What would you say if a car company said, "please regulate our cars, we keep making them faster and more dangerous, we can't stop." You would say they have lost their minds. This is what the AI companies are doing. They don't need to be regulated. They need to be investigated.

I genuinely believe that Dario and Moskovitz are primarily ideological. But a captured industry is exactly what you build when you have the ideology they do. What they have been building is *simply* the shape of their ideology. In this post, I focused on the financial aspect. These are not mutually exclusive. The ideology is just the flip-side of the financial aspect; every system needs an ideology, and their preferred system is a protected guild with them as priests. But you also can bet that many involved are not like them, who just want to protect the gravy train. But it's just X. You don't have to agree with the interpretation. The hard data are objectively real. If you think I got something factually wrong, send me a DM. I did several complete audit passes with Codex at the end, but I didn't systematically mine this like I would other kinds of cases that I would do for work outside of X. There are probably still important holes remaining -- maybe shocking ones. That's why I left a Github. Anyone can check or build on it. I just wanted to get all the data in one place, because we keep arguing about it. I will check again tomorrow. Also, this is what Claude said when I started to look at everything; I actually don't full agree with Claude on this. I don't think just because METR might be tough on Anthropic in November that this proves anything. You can always rugpull after building trust. And to those who say, "you know, a lot of modern systems are like this," that's true. But you don't want to build a new one like this *on purpose*. At least let it get corrupted *later* after trying to avoid it at first. We actually have a great opportunity to get a fresh start with AI.

I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances. What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation. Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture. It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off. Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle. It starts with METR. Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models. He proposes METR for this purpose. But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock. Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio. And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem. This stock was worth $500 million early last year. It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later. METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth. Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well. But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much. The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all. The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll. If this were the end of it, that's bad. But that isn't all. The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom. The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others. They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's. All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile. As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder. Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created. From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts. This itself is an objective fact. The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it. But the problem also goes in the other direction: If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die. Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen. Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly. They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic. And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly. What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations. The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture. And that feedback loop is winning. That's what Jacob Coxon is. China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China. America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level. Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences. Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully. It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America. Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear. Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers. Congress must investigate. Evidence and Github in next post. Then some supplementary figures.

Over the past half century, Democrats have captured American knowledge-producing institutions. AI threatens to make that achievement less relevant. Therefore, Democrats will now try to capture AI. They will provoke public panic to push for government regulations to achieve it.

Investors in Anthropic founded Open Philanthropy, the leading org promoting AI Doom They have a stake in regulation on AI that excludes competitors OP is the major funder of Tarbell Tarbell Fellows penned many articles on AI, shaping perceptions 1-in-3 in The Dispatch 1-in-5 in TIME 1-in-7 in LA Times 1-in-7 in The Verge 1-in-12 in Science

Behind the viral Coxon story is a tightly financially entangled regulatory capture cartel. The story is almost too clean to beelieved. Almost everyone involved in the past couple of weeks leading up to the viral Coxon story are paid for by investors in Anthropic. Good Ventures and Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving is owned by Dustin Moskowitz, who led Anthropic's Series A. Survival and Flourishing Fund funded others who pumped up the hysteria in parallel. Survival and Flourishing Fund are run by Jaan Tallinn -- an investor in Anthropic. Then you have amplifiers of Coxon, who are at Anthropic itself. All of these individuals serve to benefit financially from the doomer hysteria and the regulatory capture that could result in its wake. Coxon himself is a nepo baby -- he doesn't need the money. He just harvested the virtue signal. Hence the smug smile while talking to interviewers about humanity's impending extermination. Nepos gonna nepo.

The Coxon psyop was a decade and more than a billion dollars in the making. Here's the story. Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) is the grant-providing vehicle of Dustin Moskowitz. CG is the overwhelmingly foremost funder of AI alarmism, with more than $1B in grants and $1B committed for 2026. Moskowitz, who founded and runs Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving, led Anthropic's Series A in 2021. Holden Karnofsky co-founded Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving and took a board seat at OpenAI when Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving gave it $30M in 2017. Karnofsky is married to Anthropic's president Daniela Amodei. He then joined Anthropic in January 2025. Coxon, who started the viral thread, received a scholarship from Good Ventures, which is the foundation that funds Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving. He coordinated his message ahead of time with the Wall Street Journal, which published its exclusive on him before he posted on X. Coxon spent three years pretraining at OpenAI, the company that took $30M from Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving. The funder of the AI alarmist ecosystem Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving, in other words, is also an owner of Anthropic, and his organization is deeply entangled with both OpenAI and Anthropic. Anthropic's researchers in turn amplified Coxon. The same people who own the organizations that advocate for regulation, in other words, are those who own the companies that would dominate the market under that regulatory regime, which would prevent competitors from entering the market. And this work all started ten years ago, right when these companies were founded, paving the way. It's diabolically brilliant. Win at the competition, then deploy activists to help you regulate the market and ensure your monopoly. You have to respect the planning, manipulation, and foresight this took.

X is the social media platform where the top people from every field post and share information. It is where you listen in if you want to know which way Western civilization is headed. No other platform has the prestige that X does. It is just a fact.

Elon Musk is the single most important driver of the vibe shift across the West. He allowed people to speak. He reversed the mind virus. X provided the antibodies for the mind virus. They are working. It was an extraordinary achievement, one on par with his other work.

Nope They trusted the experts They won't even acknowledge that trusting the experts might be wrong -- even when it is shown that the experts knew they were lying They will try to memory hole everything They do not want to stop trusting the experts

Just a reminder that deepseek v3 came out 18 months ago and was considered revolutionary at the time but is basically unusable today There was a fierce debate at the time about vibe coding and the argument was that LLMs can never create anything new because they are limited by their training data Those engineers were partly right and vibe coding was a real nightmare, I cannot believe what we used to put ourselves through with Sonnet 3.5, but we also knew real new things could be made and that the detractors were wrong I guess us non-engineers saw it most clearly (I would like to think so at least) because we were astonished at the new things we could do without the programming background, and we had nothing to lose and everything to gain in our enthusiasm Then came Opus 4.5 earlier this year which changed everything Suddenly real production code became possible with so much less friction and headache Everyone complained endlessly about models being nerfed or quantized but there was a steady march of progress from 4.5 to 4.8 Now a completely new crop of models is coming out that is not quite a 4.5 moment but something close We are not only getting more polish but things are becoming a little freaky, entire isolated domains become possible to combine with small teams or even just one person into new applications that would have required large infusions of time and capital in the past My wife back in 2021 told me about AI but I was in healthcare, I thought she was being a little nutty, and she talked like something from a science fiction film was coming and she got involved in it early on She never stops letting me know that she was right, and she was The next year is going to be wild, the world is truly going to change over the next few years, the scale of disruption will be a combination of astonishing and awesome, but also catastrophic There are many amazing things ahead and extraordinary challenges and opportunities We are living inside one of one of the biggest revolutions in human history