victorji 🔶
@victorone111
🇨🇳🇩🇰🇮🇱🇺🇸🇸🇬@Kennedy_School MPA, Core contributor of the first modular L2 @mantanetwork, hiring! From TJC
4.9K Following 26.6K Followers
How accurate is Yarrow during earnings season?
At the end of our last video, we looked at 4 earnings predictions where Yarrow disagreed with the market.
The result? 2.5 out of 3 correct. 👀
Over the next two weeks of earnings, most of our predictions aligned with market consensus.
But we still identified several companies where our forecasts diverged from the market
including $HPQ , $NVDA , $DELL , and $AMAT
Curious about the actual numbers and how our predictions played out?
Watch the video below 👇
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We published predictions on 11 companies over the past week. Here's every call, right and wrong.
Part 1: EPS predictions with Polymarket contracts
We made directional calls (beat/miss) on 7 companies where Polymarket had active contracts.
6 out of 7 correct.
Cumulative Brier score: Yarrow 0.09, Polymarket 0.19.
Two misses to be transparent about:
AAPL: We called it a coin flip (50%). It beat. Our logic was sound — Apple's guidance is precise, and the $2.02 threshold was above consensus. What we missed: a $0.05 one-time tariff refund. Without it, EPS would have been $2.05 — barely clearing. We stand by the reasoning, but the market was closer.
QCOM: We gave 68% beat. It missed by $0.03. Close call. Our guidance risk flag (65% chance of weak guidance) did validate — Q1 midpoint $2.25 came in below the $2.29 Street expected, stock dropped 5-7% after hours.
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Why u can always trust @binance 🫡🔶
Yi He, Binance's co-founder and co-ceo, was at home in Abu Dhabi when she first noticed something wrong. She, months into her pregnancy, had logged off work and was scrolling through X before going to bed around 12:30 a.m. in Abu Dhabi, 4:30 p.m. in New York.
Soon, she and hundreds of Binance employees would stay up all night dealing with the biggest crypto hack in history.
More details behind the scene from our great team work @business
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We are aware of the reported security incident involving Binance and are monitoring the situation closely.
Our review shows that the affected addresses do not hold any MANTA tokens. Manta Network is operating normally.
We will continue to monitor developments and will share updates if anything changes.
Our thoughts are with the @binance team. We are confident they will get through this, and we stand ready to support them in any way we can!
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Binance's initial investigation suggests that the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak. We will share a detailed technical post-mortem once the investigation is complete and the facts are fully verified.
The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3B. We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with ~$3 billion frozen on-chain so far.
Binance will cover all losses from the SAFU fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe. We will also publish an updated Proof of Reserves once the remediation is complete.
As an immediate precaution, Binance has:
- temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while security checks are completed;
- revoked the affected address authorisation;
- engaged law enforcement and blockchain intelligence partners to trace and recover funds.
Our teams are working around the clock to resolve this issue safely and thoroughly. We are working closely with our law enforcement partners to confirm the identity of these criminals and bring them to justice.
Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates. Please feel free to contact Binance Customer Support if you have any further questions.
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We’re thrilled to announce our investment in @hyperbolic_labs .
AI is turning compute into the most important resource of the decade. Demand from training, inference and agents keeps compounding, but supply is fragmented: GPUs sit across dozens of neoclouds and data centers, often underutilized.
Hyperbolic aggregates that capacity into a single Global Compute Grid. Teams can access, orchestrate and even resell H100s, H200s and B200s on demand, and providers can put idle capacity to work. 250K+ developers and teams already build on it.
We believe the platform that makes compute liquid will become core infrastructure for the AI economy.
Congrats to the Hyperbolic team!
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HSBC retained $INTC $200 target price
Intel's server CPU recovery may be powerful enough to drive earnings higher before the external Foundry story fully arrives.
Meanwhile, EMIB-T could start monetizing Foundry earlier than investors expect.
Advanced packaging is Intel’s new gold mine $INTC
Tesla. SpaceX. Google. Apple. Microsoft. Amazon. NVIDIA. Broadcom. AMD.
The list is getting longer and longer.
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Congrats!
We are thrilled to announce our $8M Series A to connect regulated markets to onchain finance.
Predicate enables digital assets to reach every market compliantly. We do this by embedding compliance controls directly into digital assets to block high-risk and sanctioned activity at every transaction.
To date, Predicate has:
- Screened $1B+ in transaction volume
- Evaluated 6M+ transactions against custom compliance policies
- Blocked 100K+ non-compliant transactions
The round was led by @bcap with participation from @Paxos, @1kxnetwork and @tribecap.
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Yesterday Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia — one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Targets included the St. Petersburg oil export terminal, a VK data center, and an Ozon logistics center. Fires confirmed.
This happened 8 days after Trump declared an "energy ceasefire."
Open YarrowPulse right now:
→ Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement: 18 updates in 24 hours, 20 related prediction markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥
→ Russia–Ukraine Territorial Control: 12 updates in 24 hours, 70 related markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥
The ceasefire topic is surging with updates. But here's the point: 1,000 drones hitting oil infrastructure doesn't look like a ceasefire. And the prediction markets know it — the ceasefire contract hasn't moved up.
Meanwhile, this attack adds upward pressure on oil. Brent hit $110 on Friday. Ukraine is now systematically targeting Russian energy exports — and that feeds directly into the next CPI print.
Geopolitics → energy → inflation → Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks it all.
☘️
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Panel 03 · Investing in Agent Startups
Moderated by our Yuchen Liu with @Wuhuoqiu, @mariochow98k (@IOSGVC), @thatdegenvc (@archetypevc) and Victor Ji (@marine_vc)
Not one of the four investors is betting on the model.
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One more tennis 🎾 event tmr:
2049出勤率最高的活动了，两天拉了100人多群，24个位置报满来了19个。带了一堆周边都是币安的，感谢大家支持，明天还会再组一个！The most attended event in Token 2049, 100+ participants in WeChat group and 19/24 signed up joining our tennis event! Thanks for everyone coming and contributing to the community. We will host another one tmr!
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See you tmr! Healthy life, away from toxic environment.
See you tmr! Healthy life, away from toxic environment.
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If you connect an agent, it uses your own API keys (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.). Cost: fractions of a cent per match.
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