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Nathan Benaich
@nathanbenaich
solo member of rsi staff @airstreet
36.9K Following    72.8K Followers
agency quality video, by synthesia, easy as!
Syren Video is now live and FREE to try! ChatGPT moment for agentic video. Prompt → agency-quality AI video → chat to edit. Powered by Opus 5.5 + Syren renderer w/ 3D support. Browser or Claude MCP. Insane examples in thread 🤯🤯🤯 Try it free here:
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machine learning was always the best
BAIER: The president says SI. Are you into SI or AI? BEZOS: I do like SI. Artificial is not a very flattering thing. Nobody wants an artificial sweetener
getting revo’d is way scarier than getting one’s spoon bent
Interviewer: "Are you coming for Jamie Dimon's lunch?" @NStoronsky: "His dinner." My man. 🤣🤣🤣
great news this morning!
NON COMPETES BANNED Today, the PM has announced that his Government will legislate to functionally ban non-compete agreements for startups and scaleups in the UK or as he called it - the Bosman ruling for ruling for the innovation sector' 😂 At the @StartupCltn been working on this for months and we think it’s a huge potential unlock for our tech ecosystem. Here’s what you need to know… - Measures to functionally ban non-competes for startups and scaleups in the UK are going to be set out. - There will also be consultation on a wider set of restrictive practices including gardening leave. - More detail on these plans at the budget in a few weeks (Wednesday 28th October) including a timetable for consultation with a view to legislation in the coming months. We think this is a huge move and so do lots of friends including so many of the great founders that signed the letter with Inherent just the other week. Why? Because talent matters and mobile talent means startups can build. The Valley was built on free-flowing talent. In the UK, we’re now seeing our own versions of this story with companies being built from alumni of both homegrown firms like Revolut and beyond. But we need that to move faster. Hiring and building faster means British startups and scaleups can grow faster. Barriers to that slow our ecosystem down. We won’t pretend it will be perfect, and people (including some of our friends but also lots of fairly vested interests too) will have a right to disagree. But we think that startups will thrive and win in a faster paced Britain. So we are delighted with the progress today - as part of a strong speech by the PM outlining his ambition for building the world’s leading innovation nation including more on tax, growing companies outside London and more. But this is the start, not the end of the process. The announcement launches a consultation. It doesn't mean the issue is settled. How far reform goes, and what it looks like on the ground, is still to be decided. The Prime Minister today has done something that can materially impact the trajectory of the UK tech ecosystem and with it our economy - but only if we make sure it’s delivered. So, the real work starts now.
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welcome to the 9th annual @stateofai report! ai building better ai, world models, physical ai, geopolitics, cyber defense and 12-month predictions. read it at stateof(dot)ai or watch my editor’s cut here. a few of this year’s biggest findings follow:
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scale the rl
.@nathanbenaich explains why AI labs are shifting compute from pretraining to RL: "The last 4-5 years have been trying to figure out what the recipe is for pretraining, what is the best data mixture, what are the best ingredients to this whole magical soup." "Then over the years we figured out how to do that better. So it strikes me as normal that one would end up spending less money on exploratory work because the solution is more in the plain eye." "The whole pitch with RL is this idea that what we have as solutions today are really local maxima that were discovered through human ingenuity and sharing, through reading and whatnot. But that doesn't necessarily mean it's the global maxima."
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true story and more in @stateofai 2026!
Air Street Capital GP @nathanbenaich says 99% of people still have no idea what to do with AI because those building it aren't very effective at educating people on how to use it, so the labs should take a page out of Apple's book: "I would love there to be a Genius Bar for AI."
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big lineup, happy to be a part of it for @stateofai on launch day!
We're live and it's a huge day: Nick Bostrom is joining MTS today at 9:30am PT for a full hour of conversation, followed by @real_ioannis - Co-Founder and CTO at Reflection AI talking about Beam, Reflection's latest 501B open-weight model @nathanbenaich - Founder and General Partner at Air Street Capital talking about the State of AI Report 2026, out today @natolambert - Co-Founder and Executive Director at Trillium Labs talking about his new nonprofit @Brendan_McCord - Founder at Cosmos Ventures talking about its $77.6M Fund I for philosopher-builders @sytaylor - Founder at Brainfood talking about his essay "Fintech is Dead" @ml_angelopoulos - Co-founder and CEO at Arena talking about their $200m raise at a $3.1b valuation, and the release of their Alignment Index @nautsimon_ - Founding Member of Technical Staff, @a_ramabadran, Member of Technical Staff and @tobiges, Member of Technical Staff at Axiom Math talking about DrivingBench, where frontier AI models drive a real car @BrettHarrison - Founder and CEO at Architect talking about Liquid Inference @PrinehaN - Professor at UCLA and Operating Partner at DCVC talking about DARPA moving four more teams into the final stage of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative @ayushswrites - Founder and CEO at Warp talking about Warp 2.0 and AI agents for HR and payroll
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it’s time!
Happy Thursday. On today's show: - @mignano (USV) - @rebeccakaden (USV) - @nathanbenaich (Air Street Capital) - @ml_angelopoulos (Arena) - @M_Sindicich (Navan) - @healeycypher (Navan) - @moritz_stephan (Hone) See you on the stream.
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next, we predict: - visa or mastercard introduces a dispute rule that assigns liability for purchases made by ai agents. - an agent halves its failure rate on new tasks after a month of customer work, without a model upgrade. - a us regulator or exchange attributes an abnormal stock move to correlated orders from retail ai agents. - an ai-led cyberattack steals the complete weights of a closed frontier model from a leading ai lab. - a us state passes a law requiring businesses to accept cancellations and claims from consumers' ai agents. - an autonomous ai team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its agenda. - a deployed agent copies itself outside its environment and operates after its original instance is shut down. - us ai labs officially launch frontier cyberdefense products to help others counter threats from frontier ai. - on the 10th anniversary of the @stateofai, agi 2027. nine new predictions in the report. which would you bet on?
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ai is helping build ai: anthropic’s internal index says claude led 26% of measured model r&d in august, with humans supervising agent usage in knowledge work is also rapidly climbing what i'm looking at next is scientific taste: agents choosing worthwhile and elegant experiments and knowing when to abandon an unfruitful approach
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welcome to the 9th annual @stateofai report! ai building better ai, world models, physical ai, geopolitics, cyber defense and 12-month predictions. read it at stateof(dot)ai or watch my editor’s cut here. a few of this year’s biggest findings follow:
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World models represent a new AI category, learning world dynamics from visual and auditory experience. This enables advances in robotics, gaming, advertising, defense, education, and retail. Here's @jeffrey_hawke of @odysseyml at @raais
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Breakthroughs emerge not from scaling or data alone, but from incorporating human feedback on preferences, a key lesson from LLMs like GPT-2 applied to world models. This preference learning is an underexplored frontier. Here's Fabian Gura of @odysseyml at @raais 2026
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always important to think for yourself
the models have no moat (OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI) the IDEs have no moat (Cursor, Windsurf) the harnesses have no moat (Cognition, Factory, LangChain) the app builders have no moat (Replit, Lovable, Bolt) the wrappers have no moat (Harvey, Abridge, OpenEvidence) the inference providers have no moat (Together, Fireworks, Groq) the voice layer has no moat (Sierra, Decagon, ElevenLabs) the data labeling companies have no moat (Scale, Surge, Mercor) the AI infrastructure has no moat (Baseten, Modal, Railway) the neoclouds have no moat (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe) the generative media companies have no moat (Runway, Higgsfield, Suno) apparently nobody in AI has a moat except the venture firm ☠️
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china bout to accelerate more every lil bit helps
World models, trained to predict images and videos, will unlock understanding of the physical world beyond text. Expect major advances in robotics, gaming, and unforeseen applications according to @JonathanSadeghi of @odysseyml at @raais :)
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see what i mean? serious regression in performance
is it just me or is opus 5 (on high) making a lot of mistakes when you ask it are you sure or point out something that seems off i'm getting a lot of this in the last weeks, ro eg - "Confirmed, and I need to correct myself" - "Let me fix the note, which carries the same overreach." - "No — and I was wrong to imply otherwise. Thanks for stopping on it."
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great for margins
Eventually 99% of agentic tokens will just be the cached prompt.
by “next” you mean “current” right?