华尔街日报：英伟达与 OpenAI 洽谈，为数据中心提供 2500 亿美元融资担保 英伟达的担保将帮助 ChatGPT 开发商租赁一个 10 吉瓦的项目，该项目由软银（94340.96%）旗下能源子公司正在俄亥俄州南部开发。项目总成本可能超过 5000 亿美元，其中包括数据中心内部署的芯片。这将是迄今为止宣布的最大规模数据中心项目。 2500 亿美元的担保将覆盖数据中心建设和运营所需的租赁及债务成本，但不包括其中的英伟达芯片。据知情人士透露，已向 OpenAI 投资 300 亿美元的英伟达，正就为 OpenAI 提供芯片采购融资进行谈判，这笔交易总额可能高达 3500 亿美元。

China's full memory chip supply chain: CXMT & YMTC are the main players here, but it supports a huge list of Fab equipment, cleaning producers + Semi material & chemicals + local components As well as HBM related chain, OSAT, controllers, OEMs, modules, desingers & distribution Memory chip is the main bottleneck of AI industry now. Everything will be expected to run larger & larger models in the future, so this supply chain will be expected to continue to grow really quickly.

J.P. Morgan: AI Server Market "The AI Server market is estimated to expand to $356bn in 2026 from $195 bn in 2025, implying +83% y/y growth, while the long-term CAGR from 2026 through 2030 is expected to track at +37%. With respect to customer types, Hyperscalers are expected to track to a CAGR of +28% from 2026 through 2030, while Enterprise and Rest of Cloud are expected to drive faster growth at +47% and +49% CAGRs, respectively, over the same period." AI Server Market Growth > Rapid Expansion: The total AI server market is projected to skyrocket from $14.7 billion in 2022 to $1.24 trillion by 2030. > Hyperscale Dominance: Hyperscalers are driving the vast majority of the demand, growing from $8.09 billion in 2022 to an estimated $611.6 billion in 2030. > Massive Peak Growth: The market saw its highest year-over-year percentage growth in 2024 at 211%, with steady, strong growth projected through the rest of the decade. Total Server Market Share > Nvidia's Surge: Nvidia's total market share expanded significantly from 18% in 2023 to 33% in 2025. > Competitor Stability: Major hardware vendors like Dell and Super Micro maintained or moderately increased their standing, with Dell holding 14% and Super Micro at 9% by 2025. AI Server Market Share by Vendor > Nvidia Leadership: Nvidia maintains dominance in dedicated AI servers, commanding 47% of the market in 2025 (down slightly from a peak of 58% in 2024 due to rising competition). > Gaining Competitors: Dell and Super Micro are prominent players in the AI server space, each holding an 11% market share as of 2025.

Samsung Electronics and Broadcom signed an MOU covering more than $200 billion of potential cooperation through 2030 across memory, foundry and advanced packaging. The foundry collaboration covers Samsung’s 2nm-and-below processes for Broadcom products, including Wireless Broadband Communications solutions, as well as 2.3D and 2.5D advanced packaging. Samsung will also pursue HBM supply cooperation for Broadcom’s next-generation AI accelerators. The $200 billion figure is not a confirmed foundry order. It represents an estimated five-year collaboration across both memory and foundry, and the agreement is currently an MOU. --> This is clearly positive for Samsung Foundry. Securing Broadcom as a long-term partner could improve leading-edge utilization, validate Samsung’s sub-2nm process and packaging capabilities, and make it easier to attract additional AI and networking customers. At the same time, however, it should not be interpreted as a confirmed $200 billion foundry contract. The announced foundry scope explicitly includes communications and networking products such as WBC solutions, while production of Broadcom’s core custom AI accelerator compute dies at Samsung has not yet been confirmed. For now, this is a strong strategic signal imo, and the decisive catalysts will be binding purchase commitments, tape-outs, production timelines and recognized revenue, etc...

Can AMD break the CUDA Moat? AMD Advancing AI 2026, Up to 105% Equity Rebate Discounts for OpenAI, Agentic Kernel Generation, Improvement in Software Quality, Unstable Internal Development Clusters, Helios MI455X Production Ramp Hell

BofA on $INTC (Buy, $160 PT): “Intel’s Q2 beat/raise earnings call reconfirms the two pillars of our Buy thesis: 1) External manufacturing (foundry) customer discussions have reached a more tangible stage, leading to capex boost (positive semicaps), and 2) INTC’s core server CPU business is strongly participating in the ongoing agentic cycle, with data center sales surging 59% YoY, INTC’s best growth rate in the past 15 years. We reiterate Buy and continue to view INTC’s US-based leading-edge capacity and strong backing by the White House as long-term competitive moats. Risk-wise we must watch for any capital market action to fund the capex, though we note INTC has other levers re non-core asset disposals, plus potential customer prepayments as alternatives.”

$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

ALPHABET $GOOGL Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $119.8B (Est. $116.8B-$117.2B) 🟢; +24% YoY 🔹 Cloud: +82% YoY (Est. +63%-+67%) 🟢 🔹 Search & Other: +17% YoY (Est. +17%) 🟡 🔹 YouTube Ads: +13% YoY (Est. +10%) 🟢 🔹 CapEx: $44.9B (Est. $45.1B) 🟡 Google Services: 🔹 Revenue: $94.5B (Est. $94.3B) 🟡; +15% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $39.5B 🔹 Google Advertising: $81.6B 🔹 Search & Other: $63.3B (Est. $63.3B-$63.5B) 🟡; +17% YoY 🔹 YouTube Ads: $11.1B (Est. $10.76B) 🟢; +13% YoY 🔹 Google Network: $7.3B 🔹 Subscriptions, Platforms & Devices: $12.9B; +15% YoY Google Cloud: 🔹 Revenue: $24.8B (Est. $22.2B-$22.8B) 🟢; +82% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $8.8B Other Bets: 🔹 Revenue: $382M 🔹 Operating Loss: -$1.8B Alphabet-Level Activities: 🔹 Operating Loss: -$5.8B 🔸 Primarily reflects expenses related to shared AI research and development Other Metrics: 🔹 EPS: $9.11; includes $6.26 benefit from net unrealized gains on equity securities; +294% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $40.8B (Est. $40.4B) 🟢; +30% YoY 🔹 Total TAC: $16.2B 🔹 Employees: 198,933 🔹 Gemini API Tokens/Minute: 22 billion 🔹 Gemini App MAUs: 950 million 🔹 Hedging Gains/Losses: $106M Geographic Revenue: 🔹 U.S. 🇺🇸: $60.8B; +32% YoY 🔹 EMEA 🇪🇺: $32.5B; +15% YoY 🔹 APAC: $19.3B; +17% YoY 🔹 Other Americas: $7.0B; +23% YoY Financials: 🔹 Operating Margin: 34% 🔹 Net Income: $112.1B; +298% YoY 🔹 Other Income, Net: $98.0B 🔹 Gain on Equity Securities, Net: $99.0B 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $39.1B (Est. $46.04B) 🔴 🔹 Free Cash Flow: -$5.9B (Est. -$90M) 🔴 🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $53.3B 🔹 Cash & Marketable Securities: $242.5B 🔹 Long-Term Debt: $98.2B Capital Return: 🔹 Dividend: $0.22/share 🔹 Dividend Payable: September 14, 2026 🔹 Stock Repurchases: $0 CEO Sundar Pichai Commentary: 🔸 “Our AI investments are redefining what’s possible across every part of our business.” 🔸 “Q2 was an amazing quarter, with Alphabet revenues growing 24% year-over-year and Google Cloud revenues accelerating to 82% growth, driven by demand for AI infrastructure and AI solutions.” 🔸 “It’s great to see wide adoption of Gemini Enterprise, with nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 using it.” 🔸 “Gemini models now process 22 billion API tokens per minute and the Gemini App has 950 million monthly active users.” 🔸 “We are seeing strong demand for our security solutions, and our new Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber delivers highly cost-efficient performance at the frontier.” 🔸 “These outstanding results show that our differentiated, full stack approach to AI is delivering real, measurable value for consumers, customers, and our partners globally.”

Holy: China now has a 1-gigawatt AI data center built without a single Nvidia chip! Via Bloomberg: zAI has reportedly completed construction of the facility and begun partial operations. It runs exclusively on Chinese-made chips and will support the development of the company’s frontier GLM models. zAI has also built or operates several computing clusters containing more than 10,000 chips each. This is far more significant than the next Frontier model. The importance of chip independence from the USA can hardly be overstated.

$FSLR $NXT Chinese solar and battery stocks rose after Beijing introduced a new consumption tax, as investors bet the added cost will accelerate consolidation in oversupplied industries. The tax starts at 2% and later doubles to 4%, with larger players like CATL better positioned to absorb or pass on the cost than smaller rivals.

FOXCONN HAS BROKEN DELL AND SUPERMICRO’S DUOPOLY BY WINNING ITS FIRST CONTRACT TO MANUFACTURE SPACEX’S NEXT-GENERATION AI SERVERS POWERED BY NVIDIA’S GB300. - The project is reportedly worth approximately $52 billion, making it a massive deal. - This order was not included in the company’s existing revenue guidance, suggesting that Hon Hai’s AI business momentum could be far stronger than previously expected. Combined with strong results from its subsidiary FII, expectations for Hon Hai’s second-half performance have risen significantly.

Marvell wants to almost triple its revenue in three years and its plan to get there might make today's stock price look like a steal (Save this). Marvell's revenue climbed from $2.3 billion in FY17 to $8.7 billion in the trailing twelve months. Analysts now project it will nearly triple again to $11.5 billion by FY27, $16.7 billion by FY28, and $23.3 billion by FY29. That growth curve has already shown up in results. Q1 FY27 revenue hit a record $2.42 billion, with data center revenue growing 38% year over year and management raising its forecast for next year's data center growth above prior expectations. Marvell's growth plan rests on straddling both halves of the AI infrastructure buildout rather than picking one lane. On the compute side, Marvell designs custom AI silicon for hyperscalers, currently working across more than 50 custom design opportunities spanning over 10 customers, with three nanometer wafer capacity already locked in to support that pipeline. This includes chips built specifically for companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google that want AI accelerators tailored to their own workloads instead of buying off the shelf GPUs. On the data movement side, Marvell sells the switching, electrooptics and high speed interconnect silicon that moves data between those chips and across data center racks. Marvell projects the critical interconnect market alone will hit $14 billion by 2028 at a 27% annual growth rate. Layered on top of that is the CXL memory expansion business, where Marvell's Structera controllers and switches sit at the center of a market Morgan Stanley now projects will more than double and triple by 2030. Data center revenue already makes up roughly 76% of Marvell's total sales. That means the plan to reach $23 billion in revenue is really a bet that AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding across compute, connectivity, and memory all at once. Marvell trades at a forward P/E of roughly 42 and a market cap around $166 billion. That sounds rich until you compare it to the growth rate behind it, since revenue is projected to nearly triple in three years, meaning the multiple compresses fast if the company executes even close to plan. With that being said, customer concentration risk is real since Marvell depends heavily on a handful of hyperscaler relationships and the stock has shown it can swing 10% in a day on competitive headlines, like the ByteDance in-house ASIC scare in June. But with data center demand still accelerating, a tripling revenue base already baked into consensus estimates,and a valuation that hasn't fully caught up to that growth path, the setup favors Marvell closing that gap rather than the growth story stalling out. I remain extremely bullish on Marvell, follow me @MelvinInvests for more infrastructure plays and check out the link below for more!

Mizuho Securities: CPUs & GPUs Market Forecasts & Growth > Shipment Growth: Industry server CPU shipments are forecasted to reach 35 million units in 2026 and grow to 50 million units by 2027, representing a 40% year-over-year increase. > Long-Term TAM: The long-term Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimate for 2030 has been raised to $170 billion (up from the previous $107 billion forecast), driven by higher CPU-to-GPU ratio assumptions for AI inference servers. > CPU-to-GPU Ratios: The CPU-to-GPU ratio on AI servers is accelerating and is expected to approach 1:1 by the end of 2027 or 2028. Supply Chain & Technical Bottlenecks > DRAM Constraints: A critical bottleneck exists in DDR5/LPDDR5 supply, with a projected fulfillment ratio of only 70% over the next 12–18 months. > Demand vs. Supply Gap: Based on current models, the 2027 demand for DDR5/LPDDR5X (over 300 billion 1Gb equivalents) significantly exceeds the projected supply (220–250 billion 1Gb equivalents). > Potential Risks: The shortage of key materials—DRAM, substrates, and passives—is expected to persist through 2027 and could pose downside risks to downstream server assemblers, potentially leading to lower server rack output. Key Player Insights (2027 Forecasts) > Nvidia: Expected to reach 5.0–6.0 million units for the Vera CPU, including 2.0–3.0 million units specifically for agentic AI stack racks. > Google: Axion CPU production is projected to increase more than 2x year-over-year, aligning with the growth trajectory of TPU units. > AMD: The N2 Venice CPU is forecasted to exceed 6.0 million units. GPUs/ASICs Market Growth Projections > Rapid Expansion: The total AI ASIC market is projected to grow from 4.1 million units in 2025 to 24.0 million units by 2028. > Volume Drivers: The growth is driven by substantial increases in deployment by major hyperscalers including Google, Amazon (Annapurna), Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. > External Demand: The market for external (non-Google) AI ASIC units is expected to surge from 0.6 million in 2025 to 7.2 million by 2028. Key Hyperscaler Activity > Google (TPU): Continues to be a dominant player, with total shipment units increasing from 2.5 million in 2025 to 7.1 million by 2028. > Anthropic: Significant ramp-up is forecasted for their "TPU Ironwood/Sunfish" chips, moving from 0.6 million units in 2026 to 6.2 million units by 2028. > Amazon/Annapurna: Shipments for the Trainium line are projected to double from 1.5 million in 2025 to 3.6 million by 2028. > Meta: Rapid scaling of MTIA chips is expected, growing from 0.1 million units in 2025 to 2.7 million units by 2028. Technical Trends > Advanced Packaging & Nodes: There is a heavy reliance on sophisticated packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and CoWoS-S, and advanced foundry nodes including N2, N3, N4, N5, and A16. > HBM Integration: Nearly all listed high-performance ASICs utilize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with a transition toward newer generations such as HBM3E and HBM4/4E to meet performance demands. > ASP Variance: Average Selling Prices (ASP) range significantly, from approximately $2,000 for entry-level models to as high as $40,000 for top-tier specialized chips like the TPUv10. $DRAM $EWY $MU $GOOGL $AMKR $TSM $ASE $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $INTC $MSFT $META