French economist Thomas Piketty to Zack Polanski, "This neoliberal turn of the 80s has not been a huge success for the middle class and for average living standards" "The big promise that was made in the 80s by Reagan and Thatcher was, look, we are going to kill off progressive taxation, maybe inequality will rise, but the size of the pie is going to grow so fast like you've never seen." "Average wages, average income are going to grow like you've never seen. And so everybody will be happy." "30 years later, 40 years later. When I look at Brexit or when I look at the Trumpist United States, I don't see, very happy people." "And I think partly because of the failure of this promise and this is why right wing parties in these two countries, the Republican in the US and the Conservative and now Reform Party in Britain, have turned anti migrant toward identity politics because they have not delivered on the economic front and on living standards"

Michael Burry's last post reminds the previous bubbles. My generation started trading with dot com bubble, moved on with GFC and culminated with Covid. Everytime markets came back with more money supply to reach new levels, at least nominally. What is amazing is that the price of money kept going down despite supply more money with respect to economy. In response to Covid, #FederalReserve# did something we haven't seen before and increased the supply way over GDP... which brought us unicorns in stock market and cryptos to store the money. Burry's points are correct but timing is everything. In previous bubbles, correction always came after the money supply dried or stalled. We observed a mini version after 2022 when FED tried to reduce its balance sheet. When stocks started to wobble, FED responded with rate cuts despite no chance of #inflation# heading below 2%, even the fake one. Meanwhile, long end, as I posted so many times last 2 years, kept heading north... As foreigners started to balk away from US Trreasuries and bought #GOLD#, the long end kept pricing the real inflation. For now, markets want to play hakwish or dovish #KevinWarsh# and imaginary FED hikes. The idea is that they keep long end stalled with this kabuki after failing the inflation target since March 2021... over 5 years. In March 2000, #Nasdaq# / Gold was 17... today lower than 7.... so all these records are nominal... monopoly money. Can equities crash with so much fiat liquidity? As long as FED is ready to response with unlimited supply of more money, it is not that easy. We just saw how stocks reached new records as we lost nearly 20% of #OIL# supply just because FED and Treasury supplied more money than QE last 6 months. FED will not try to do anything else but lip service against this game they had been playing since GFC. Therefore the key is the bond market. If the sell of in bonds accelerate, then this sand castle might go down. Not before.

This is why they toppled the government in Kiev in 2014, despite knowing it would likely trigger war and knowing that only a small minority of Ukrainians wanted NATO membership. This is why they have sabotaged every peace deal for 12 years. This is why NATO chants that weapons are the path to peace, and basic diplomacy has been boycotted since 2022. This is why they pump billions into a corrupt system that keeps an extremely unpopular Zelensky in power and hunt for Ukrainian conscripts. This is why they pretend Ukraine is winning even as all evidence indicates otherwise. This is why we are not allowed to debate the overwhelming evidence of NATO's role without smears, intimidation, and censorship. The goal was never peace; it was to set up Ukrainians as cannon fodder to weaken a strategic rival of NATO.

🦔Meta announced it will sell excess AI compute capacity to outside customers. The company spent $145 billion on AI infrastructure this year, put chips in fabric tents to speed up deployment, drafted 6,500 engineers into AI training they call soul-crushing, and cut thousands of jobs to fund the buildout. CoreWeave stock dropped on the news. My Take Six months ago these companies said there wasn't enough compute in the world. Now Meta is selling its leftovers. A company doesn't sell surplus of something it needs. CoreWeave went public on the promise that demand for AI compute would outstrip supply for years. SpaceX started selling compute too. Now Meta joins them. Every new seller of excess capacity makes it harder for the next company to justify a premium price, and every one of them undercuts the scarcity story that the IPOs were priced on. Three companies are now competing to sell compute they built on the assumption someone else would buy it. The demand that was supposed to absorb all of this hasn't shown up, and nobody wants to be the last one holding unsold capacity when the market figures that out. Hedgie🤗

FUN FACTS! • Mar 21: “48 hours or we obliterate them.” • Mar 23: Extended deadline 5 days. • Mar 26: Extended deadline another 10 days. • Apr 4: “All Hell will reign down.” • Apr 5: “We’re blowing up the whole country.” • Apr 6: “The entire country can be taken out in one night.” • Apr 7: “A whole civilization will die tonight.” • Apr 7: Paused attack less than 2 hours before his own deadline. • Apr 8: Announced ceasefire/talks. • Apr 19: Threatened every bridge and power plant in Iran. • Apr 21: Extended talks again. • May 6: Claimed “great progress” toward a final agreement. • May 15: Backed a 20-year enrichment pause. • May 17: “There won’t be anything left of them.” U.S. foreign policy should probably involve something more coherent than rotating apocalypse countdowns.