"The addiction lawsuits — it's like, 'We're sorry that you think our app is addictive. We're going to work this out in the courts. But while we do that, we're going to introduce gambling.'" Jordi on Meta's reported prediction market plans: "[You're taking] Instagram — already one of the most addictive apps ever created — and adding casino functionality to it, so you're gambling with your friends." "I'm sure they wanted to keep this under wraps, and it's probably still an experiment, but it's not a very defensible move."

OUT NOW: @realTomBayes, @GerlacherC, @32Tumbles, and Quroe recap Manifest 2026, a prediction market conference from Berkeley While this was supposed to be about takeaways from talks, it ended up being mostly about various entertaining shenanigans from the weekend Link below 👇

State gaming law are a mismatch for PMs. State gambling laws "are ill-suited to regulating prediction markets because they do not concern themselves with fostering safe, fair markets at all. They do not address price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or market manipulation. Instead, state gambling laws largely seek to balance two countervailing goals: (1) restricting supposedly immoral behavior, and (2) promoting local economic development."

Normally the @CFTC has 5 commissioners (3 from President’s party, 2 opposition). Right now @ChairmanSelig is the only one, the rest are vacant. Filling more seats would likely hurt prediction markets & slow innovation. What should Trump do?

This is a key reason why we chose to use prediction markets in our forecast. In addition, not only are they calibrated and straight from the crowd, but they also respond markedly quicker than a fundamentals forecast, allowing our model to stay very agile.

And “letting a 14y/o go to a politics watch party” (or whatever the best term would be) where alcohol is served to other people, with a legal guardian” isn’t exactly the bleeding edge of the edgy youth-rights movement

Total nothingburger Kalshi does it, Robinhood does it, FanDuel and DraftKings does it. No one cares What are even the accusations ? - "Polymarket pays offshore clippers" Yes do you think they work for free ? Also not residing in the US is not a crime - "They paid Adin Ross $1M" Yes influencers do paid promotion, that's how they earn a living. - "The trades were fake" Yes it's an advertisement, add are not real, they represent the product. When you see an add for cough syrup where the guy drinks it and gets better it's also fake, the actor didn't actually have the flu (shocking). The scummy part is when these ads are not disclosed as such. If @polymarket handpicks these clippers they should vet them better to avoid dishonest ones but they would be far from the only ones to not do it, as you can see below

My initial thought was that this has a near 0% chance of success Then, I started thinking about how arguably the #1# competitive advantage for all of Kalshi, FD, and DK is access to a massive user base A @Meta acquisition of @PlayProphetX or @Novig would be quite interesting!

Kalshi, a $22 BILLION company, banned me from attending this meetup. A 14-year-old kid who runs a Substack about their industry. When a billion-dollar company blacklists a middle schooler doing podcasts, that just means they're scared of the @supercycleblog signal.

FTX is in the middle of a brutal bank run. John Ray files Chapter 11. Ten minutes later, the final funding commitment arrives — enough to cover the entire shortfall. The bankruptcy can’t be undone. Three years on: 98% of customers repaid in full, with 20% interest. The money was never stolen. It was temporarily illiquid during a bank run, the same condition that collapsed Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.