OSZ
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Tracking the latest political polls and Elections in one place
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Greg Abbott’s odds rise with reports of high election day turnout in Texas
Texas Governor Race Per Kalshi
🔴 Greg Abbott: 66% (+6)
🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 34% (-6)
(+/- vs poll opening)
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NBC: Republicans need the midterms to be high turnout to do well
Will You Vote:
Definitely: 🔵 D+12
Probably: 🔴 R+16
No: 🔴 R+22
CNN: Jewish support for Democrats in New York has collapsed
NY Generic Ballot Among Jews
2018: 🔵 Dem +40
2022: 🔵 Dem +49
2026: 🔵 Dem +13
Days with crude oil above $100 a barrel
Obama: 🔴 308 days
Trump 1st: 🟢 0 days
Biden: 🟡 83 days
Trump 2nd: 🟢 24 days
CNN: Republicans are polling at the same level among white voters without a college degree as they did in 2024.
Oct 2024: 🔴 Republicans +26
2026: 🔴 Republicans +26
2026 Q3 GDP Forecast surges to +5.1% per Atlanta Fed
U.S. GDP Per Quarter:
2025 Q2: 🟢 +3.8%
2025 Q3: 🟢 +4.4%
2025 Q4: 🟢 +0.5%
2026 Q1: 🟢 +2.1%
2026 Q2: 🟢 +1.5%
*2026 Q3: 🟢 +5.1%
*(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Projection)
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Florida State University precinct via @ZacharyDonnini
🟡 James Fishback: 89%
🔴 Byron Donalds: 4%
Fox: New 2026 Maine Senate poll is within the margin of error
NYT: Marco Rubio Traveled on Decoy Plane From Turkey Without Trump
2026 Maine Senate Race
🔵 Troy Jackson 48%
🔴 Susan Collins (inc): 46%
Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) | 8/6-8/10
The request from JD Vance amid concern about further destabilizing energy markets Per FT
Yesterday was historically bad for polling
Minnesota:
Poll Average: 🔵 Flanagan +2.0
Results: 🔵 Flanagan +19.6
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🟡 Lindell +6.6
Results: 🔴 Demuth +6.6
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🔵 Hong +24.5
Results: 🟡 Crowley +0.4
Michigan:
Poll Average: 🔵 El-Sayed +13
Results: 🔵 El-Sayed +1
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Yesterday was historically bad for polling
Minnesota:
Poll Average: 🔵 Flanagan +2.0
Results: 🔵 Flanagan +19.6
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🟡 Lindell +6.6
Results: 🔴 Demuth +6.6
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🔵 Hong +24.5
Results: 🟡 Crowley +0.4
Michigan:
Poll Average: 🔵 El-Sayed +13
Results: 🔵 El-Sayed +1
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Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won.
Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken.
The Washington Post analyzed prediction market calibration on hundreds of primary races — here's what they found:
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2026 Wisconsin Governor Race
🔵 David Crowley: 47%
🔴 Tom Tiffany: 44%
GBAO (🔵 Democratic pollster) | 8/3
Wisconsin Governor Primaries Per NYT
Combined Primary totals
🔵 Democrats: 61.7%
🔴 Republicans: 38.3%
Marco Rubio says the State Department will use all available tools to dismantle birth tourism networks and defend the integrity of U.S. citizenship.
Polls were historically off in both Michigan and Wisconsin, where progressives underperformed.
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🔵 Hong +24.5
Results: 🟡 Crowley +0.4
Michigan:
Poll Average: 🔵 El-Sayed +13.0
Results: 🔵 El-Sayed +1.0
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Polls were historically off in both Michigan and Wisconsin, where progressives underperformed.
Wisconsin:
Poll Average: 🔵 Hong +24.5
Results: 🟡 Crowley +0.4
Michigan:
Poll Average: 🔵 El-Sayed +13.0
Results: 🔵 El-Sayed +1.0
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Last 5 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Polls
State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +22
Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +18
Marquette University: 🔵 Hong +25
State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +29
Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +20
Results (88% Reporting): 🟡Crowley +0.5
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