Eric Lonergan
@ericlonners
Supercharge Me: Net Zero Faster
1.1K Following 9.4K Followers
Leviathan Live on September 3rd will be epic.
I've spent 23 years putting unlikely people in rooms together and seeing what happens, a lot of them with @davidmcw. I've never written about why before. Now I have. First piece: "Moving Chairs."
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"Give an economist a few drinks" .... is precisely what we do @kilkenomics which is why it is such fun. Few pints & u should hear the bants, insights, takedowns & laughs! Tickets on sale sept 4. An @TheEconomist v @DAcemogluMIT face-off? Fancy it lads?
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There is v little if any commentary on the role of fiscal policy in the AI capex boom. Probably the most significant difference to the late 90s. The deficit is actually crowding in private sector capex via an unusual channel. The irony of deficit antipathy in Silicon Valley.
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Very skeptical that the US Treasury buying back long-term debt will have any lasting impact impact on rates. Such things are durable only if you have unlimited firepower, and the willingness to use it.
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@TheStalwart Guess where the yield on 30s was in 1999, when the market was in danger of disappearing?
Sensational PR, though.
I am not happy about the Economist’s article, which feels like a hit piece. There is also a background to it, which is more troubling (as I will share at some point). I asked them to allow me to respond. I am waiting for their answer. If not in the magazine, I will share my response here.
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Love all the Silicon Valley types dismissing pure maths, and then proceeding to repeat high school errors in statistics. Mathematicians: there is so much to do!
And balance sheets, of course. What *are* the lessons of the internet bubble and GFC?
Time-inconsistency. What the Fed *should* be talking about.
Time-inconsistency. What the Fed *should* be talking about.
At some point the AI may make the economy wildly productive, and bring down costs. But right now, according to Bank of America, it's still in the phase of making inflation worse
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Experts in ‘intelligence’ seem to belief that profound questions in philosophy can be resolve in a soundbite with no real thought. 🤔
A monopolar or bipolar world of frontier models is a very dangerous world for humans.
This is why open-source is so important - we need a rich diversity of models that reflect the richness of human variation and let us all find the model that is best for each of us.
Also why so important that @grok is focused on objective truth above all else. Objective truth is just that: objective.
What is “best for humanity” is subjective.
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To summarise a huge philosophical literature: ‘the best for humanity’ may well be objective and relatively tractable - and ‘objective truth’, to the extent that it means anything, applies to a different domain.
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A monopolar or bipolar world of frontier models is a very dangerous world for humans.
This is why open-source is so important - we need a rich diversity of models that reflect the richness of human variation and let us all find the model that is best for each of us.
Also why so important that @grok is focused on objective truth above all else. Objective truth is just that: objective.
What is “best for humanity” is subjective.
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Great to be working for Chancellor @JohnHealey_MP as his new Parliamentary Private Secretary. We have a lot to do to build a new economy where inflation is low and the essentials are affordable again. (1/3)
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No 10 should run economic policy.
The idea that Shabana Mahmood would be ‘good for bond markets’ reveals no understanding of bond markets. Again. Can we please have someone who knows what they’re doing? @CJFDillow @darioperkins @MehreenKhn @dsquareddigest @MkBlyth
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The Dalio Fallacy: bond markets and debt @TheStalwart @CJFDillow @sjwrenlewis @MkBlyth @dsquareddigest @RobinWigg
Most commentary I see misses the implications. 1) Momentum may shift to diffusion and application of the technology rather than constant improvement. 2) Deflation should accelerate.
AI is now heavily regulated by the US government.
AI is now heavily regulated by the US government.
