzed by a "miasma of committees," according to people familiar with a new draft report commissioned by Fed governor Michelle Bowman.
Rather than targeting individual leaders, the review points to a long-standing culture of inaction.
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Get ready for the Fedspeak
via @business
Chairman Warsh has shown that he has steel in his spine by increasing interest rates seven weeks before the midterm elections.
Central bank independence is crucial for price stability, which in turn is crucial for long-term prosperity. President Trump is the greatest threat to Fed independence in modern history, going so far as to weaponise the criminal justice system against Fed officials in order to bend the committee to his desire for lower interest rates.
Chairman Warsh is now steward of this vitally important foundation of prosperity. He has shown he is up to the job.
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One of my favorite follows on whatever this is called. Raising interest rates is good…and bad. Easy to comprehend, and you get pics of Puff the Cat.
Was there a public explanation of why reporters were not allowed follow-up questions at the Warsh press conference? I take it there’s a general lack of enthusiasm for press briefings by the Fed chairman—and some past chairs as well.
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JPMorgan’s commodities team:
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @NPR's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way.
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Tomorrow’s CPI is important but not the only data we got this week (like diesel hitting $6). Upside risks to inflation are rising. My post on why I moved from hold to hike.
Hike or hold? That's the question for next week's Fed meeting. New post on why I moved from hold to hike: I'm no longer confident inflation will get back to 2% in the next year or two without the Fed acting. The upside risks: energy, tariffs, and the AI buildout.
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HISTORY: diesel has crossed $6/gal nationally for the first time ever, according to live GasBuddy data. every truck, every delivery, every package, every grocery run just got more expensive. the cost of moving everything in america just hit a record. Statement⬇️ (9/10/26, 3p CT)
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Yields on 30-year Treasuries just hit new post-2007 highs.
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries have reached the highest since 2023 and are less than a basis point away from the highest since 2008.
MAXXED OUT at $9.999!! GasBuddy data showing 5 stations in California that have hit the limit and are selling diesel at the dispensers highest possible price: $9.999/gal
The quality and credibility of the entire U.S. statistical system are at risk as the Administration seeks to change how congressional seats are apportioned and redistricting maps are drawn.
Four things have happened.
🧵
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good morning inbox, 2026.
The reason for the decennial census to ask about race/ethnicity has nothing to do with "wokeness".
To have good employment, GDP, & income data, we need good population estimates underpinning them. Demographic detail allows better alignment of pop estimates with known realities.
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Nice work, but worth modeling the mass extinction scenario your colleagues are talking about, too. That's truly the extreme scenario.
What will the rate of AI advancement and business adoption mean for growth and the labor market? What will happen to wages and unemployment and the share of a growing economy accruing to workers rather than to owners of capital?
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Trump's first threat to the new Fed chair puts policymakers in a bind, @jonathanjlevin says, but they have one option that's less bad than the others
“... credibility lives in what people believe the central bank will do under pressure. It is precisely when the pressure is greatest that the Fed’s credibility is won or lost.” my new @opinion piece
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Playing politics to preserve independence is a terrible strategy for the Fed, says @claudia_sahm, and @krogoff of all people should know
