Dario Perkins
@darioperkins
MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
2.6K Following 79.3K Followers
Fed meets once every 6 weeks to set interest rates and now, apparently, they need a reading week 🤣
Warsh talks an awful lot without saying anything. By the time he stops, @colbyLsmith will have forgotten her question.....
Thank you to everyone who shared my blog, the Perkini Report, over the weekend. Really didnt expect it to blow up like that. Glad that even those who disagreed could see the humour in it 🙏. And only one person called it the "Temu @citrini Report".... 🤣
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A brilliant and hilarious read on AI bubble.
Thank you to everyone who shared my blog, the Perkini Report, over the weekend. Really didnt expect it to blow up like that. Glad that even those who disagreed could see the humour in it 🙏. And only one person called it the "Temu @citrini Report".... 🤣
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Great read, straightforward, digestible for everyone.
Great read, obvious that most of the data supporting this has not been shared on the blog, but who gives this much away for free anyway?
It will bring you to tears, if anything, from laughing so hard.
The most pragmatic, scaring and enjoyable piece of financial analysis you will read today, taking all AI ecosystem’s BS (short for “BalanceSheet-as-a-Service”) down to earth.
Written by humans, for humans, thanks God. Just don’t tell it to Claude…
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Definitely worth reading.
I think that an air pocket is very likely and if we don’t hit one in 2027, there is a risk things accelerate so much that a collapse is unavoidable
Moreover looking back from 2030 without very prescriptive timelines is a good way to think about it
Where @darioperkins and I disagree is how concentrated is the AI consumption and whether majority of it is VC funded
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Lovely read, the most balanced crystal ball vision of the next 3 years I’ve read
does not resort to Big Short meme mischaracterization which is refreshing
@darioperkins Great piece. I think it is going to start earlier than late 2027. Perhaps it has already started. Don't forget that frontier US labs revenues are heavily subsidized. A 200/month subscription gets me 8000 in API credits in practice. Noone want to pay full prices.
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Such an easy read on the implications of the AI bubble and with a surprising happy ending
This resonates. I do wonder if discussions about a potential bubble was as prevalent in the lead up to the financial crisis. Is that memory too recent for some of us? Maybe that’s what makes it a shallower cycle. Also can’t discount how willing the government is to step in given a whiff of a downturn.
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Fun read from Dario. It does feel like the points finance guys have to make are more compelling now that we’re talking about external financing needs and credit spreads rather than Nvidia product cycles, HBM, and tokens.
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THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS
What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish?
there were signs, there are always signs 🤣
free link:
inspired by @citrini
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This week's podcast has dropped. Why everyone is wrong about so-called "fiscal dominance"..
PODCAST: BOND BULLS BEWARE
Can we forget about a Sovereign Debt Crisis?
@darioperkins @freyabeamish
Spotify:
Apple:
Really good thread
The US AI bubble is resting on 3 key assumptions: 1- shortage of compute 2- no roadblocks to the infra rollout and 3- there will be ample financing to support the outlandish capex spend assumptions.
Let’s take these one by one and put it past the Casio stress test.
1/38
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Is it just me or does Claude seem like a bit of an asshole?
This included the circular business relationships between companies, the dubious assumptions used by hyperscalers to keep massive data-center investment off their books, and much more. Some links follow:
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Krugman - who clearly hasn't tried to hire a car on his trip to Italy...
