Henry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPC
Senior Fellow, @EPPCdc. Host of Beyond the Polls and Conservative Crossroads podcasts -
561 Following 37.4K Followers
We believe that there is an unmet demand in this country for a revival of patriotism that politicians of both parties appear incapable of meeting, write AEI’s Ruy Teixeira and Karlyn Bowman.
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ZM's favorability is impressively high in NYC in the new Siena Poll. At 69 percent, he is far surpassing Adams and de Blasio at their peaks. Cuomo, interestingly, hit 86 percent among NYC voters (77 percent among NYS voters) in April 2020, right after the Covid stay-at-home order.
In NYS overall, ZM's favorability cross-tabs are fascinating. He is at 34-60 in the suburbs, 41-46 upstate, 45-46 among union households, 44-41 among moderates, 72-21 among 18-34s, 38-51 among the 55+.
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In WI, Hong was lumped in with El-Sayed as a progressive insurgent, but she lacked his candidate skills/campaign infrastructure; in MN, Flanagan helped the most by Craig’s Laken Riley vote. In CT, Larsen lost b/c of age, not ideology.
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Last night's primary results were a reminder that candidate and campaign quality matter – a lot.
Read our post-primary analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor and @ercovey.
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Knesset Voting Intention (%)
🔴Yashar: 16.3%
🔵Likud: 16%
🔴Together: 11.2%
🔵Otzma: 6.3%
🔴Democrats: 6.2%
🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 5.8%
🔵UTJ: 4.9%
🔵Shas: 4.2%
🟢Ra'am: 3.6%
🟢Hadash-Ta'al: 3.4%
🔴Zionist Home: 3.4%
🔵RZP: 3.2%
🟢Balad: 1.1%
🟣Blue & White: 1%
🟣Other: 2.5%
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Breakdown by bloc
🔴Opposition: 42.9%
🔵Netanyahu: 34.6%
⚪️Undecided: 8.2%
🟢Arabs: 8.1%
🟣Others: 3.7%
The GOP nominees for Minnesota senator and Alabama governor this year:
If David Crowley wins in November — especially if he brings a trifecta along with him — don’t be surprised if he instantly becomes one of the hottest commodities in Democratic politics.
He’s 40, just won a major upset and would be in charge of a hugely important swing state.
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Laura Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer couldn’t get their candidates across the finish line last week. Tony Evers, in just a few weeks, did.
new drop from Manitowoc County:
🟣 Crowley: 786
🟢 Hong: 708
1,972 total votes
Hong wins a Winnebago drop of 12 precincts by 686 to 657 votes. Now there are 4 precincts left in the county, as well as absentee. Of course it's not much compared to Milwaukee.
Huge update: 5 of 9 USB drives had audit logs, not actual results, copied to them. Bipartisan commission will go back to election warehouse, redownload, drive back again. 15k ballots believe to be impacted.
One hour delay
“Human error” says Paulina Gutierrez
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In retrospect the answer to "Do you still think Thanksgiving should be canceled" should be "no," not "I'm a chef, and..."
(That's where Hong eventually landed in other hits, but if she loses, this is what clipped her.)
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With the screwup in Milwaukee County delaying their absentee results, I am signing off for tonight. Enjoy the wait, you night owls you!
UPDATE: There will be a very long delay to the Milwaukee upload. Five of the USB sticks were missing results from the election.
Election officials have to go back to the absentee facility to get the results again.
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Two more precincts from Winnebago. Hong wins them by 8 votes, 44-36.
16 more precincts and absentee left from Winnebago, and of course still waiting on AB from Milwaukee. Votes tricking in from other places that generally benefit Crowley.
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As the rest of WI wraps up its stray vote counting, it's pretty clear Hong has to win the Milwaukee absentee ballots by 5% or more to have a slim shot.
Craig tells supporters in St. Paul: “To every person that supported me, I ask you tonight to support and elect Peggy Flanagan as the next U.S. senator from Minnesota.
Hong gains 900 votes in 30 of 69 of Winnebago's precincts, still waiting on 18 more precincts and absentee from the county.
Winnebago drops a lot of votes and Hong pulls into the lead there, but that only cuts Crowley's statewide lead to 3,000. Looking pretty dim for her.
"Wisconsin we have built something that will change politics forever. The work we have done will be remembered forever. I know we don’t have the final results right now, but what I do know is that we are ready to keep fighting," @FrancescaHongWI tells supporters.
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