Nvidia $NVDA Q2’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $96.2B (Est. $92.2B) 🟢; +106% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.22 (Est. $2.10) 🟢; +120% YoY 🔹 Data Center: $89.0B (Est. $85.8B) 🟢; +117% YoY 🔹 Adj Gross Margin: 75.0% (Est. 75%) 🟡; +250 bps YoY Q3 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $108.0B +/- 2% (Est. $104.2B) 🟢 🔹 Adj Gross Margin: 74.0% +/- 50 bps 🔹 Adj OpEx: ~$9.0B Segment Revenue: 🔹 Data Center: $89.0B; +117% YoY 🔹 Edge Computing: $7.2B; +27% YoY Financials: 🔹 Adj Operating Income: $64.0B; +124% YoY 🔹 Adj OpEx: $8.2B; +54% YoY 🔹 Adj Net Income: $54.0B; +118% YoY 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $21.3B 🔹 Cash & Cash Equivalents: $22.4B 🔹 Short-Term Debt: $1.0B 🔹 Long-Term Debt: $32.4B Capital Return: 🔹 Shareholder Returns: ~$26.0B in Q2 🔹 Remaining Authorization: ~$99.0B Key Updates: 🔹 GAAP-to-non-GAAP adjustment includes $7.8B of net gains from equity securities 🔹 Outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China 🔹 Vera Rubin is ramping into full production with racks running at partners Comments: 🔸 “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.” 🔸 “The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam. Vera Rubin, now in full production, was built to power exactly this moment.”

1/ I'm a cardiologist. I've practiced for twenty-five years, through a lot of "breakthroughs" that turned out to be press releases. So understand the weight of what I'm about to say: I have never seen a single week in medicine like the one we just lived through. In the span of a few days, four separate scientific breakthroughs landed. The stock market treated them as four unrelated stories and sent a handful of biotech companies soaring. But that's the shallow read. Look closer and they are not four stories at all. They are four faces of the same story — the biggest shift in medicine since the discovery of antibiotics. Medicine is becoming programmable. Individualized. Written for one human being instead of the average of millions. Let me walk you through exactly what happened, in plain language, and show you where this is actually headed. Because the future arrived quietly this week, and most people scrolled right past it.

After news of its record $100BN off balance sheet SPV debt deal, Broadcom CDS has gone vertical, hitting a record 122 at the close, with Nvidia also blowing out to a new all time wide. Credit is cracking

At midnight on February 6th, earlier this year, the doorbell to our apartment rang. The doorbell was followed by a pounding on the door. I answered the door and a security person in our building handed me his phone. It was my oldest daughter Eloise. She had found my 26-year-old daughter unconscious on the floor of her apartment and had called 911. The EMT team was already there, but they did not know what was wrong with Lucy or to which hospital they would take her. I threw on some clothes and jumped in an Uber heading east toward Brooklyn. (Lucy lived alone in Williamsburg.) On the way, I learned that they were taking her to Elmhurst, a City trauma hospital in Queens. I arrived about five minutes after the ambulance to join Eloise, Lucy’s mom, and a friend, and waited to learn what was wrong. After about 15 minutes, I asked a nurse where she was. I looked over his shoulder to his computer. Next to her name, it said “non-responsive.” I walked into the emergency room and wandered around looking for her until I found her unconscious on a gurney surrounded by several doctors and nurses. By about 2:30am with the results from a CAT scan, Lucy’s doctors had determined that she had a massive brain hemorrhage and would need an emergency hemicraniectomy to release the pressure on her brain and remove the blood from the hemorrhage. I called our wonderful friend and family doctor Eddie Fisher and explained what was going on. He woke up Josh Bederson, Chairman of Neurosurgery at Mount Sinai, to find out more about Zach Hickman, the neurosurgeon on call that night. Dr. Bederson said Hickman was an excellent surgeon, which was comforting as we had no choice. The surgery to save Lucy’s life began around 3:15am and finished around 5:30am. It was successful. The following day, I joined Lucy in an ambulance while she was being transferred to Mount Sinai on Madison Avenue. Later that day, we determined from Lucy’s Oura ring that her hemorrhage had occurred around 9am, which meant that more than 19 hours had passed from the time of the hemorrhage to the completion of the surgery to release the pressure on her brain (I only wish @ouraring had an alert for this kind of a medical event. Imagine it could call a family member if the wearer doesn’t cancel the alert). I later learned that the standard of care is not to do surgery to save a patient with a large brain bleed if more than five hours have passed since the hemorrhage. Even when the surgery is done, I was told that the likely outcome for the patient is a few months in a nursing home and death from pneumonia. When I met Lucy’s doctors, I did my best to inspire them: “Let’s see what can be accomplished if we give her the best care possible and we invest unlimited resources to restore her to life.” And I promised that whatever we learned we would make available to everyone. Dr. Chris Kellner, her neurosurgeon, and Dr. David Putrino, Director of Rehabilitation Innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System have led Lucy’s care team since that day. Words cannot describe the remarkable and compassionate care that she has received beginning with the EMT team and then from nurses, doctors, therapists, and the army of people who have worked to save her and return her to life. To this day, we have a daily Zoom where we discuss her progress and make adjustments to her care. While her care and oversight have been incredible, the learnings for the Mount Sinai team have also been elucidating and will assist in the care of many others. Lucy began in a bad place. She was in a coma for several weeks and then awoke not being able to breathe on her own, unable to walk, see or speak. Over the last six months, she has recovered her cognition – she understands everything including her circumstance – is able to walk a hundred or more steps at a time with assistance, is making progress with sounds, vowels and consonants and the beginnings of speech, but she remains unable to see. Each day, she makes a little progress, and daily progress compounds. Every day I tell her that she just needs to make a little progress and it won’t be long before she is back. We remain optimistic that Lucy will return to normal function. It will likely take years, but I believe it is only a matter of time, hard work, and technological progress, along with some, and perhaps a lot, of divine intervention. Many people have been praying for Lucy and we are incredibly grateful for the prayers and remarkable support she has received. Lucy’s friends have been with her every day since the beginning, and their presence and friendship have saved her life and helped to rebuild and maintain her spirit. And on a very positive note, Lucy’s challenge has brought together our entire modern family who have all been incredibly devoted to her care and recovery. Lucy's vision and other faculties may require some form of brain computer interface, work that is underway at Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience, Science, Synchron, Nudge, and other companies in the space. If you are going to have a devastating brain injury, now is the best time in history for that to happen. We are living in a world when you can be confident that the blind will soon see again. We are going to do everything we can to help make that happen, including by assisting existing companies in the space. With respect to our promise to make Lucy’s care available to others, we have made good progress. In May, a real estate colleague made me aware of a 93% vacant, brand new, 400,000 square foot Class A+ purpose-built biotech facility on West End Avenue between 65th and 66th Streets that missed the market and was available for sale. The Pershing Square Foundation acquired the building 60 days later. We also put under contract an adjoining 130,000 square foot building at 320 West 66th Street that is currently being used by Saturday Night Live for studio space. The building has 35-foot ceilings with massive column-free spaces that can be converted into superb rehabilitation facilities. We will close on the SNL building in December. We are also acquiring an adjoining vacant lot with additional air rights. With just the existing zoning rights, we can add a 150,000 square feet for a total of 680,000 square feet, a lab footprint larger than Rockefeller University, and that’s without including the potential for an upzoning that would allow for substantially more buildable area on the site’s 3.4 acres with spectacular views of the Hudson. Our goal is to build the world’s greatest brain research, rehabilitation, recovery, human optimization, and longevity institute. We have named it The Ackman Oxman Institute or the AOI for lack of a better name, but also to reinforce the point that Neri and I and our family are all-in on the mission. The AOI will be patient-centric. It will not be an academic research institute that produces lots of papers, a Nobel Prize winner or two, but little if any results for patients. We will be laser-focused on cures, treatments, devices, rehabilitation and exercise equipment, and targeted and basic research with a goal of massively accelerating the time from idea to innovation to production to helping a patient. While the AOI will be a non-profit, it will have highly commercial instincts. The AOI will have its own venture funding and will work to develop innovations to create companies that we will seed, assist, and spinout to ensure technologies, treatments, techniques, and drugs get to patients as promptly as possible. On one 3.4 acre campus in what is still the greatest city in the world, we will do neurosurgery, neuroscience, rehabilitation, nutrition, BCI and device development, human trials, hyperbaric oxygen treatments, and life extension programs, and we will mandate and incentivize collaboration among the teams with no silos, politics, bureaucracy, or any other constraint that is inconsistent with the mission. Mount Sinai will be an important partner and deservedly so, but it won’t be our only hospital or medical school partner as we don’t believe any institution has a monopoly on the best ideas or the best talent. We don’t believe in exclusive relationships because that is not in the best interest of patients. Five years ago, we considered launching a brain institute inspired by Neri’s mom who sadly died from Alzheimer’s. We couldn’t make the math work as the real estate was too expensive and we believed it would be too difficult to recruit the best talent from universities to our effort. Since then, the real estate became available at a 70% discount, universities became a much less attractive place to work due to politics outweighing meritocracy, protests that disrupt learning, the curse of antisemitism, and a decline in funding. Fortunately, during the same time, I made sufficient personal economic progress to make the AOI possible. The advance of AI in the last few years will also enable us to greatly accelerate our mission. AI still has a lot to learn about human intelligence and the brain, and the AOI should be at the forefront of the interplay between the brain and AI. Today, I am making a public filing disclosing a gift from Neri and me of ~$400 million or 10,000,000 shares of Pershing Square Inc. (PS) to the AOI. It is very early days for Pershing Square so these shares are intended to anchor the long-term work of the AOI as the shares compound over time while generating what we expect will be a growing stream of quarterly dividends to fund the Institute. We will also be announcing an additional gift of similar and potentially greater size which won’t be in the form of Pershing Square stock to provide the AOI with the short- and intermediate-term runway necessary to enable it to achieve its goal of becoming a self-sustaining institute, which reinvests all of its revenues, royalties, and the economic rewards of company formation to advance the fields of brain health and human longevity. Neri and I have chosen to anchor the funding of the AOI to maintain vision alignment and limit the need for the organization to focus on fundraising. We expect the AOI to be the best-resourced brain, rehab, recovery, and longevity institute in the world. We are grateful to have been able to form a board which includes Dean Kamen (our generation’s Thomas Edison), George Yancopoulus (CEO of Regeneron), James Rothman (Nobel Laureate), Bernardo Sabatini (neuroscientist), Chris Kellner (neurosurgeon), Olivia Flatto (CEO Pershing Square Foundation), Neri Oxman, and myself. We have recently identified a CEO who we expect to announce by October along with other key hires, and are beginning searches for a Chief Scientific Officer, a Chief AI/Technology Officer, a Chief Operating Officer, a Chief Financial Officer, and other key leadership roles. If you find what we are building compelling and want to be part of the leadership team that creates and builds the AOI from a standing start, please send an email to: search@aoiinst.org with a short note as to why you believe you can help. Please include your best three ideas for the AOI along with a summary of your background and your most important accomplishments. We promise strict confidentiality to those expressing interest in working with us. We have learned from Lucy that the brain can recover from even catastrophic injury. There is so much more work to be done as the mind is a terrible thing to waste. For details from my Pershing Square SEC filing see:

Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI capex. The fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are at least 2x higher than contracted rates is the missing piece from the discussion about hyperscaler credit, which is the only fundamental factor behind this selloff. Multiple private companies are planning on spending at least 2x more per GPU for compute as contracts roll-off and some have spoken about this publicly.   As contracts roll-off, hyperscale growth rates are going to continue to accelerate as their installed bases of compute reprice higher. Hyperscale operating cash flow growth using a mix of estimates and actuals is modeled to accelerate from 31% in the first quarter of 2026 to 50% in the second quarter. This acceleration should continue for the rest of the year and this is not in estimates which incorrectly model a deceleration in the third quarter from my perspective.   Some math. Consensus estimates are probably for 25-35 gigawatts added by hyperscale and neoclouds in CY28 (using a range as standing up datacenters is hard and a lot of the neos plus labs are still private).  At 60b per gigawatt, that is 1.5 to 2.2 trillion in capex. Consensus estimates for hyperscale/neo operating cash flow is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion. I think this gets revised up materially as contracts reprice and growth accelerates so the 100b to 700b that would hypothetically need to be plugged by debt goes away. And their credit profiles materially improve. Not to mention the said 100b to 700b would be less than 1 turn of incremental leverage on consensus EBITDA estimates. And obviously the Nvidia and Broadcom “credit wrappers” help improve creditworthiness as well given their FCF profiles.   OpenAI, Cursor/Grok and the various Open Source inference clouds have accelerated materially over the last two months per public data and Anthropic continues to grow insanely fast while likely generating FCF. This - along with the fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are so far ahead of contract - are the missing pieces from the BofA chart on hyperscale FCF vs. semiconductor FCF.   Hyperscalers are underearning and anyone who signed a contract for GPU compute in 2024 and 2025 is overearning. Operating cash flow will be enough to fund capex but as contracts reprice and cloud growth continues to accelerate then spreads likely come in as well.  
Would also note that CDS markets are easy to manipulate - was a huge feature of the GFC - short the stock and then buy the CDS. So I would not put attach much signal to CDS. 
Net, net I’m not that concerned about the widening spreads in hyperscale credit. The real risk is that bringing power online and energizing all these GPUs is really hard but we are getting better at this every day.

$BE CEO says recent customer conversations point to accelerating AI infrastructure investment Bloom signed its first hyperscaler deal less than a year ago and now works with every major U.S. hyperscaler positioning the company as the emerging standard for behind-the-meter power

SK hynix (Market Cap: KRW 1,132.2632 trillion) 2Q26 Earnings Results ▶️ Results: Revenue: KRW 79 trillion (+257% YoY) (Consensus: KRW 84 trillion; 5.5% below consensus) Operating profit: KRW 61 trillion (+557% YoY) (Consensus OP: KRW 64 trillion; 5.4% below consensus) Operating margin: 76.3% (Consensus OPM: 76.2%; 0.1%p above consensus)

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

Jukan is right. Korea has seen some weakness recently. A certain Korean equity analyst has also expressed a cautious view, drawing much of his research from information in the Chinese market. This pattern has persisted for several quarters now — this quarter is certainly not the first time. This is largely because China’s inference demand has yet to take off, while the smartphone market there remains concentrated in lower-end models. However, you can also see that his US-based colleagues, the reports we have published, the detailed notes in our latest interview database, as well as surveys such as the most recent Cleveland Research survey, all indicate that the US has broadly accepted a new round of price increases, with the scope of the increases already negotiated and agreed upon. This has also made China's influence on pricing increasingly limited, and in reality it is not nearly as significant as this Korean equity analyst believes. The analyst says Americans are too bullish, but that's simply because the reality is exactly that. If China's inference market were to improve substantially, Chinese buyers would change their stance as well.

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

$TSEM is planning a $3B Japan expansion to boost 300mm silicon photonics, silicon germanium, and advanced packaging capacity. Japan will provide $1B in grants to support the project. First phase: repurpose the Arai facility and expand Fab 7 output, with production readiness expected in Q4 2027. Tower also updated its 2028 model to target $3.6B revenue and $1.2B net profit.

$IBM released preliminary Q2 results BELOW internal expectations as mainframe and software sales disappointed, with large deals failing to close on expected timelines. CEO: “This quarter we faltered.” Revenue: $17.2B vs $17.86B est. 🔴, up 1% YoY Software: +5% Consulting: flat, +1% cc Infrastructure: -7% Non-GAAP EPS: $2.93, up 5% YTD free cash flow: $4.8B CEO Arvind Krishna said: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.” He also said clients were distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns,” and that IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.” Full Q2 results are scheduled for July 22.

Earnings Season begins the week of July 13, 2026 $NFLX $UNH $C $GS $ASML $TSM $JPM $PGR $BAC $WFC $AEHR $CAG $BLK $RF $USB $GE $FAST $ABT $AA $UAL $TFC $MS $ISRG $JNJ $ERIC $AERO $ELV $FITB $ALV $PNC $STT $MTB $CTAS $ANGO $FBK $FHN $CFG $CNS $EQBK $FNB $HOVR $BNY $JBHT $HOMB $IIIN $SDVKY $TRV $SPFI $VLVLY $WIT

BREAKING: President Trump has formally notified US Congress that the US is at war with Iran, per Politico. Details include: 1. The move gives Trump another 60 days to use the military in the region without congressional approval 2. Trump said strikes that began on July 7th represent "military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and US interests both at home and abroad" 3. Trump also just said that he will "hit Iran hard" tonight amid mounting tensions The Iran War appears to be back again.

Hedge funds are piling into US semiconductor stocks: Last week, hedge funds purchased the most US semiconductor stocks in at least 3.5 years. This follows the 2 largest consecutive weekly sales since June 2024. As a result, semiconductor stocks now account for 10% of total hedge fund exposure. This percentage is twice as high as during the same period last year. However, this remains below the peak of 14% recorded in May. Hedge funds are betting the semiconductor selloff is already over.