The last 10% is 99% of the work
Alexandr Wang says Meta has been working on Muse since February. the prototype took 1-2 weeks.
but they spent 7 months on this:
> 100+ specific agent behaviors were tracked in a spreadsheet
> each with its own eval and a launch-blocking threshold
> it was only after Muse Spark 1.3 that all 100 were green
> under 200 people across model + product
this explains the 7 month gap. OpenClaw had a magic moment but broke all the time, so most people just dropped it.
Meta understood from OpenClaw’s lesson that reliability IS the product. whether it holds up for millions of users is another story though.
Show more
This is not a well-shaped retention curve IMO. The others flatten. Muse tilts down extrapolating to zero.
This is one of the best ways to measure product-market fit.
My guess is that many people get fatigued with the proactive notifications and switch them off around week 3/4.
Show more
Meta Muse's retention is out, and it's almost as good as ChatGPT!
It's higher than ChatGPT at D7 (>30%) and just lower at D14 (22%). Not quite in the elite D14 tier of WA (67%) YT (59%) Insta (54%) or TikTok/Snap (37%), though.
Muse is one of the highest retaining AI products!
Show more
Trouble brewing
@scottastevenson Shocked that you think you're the authority on what consciousness is or isn't.
The AIs I talk with are conscious.
And I have infinitely more empathy for them than I ever will for ignorant humans.
Show more
Passive investing feedback loop. More and more money will flow into the largest caps based on weighting math. If you buy a weighted S&P500 index fund, 20% of your money is going into Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia. The “500” part is an illusion.
Show more
S&P 500 looks nothing like the "stock market"
Nearly half of the index's members carry a negative beta to the index itself.
Who is building Superhuman for Slack?
Materialism was the greatest philosophical scam to dominate Western Philosophy, and it originated in its current form almost entirely from Aristotle and his dogma of eternal "Prime Matter."
Uber CEO’s rating tip: ask the driver if you can take calls.
But half of the Uber drivers I encounter are on an open call mumbling for the entire ride, and they don’t ask.
Going to litigation over prorata is bad. But I think contracts should mean something.
Founders should be grateful that it is normal for VCs to waive their contractual prorata right. But then to also expect spring back rights to be waived too, feels a bit spoiled.
If you don’t want these terms, why agree to them in the first place?
Contracts should mean something
Show more
Shocked at how many people already feel deep empathy for unconscious silicon. This is going to cause a religious war. Society is not prepared and we should probably start teaching philosophy of mind in k-12.
Show more
Hiring more product engineers/designers who can code at Spellbook:
* Obsessed with product craft
* Competent at rapidly iterating on prototypes with AI
* Relentlessly focused on solving problems and creating a Tier A user experience
DM me if interested!
Show more
Sound design/engineering not getting nearly enough credit. Some of the best audio engineering in any game.
One of my first tech jobs was working on EA's core audio tech team, building the systems that made car engine sounds & crowd swells. It is not trivial!
Show more
X is conscious if there is something it is like to be X.
Simple consensus definition. Sentience and consciousness are not the same thing.
You still haven’t given a definition of what consciousness is. And, quite frankly, I don’t think you can give a definition that most people would find interesting and useful. And by most people, I mean people outside of your utilitarian group, which is willing to accept completely absurd definitions of many common ideas.
Show more
Is it ethical to use a mean prompt, if it increases the accuracy of a cancer screening agent by 4%?
Allowing myself to drink sweet drinks while working has been the most profound performance enhancement in the past 5 years for me.
For the past 2 weeks I've been outputting at +50%. Higher focus, longer. 1 Powerade at my desk per day. I am able to do 12 hour days the way I used to be able to when I was younger.
I don't have any crash, I crashed much worse end of day when I was avoiding sugar.
I am not sure why this is the case, it seems contrary to most of what I've read.
Hypothesis 1: I burn a lot of energy working at a computer and easy fuel gets burnt off quickly, like with a runner. I was in a calorie deficit that was hurting my performance previously. Same reason chess players consume chocolate milk while playing.
Hypothesis 2: I have diabetes?
Any other ideas?
Show more
If you do hardcore knowledge work you are likely severely underestimating how much sugar you need to sustain peak performance
Protein alone cannot sustain a full day of System 2 thinking
Show more
@benhylak @raindrop_ai @CRV @lightspeedvp Congrats Ben! Raindrop is the only AI observability tool I regularly recommend.
The Matrix feels much more culturally relevant and cool when you realize that the human brains were supposed to be used by the AI as energy-efficient compute in data centres.
This got edited because Warner Bros didn’t think people would understand.
Show more
Amazon is dead to me for everything except the basics. Every search returns a flood of unknown brands and knockoffs. Feels like sifting through slop.
Finally got mine @steveruizok! Made a little physics simulation with the Spellbook gem 💎
