The Supercycle
@supercycleblog
The future of prediction market media. Created by @FlipPidot and @realTomBayes
86 Following 970 Followers
JUST IN: The Ninth Circuit ruled Kalshi can’t block Nevada from enforcing its gambling laws against sports prediction markets.
That’s a major appellate win for states—and another blow to the claim that CFTC oversight preempts state sports-betting rules.
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Announcement: we now have a telegram group for high-signal prediction market discussion!
It's called: Blocked by Dustin Gouker
To join, you must be blocked by Dustin, but we may give you a pass if you seem cool.
Current founding members include @realTomBayes, @FlipPidot, @MickBransfield and more.
DM!!!
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JUST IN: A federal judge in Montana denied Kalshi’s bid to block state enforcement against its sports contracts.
Another setback for the industry’s preemption argument: Kalshi is left without the injunction it sought in Montana.
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JUST IN: Canada just drew a hard line on prediction markets: sports and entertainment contracts don’t belong under securities or derivatives rules.
Its investment regulator also says it won’t facilitate or approve dealer applications to trade them.
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JUST IN: Connecticut sued Kalshi, calling its sports contracts illegal, unlicensed betting.
This is another direct test of the industry's core legal claim: federally regulated derivatives—or sports betting under a new label?
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Every state that sues Kalshi makes America just a little bit worse.
Back off our beautiful markets 📈🇺🇸🦅
The fight is moving beyond sports. States actively targeting political & election event contracts:
- Arizona (criminal charges)
- Minnesota (via legislation)
- Nevada
- New York
- Washington state
- Wisconsin (via state Election Commission)
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JUST IN: Kalshi disclosed .12B in fresh equity financing against a .5B offering. M remains open.
The capital race around prediction markets is no longer hypothetical—incumbent exchanges are now fighting over the same turf.
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JUST IN: Polymarket says it referred dozens of accounts showing potential military-insider trading to the DOJ after suspicious activity in war-related markets. Market integrity is becoming the industry's central regulatory test.
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We thank @MickBransfield and @ryanjmccomb for calling attention to our efforts. We are deeply committed to the effort of cultivating global awareness for our cause, and invite you to join us.
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Blessed are the killjoys, the fuddy-duddies, and the conspicuously outraged.
If it quacks like a duck, it's actually a federally regulated commodities exchange
Omg, it's their banner image too.
@endbackdoorbets, I don't know who your shadowy (apparently horribly funded) backers are, but the AI duck that looks like it was snapped by a phone off a laptop screen with this very stupid catch phrase is not it. Your clients deserve a refund.
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.@ChairmanSelig on The Supercycle:
"The choices we make will shape the markets and opportunities of the decades ahead"
INSANE LINEUP on The Supercycle today:
1pm: @realTomBayes and @BlondiePredicts
2pm: @FlipPidot joins
3pm: @TrevorFGillan joins
We'll be watching the inaugural meeting of the CFTC innovation advisory committee, a monumental step in establishing friendly prediction market regulation in the United States.
Link to stream:
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Watch it live tomorrow on
What once felt like the future is already part of the past. That’s the nature of innovation, and finance is no exception.
Tomorrow, we turn our attention to what comes next.🚀
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.@mattkalish come on the pod.
We'll talk about the tracker, life, love and whatever's on your mind.
Dustin Gouker says none of his work with Massachusetts Gaming Commission (a state gaming regulator suing Kalshi) "had anything to do with any court case."
Below is an email between Gouker and MGC discussing tracking prediction market litigation.
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.@JanCzarnocki: "[AI Agents] don't have eyes. They don't have ears. They don't feel reality."
Me: "They do have internet."
Latest episode of @supercycleblog
.@JanCzarnocki on the latest episode of the Supercycle:
"Kalshi and Polymarket seem reluctant to list contracts that would be relevant to the public interest in order for the US government to not lose edge in its wars or endeavors."
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BREAKING: Polymarket Intl. now under 10% of notional prediction market volume.
Just another reason we should be boycotting the NEXTPredict conference -- anything you say could be used against Kalshi in court.
Stop letting a casino company run our industry.
Attend Predict2026 this December:
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