Inspired by Brett's and others' commentary lately, I put my old equity research hat on (I was on a top II-ranked team at Evercore) and built a financial model for a packaged food company I know extremely well... using all of my best practices, knowledge, and dream wish list features. The process took about 4 hours. 2-3 hours of that was Opus 5.5 grinding out compute. I burned a noticeable chunk of my AI usage credits in the process. It is an absolute machine. A work of art. It's literally the greatest financial model I have ever seen. Highly unlikely, dare I say zero chance, that anyone on Wall Street -- sell side or buy side -- possessed such a model on this company three years ago. I suspect many on Wall Street have this now.. or at least are able to create it if they shared my same knowhow and experience... or perhaps they can't as they are internally constrained.. I don't know. Then I documented my workflow in detail, and created models for two additional names... adding new learnings and nuances to the workflow as they're encountered. Now I have an army of agents building a coverage universe worth of models based on my detailed instructions. I can quite literally... within 3-4 weeks build an automated equity research platform with technical resources (i.e. models, data repositories, analytical tools, etc) that would dwarf anything that existed on the sell-side when I was there. And it's such an exciting concept that... I just might!

I am not joking when I say this. Spotify, Apple Music, and streaming in general is over. AI music is now very, very good. You just don't know yet because all AI music circulating today is from ~2-3 generations ago. Suno v6 pro et al has solved infinite personalized music.

If you've left your W2 in the past few years, is there anything you miss about W2 life? If you're still planning to leave, you should watch what people say here. ETA/entrepreneurship may be enticing but it's a roller-coaster ride. Make sure you know what you're getting into before you jump.

“We’re going to buy businesses and implement AI.” Guys, with the exception of maybe a handful of people or firms, I’m not sure many people have a better front-row seat to the small and lower-middle-market acquisition ecosystem than we do. We take 200+ calls every month from prospective buyers, searchers, independent sponsors, family offices and private equity funds. And that doesn’t include the orders of magnitude more conversations we see through communities, group chats, conferences and the hundreds of transactions that move through our firm. Based on our own deal volume and what we see in the market, we believe we’re among the most active law firms serving the lower-middle-market M&A ecosystem in the country. And I can tell you: “We’re going to buy businesses and implement AI” is EVERYONE’S thesis right now. Greg’s piece is thought-provoking, and I think his broader point is right: everyone buying or operating a business should be thinking seriously about how AI can be layered into the company to improve productivity, reduce costs and expand margins. That is absolutely where things are going. And damn it, it’s a GOOD thesis. I say “good,” not “great,” because there is a huge assumption buried inside it: That you actually get to the part where you can focus on growth and AI implementation. The acquisition lifecycle usually looks something like: 1. Acquire 2. Stabilize 3. Grow 4. Exit AI implementation is largely part of Step 3... Growth. But before you get to Step 3, you have to survive Step 2. And Step 2 is where things get real. > You inherit employees you didn’t hire. > Customers you didn’t acquire. > Vendors you didn’t negotiate with. > Processes you didn’t design. > Technology you didn’t choose. > Financial statements you didn’t prepare. > A culture you didn’t create. And often years of institutional knowledge sitting inside the head of a seller who just got wired a life-changing amount of money and is mentally halfway to the beach. Meanwhile, the debt payment is due every month. A lot of acquirers get stuck somewhere between Stabilize and Grow for years. > They fix people problems. > They replace customers. > They rebuild accounting. > They improve working capital. > They learn the industry. They deal with equipment breaking, key employees quitting, sellers behaving strangely, unexpected capex and a thousand other things that never appeared in the CIM. They put out near CONSTANT fires. They service the debt. They hold on for dear life. They may still create seven figures of wealth... But they never really reach the clean, optimized growth phase they imagined when they built the model. That’s why I think assuming you can simply acquire a business and quickly increase EBITDA margins by the magnitude Greg is describing will be wishful thinking in most cases. Not because he’s wrong about the opportunity. He isn’t. AI can absolutely improve margins. It can reduce administrative labor, improve sales processes, accelerate quoting, enhance customer service, automate workflows and create enormous operating leverage. Everyone should be thinking about how to use it. But growth requires stability, management bandwidth, good systems, clean data and capital. AI is a tool. It is not a substitute for competent operations. You still have to buy the right company. At the right price. With the right capital structure. You still have to retain the right people. Protect the customer base. Understand working capital. Manage cash. Navigate the transition. And actually operate the thing. So if you’re considering acquiring a lower-middle-market business, do your homework, hire good advisors and go in with your eyes wide open. Greg is right that AI creates a massive opportunity for business owners and acquirers. But the hard part is still getting the business into a position where you can actually capture it. This is hard as FUCK. And AI didn’t make that part any easier.

Today is the day that AI passed the "financial modeling Turing test" for me. A "push button" build from scratch Skill that one-shotted a model on $MU that is indistinguishable (to me) from a model that a junior analyst would build from scratch. With full, impeccable adherence to all aspects of who i like to format, design & build models (took a few turns to dial it in). Opus 5.5 is unbelievable.

Warning to IQ 130+ ambitious young men: One of the great ironies of life is that, the kind of man that can reach his goals is the same that finds it hard to enjoy the fruits of his labor. I already hit my major targets in life: - children with a top-notch woman - financial freedom - work I enjoy - first-rate friends - excellent health - a lovely home in a place I like - travel the world in comfort But the man I had to become to get those things, is one who - constantly asks what’s next - feels uncomfortable idling - feels guilty when not productive For 15 years I trained my prefrontal cortex to live in the future. And while there is always room for growth, all my gains from here on out will be marginal. My present is the future I was planning in the past. Well, now I am here and I am STILL living in the future. That’s a problem because, in the future, I will look back at today with nostalgia. My children will move out, and I will age. Things will go wrong. I will lose people I can never get back. The minor problems I have today will seem inconsequential in comparison. And I would hate to reach that point and think I didn’t fully enjoy this period while I was actually living through it. So learn how to recognize peak existence. Sacrificing today for tomorrow only makes sense when your best days are still ahead of you. If you’re living through your best days right now, you need to work on rewiring your brain for present-maxxing. Easier said than done. Take it from me.

Some reflections from 3 years out of formal employment - surprisingly lonely for unexpected reasons. Most friends still employed at high stress jobs so I have nobody to hang out or holiday with because they don’t have the time flexibility I do - slowly lost touch with office politics, unemployment anxiety, comp or high personal taxes which are perpetual topics of debate in those circles. Nice but also makes it harder to relate to those friends and what they are going through - I get so much more time with kids - will sound weird but I find it’s less stressful than having a job - there were easier phases and harder phases but by and large I grinded so much harder when working for other ppl in my 20s. It is possible that my path so far has been easier or that my prior job history more gruesome than most but the first few years have been mentally and energy wise easier than eg my job in finance - on that note.. with recent hires and complete outsourcing of fulfilment I just feel like my job is to eat the sh*tsoup when it gets cooked and come up with ways we can grow… maybe public markets prepare you super well for the sh*tsoup part.. because even if things are sh*t at least you have some control to change them 🤷‍♀️ so mental health actually better today than 3 yrs ago -perhaps most unexpectedly your circle slowly starts turning over to other business owners both large and small. Eg feels like I have more to talk about with someone running a large fam conglomerate or an indie artist than a former colleague. Weird because the shared history or lack thereof doesn’t seem to matter.. mindset is everything and it puts out an aura that other ppl pick up on if you will -overall the best way to describe it is that I am less anxious and more paranoid . And honestly, at least so far I prefer it that way