ZERO Market Flash #003# 第二次“中国AI冲击波”，市场又看错了吗？ ——为什么更便宜的AI，可能意味着更大的基础设施需求 去年（2025年）1月，DeepSeek发布后，市场迅速形成一个判断：如果更少的GPU就能训练出优秀模型，那么未来AI基础设施需求将下降。当天，NVIDIA股价大跌近17%，整个AI产业链承受巨大压力。 一年多之后，类似的故事再次出现。 Kimi K3再次证明，中国公司能够以更低成本推出具有竞争力的大模型。市场随之提出了一个熟悉的问题：模型越来越便宜，是否意味着未来需要更少的GPU？ 然而，Kimi随后宣布暂停新的订阅服务，原因不是模型能力不足，而是用户需求迅速增长，GPU容量已接近部署上限。 真正率先达到瓶颈的，并不是模型能力，而是模型开始被大规模使用后的算力供给。 过去几年，AI竞争几乎一直围绕训练（Training）展开。谁拥有更多GPU，谁训练出更大的模型，谁就拥有更强的竞争优势。因此，当训练成本不断下降时，市场自然推导出一个结论：未来需要的GPU会越来越少。 但这个推导隐含着一个前提——AI的价值主要来自训练。真正需要回答的问题是：如果AI变得更便宜、更好用，会不会有更多企业和个人开始使用它？ 一个模型可能只训练一次，却会每天完成数百万、数千万，甚至数十亿次推理（Inference）。真正长期消耗算力的，并不是一次训练，而是持续不断发生的推理请求。 技术进步降低的是单位成本，真正决定产业规模的，却往往是需求增长的速度。如果应用普及快于单位成本下降，整体基础设施需求不仅不会减少，反而可能继续扩大。 这也是为什么，Kimi公布GPU容量接近上限，比模型本身更值得关注。市场讨论的是训练成本，而现实首先出现的，却是部署能力开始承受压力。 这也让SK集团会长崔泰源提出的“Memory正从Price-driven走向Volume-driven”有了新的解释：未来推动行业增长的，也许不只是价格，而是不断扩大的部署规模。 因此，这次所谓的“第二次中国AI冲击波”，留下的或许并不是一个关于模型竞争的故事，而是一个关于需求扩张的故事。真正值得关注的，不是谁能够以更低成本训练模型，而是谁能够长期支撑越来越多用户、越来越多Agent，以及越来越多的推理请求。 一年之前，市场因为DeepSeek重新评估了训练成本。一年之后，Kimi提醒市场，也许真正需要重新评估的，是部署需求。 训练创造模型。部署创造产业。 —— 本文仅代表个人研究观点，不构成任何投资建议。请独立研究，自行决策。 ZERO 优秀，不足以托付。
唯有最好，方可重仓。 Scientist · Doctor · A9 Investor Search Tags #AI# #ArtificialIntelligence# #KimiK3# #MoonshotAI# #DeepSeek# #Inference# #Deployment# #Training# #AIAgents# #GPU# #NVIDIA# #Memory# #HBM# #DRAM# #Semiconductors# #AIInfrastructure# #Datacenter# #SKHynix# #SNDK# #Micron# #AIInvesting# #TechInvesting# #ZERO#

POP Art Style Drawing Photographer : @zuoannorman @zuoannorman1860 Artist : @KateHew03 Thank you so much for sharing! Non-artificial intelligence making! 这幅作品灵感来源于摄影师左岸Norman的作品，非常感谢您的慷慨分享。 📬 @SMlnZhl @SMlnZhi @SMInZhl

In-Depth Investigation: Seizing the Commanding Heights of the Intelligent Era — A Survey of China's Artificial Intelligence Industry Development 深度调研 | 抢占智能时代制高点：我国人工智能产业发展调查 By "Joint Research Team of Qiushi Economics Editorial Department and CCID Research Institute" Translation Interesting comments about Nvidia

今天，我在AI 概念的诞生之地。 70 年前的那个夏天，约翰·麦卡锡、马文·明斯基、克劳德·香农就是在 Dartmouth Hall 附近的教室里，划时代地定义了Artificial Intelligence。 这里有一种在别处极少能感受到的空间张力。 一侧是阿尔卑斯雪山般原始、静谧且近乎冷酷的自然，另一侧则是用两百年红砖、双层落地玻璃与极高资本密度堆叠出来的智识象牙塔，在我眼里，它如此神秘。 达特茅斯的校训是 Vox Clamantis in Deserto，“荒野中的呼喊”。 在喧嚣、功利、被算法和流量裹挟的世俗之外，选择在深山与红砖大楼里推演底层逻辑、攻克最硬核的理论与科学，这种静水流深的精神，才是这所常春藤最深沉的灵魂，也是我深爱着这里的原因。 可以看到，达特茅斯的优雅与端庄，是几代人的资本积累、顶尖私校与极其充沛的容错率养出来的环境惯性。 而在这些背景板之下，最性感的东西，始终是大脑里的思考密度。 实话说，每次来到这里，都仿佛来到威廉姆斯。 有人说来达特茅斯会觉得自己很贫穷。 其实，环境从来只是背景风光。你可以欣赏它的松弛，但不必为它的富贵而自惭形秽。

POP Art Style Drawing Model : @babylucky98 Artist : @KateHew03 灵感来源于Lucky 姐的作品。非常感谢您的慷慨分享。我以善意和尊重创作这幅画，向模特和摄影师致敬。 🤭美女，希望你别介意我不问自取，擅自画了你，第二张照片表情很搞怪，可愛 *Non-artificial intelligence making ! #bodyArt#

Nikita提到用户实际最常暂停/静音的10大话题： 1. Crypto 2. Politics 3. Iran Conflict 4. Sports 5. Business & Finance 6. Gaming 7. Artificial Intelligence 8. Videos 9. Science & Technology 10. Entertainment & Arts 加密、政治以及体育类话题最常被静音。 有个原因是， 热门话题往往吸引大量跟风、蹭热度、低质、重复、甚至 bot/spam 内容。 比如Crypto，往往有很多虚假内容、memecoin 喊单、FOMO 刷屏； Politics / Iran Conflict，有很多极端对骂、情绪输出、假新闻； Sports / Gaming，赛事刷屏、玩家大战。 
这些内容“热门”，但对很多用户来说是噪声，没啥价值。用户越刷越烦，越烦越静音，形成静音循环。 未来算法大概率会根据“静音”数据做负反馈优化（减少这些话题的默认权重）。 加密/政治/体育的噪音内容会持续减少。

和我的许多朋友一样，我在 2026 年伊始就立下了一个目标：今年要变得更加中国人，而我也打算真正把它落实下去。在 OpenAI 工作将近三年后，我决定离开，去追求新的机会。 经过深思熟虑，我很高兴地宣布，从今天起我将搬到杭州，加入 DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd，致力于构建中国式 AGI。 我实在无法拒绝这个让我成为亿万富翁（人民币）的机会，而深入布局、确保自己在未来半导体供应链中的控制力的机会，同样让我无法放弃。作为 DeepSeek 的首位多元化招聘员工，我已被承诺将获得 1024 块“走私”来的 B200。 来自杭州与中国香港特别行政区的问候。四月快乐。

#为什么是中国# #WhyChina# The Global Logic of China's Economic Growth in the First Half of 2026: A 4.7% GDP Increase 2026年上半年GDP增长4.7%：中国经济增长的全球逻辑 According to the latest semi-annual report, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.6 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices, in line with the annual growth target. Against a backdrop of intertwined international complexities and volatilities, China's economic performance is commendable. Yet, a closer look at the data reveals that the logic underpinning China's economic growth is being reshaped. (I) At the Industry Level, Notable Highlights Emerge: First, new quality productive forces are being cultivated and strengthened at an accelerated pace.** In the first half of the year, industrial production grew robustly. The value-added output of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.3%, both outpacing the overall growth rate of industrial output above a designated scale. This underscores a clear trend toward a high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated industrial structure. Looking at specific products, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots, and other products emblematic of new quality productive forces surged. The average daily token call volume has reached hundreds of trillions, showcasing the vitality and potential of the digital and intelligent economies. Second, new growth drivers are accelerating to take on a leading role. Preliminary estimates suggest that new growth drivers—encompassing high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services—contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first half of the year. The economy's distinct shift toward a higher quality and more optimized structure is evident, and this overall trend is accelerating. For instance, industries related to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, have all maintained high growth rates exceeding 30%, vividly illustrating the pace of China's industrial upgrading. Third, confidence on the investment front is on the rise. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries grew by 4.6% year-on-year. Notably, investment in the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, and equipment, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5%, respectively. Investment structure best reflects market expectations. The increasing "new economy content" in investments signals an acceleration in the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. Investment in intellectual property products grew by 9.4%, indicating that enterprises are placing greater emphasis on R&D and innovation. This suggests that technological advancement is not simply about capacity expansion but about qualitative change driven by innovation. (II) Observing a Major Economy Requires Looking Beyond the Immediate Figures to the Long-term Trajectory. Behind the "new economy content" of the semi-annual report lies China's ongoing transformation from a global manufacturing hub to a global center of innovation. At the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos), observers noted a new phenomenon: a host of unicorn companies are heading to China. They are establishing R&D centers, regional headquarters, and deeply integrating into China's innovation and industrial chains—shifting from "produced in China" to "created in China." So, why China? Economist Justin Yifu Lin, in his book *Demystifying the Chinese Economy, touched upon the theory of the "speed of technological change." He argues that the essence of the industrial revolution is not just the application of new technologies, but more fundamentally, the ever-accelerating pace of technological change. Since the mid-18th century, starting with the steam engine reshaping the textile industry, the snowball of technological change has grown, rapidly sweeping through industries like chemicals and automobiles, ultimately redrawing the geographical map of great power competition. Looking at China today, the trajectory of accelerating technological change is equally clear. A leading enterprise can drive an entire industry, which in turn can boost a whole region. These burgeoning industrial clusters, growing from saplings to forests, not only enhance production efficiency and invigorate market vitality but also effectively improve development quality and resilience. For example, specialized and sophisticated "little giant" enterprises above a designated scale in Beijing, through deep cultivation of innovation chains, supply chain collaboration, and international expansion, have become "connecting points" and "accelerators" for the dual circulation strategy. More importantly, emerging industrial clusters possess powerful spillover effects. The rapid rise of new energy vehicles is not only reshaping the automotive industry but also driving transformations in chips, software, and energy networks, allowing more sectors to gain value from efficiency improvements. The swift advancements in AI and biomedicine are sparking a "gentle qualitative change" in people's livelihoods, significantly enhancing the sense of fulfillment and well-being through smarter, more affordable products and more livable environments. (III) Looking from the First Half to the Full Year, China's Development Momentum Remains Positive. Of course, during this critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, China's economy still faces lingering issues and new challenges. Some core areas are still grappling with "bottleneck" technologies, certain high-tech industries face external risks of "decoupling" and supply chain disruptions, and "involution"-style competition affects the new energy market ecosystem. However, most of these are issues arising from development and transition, and they can be addressed with effort. The supporting conditions and fundamental trends for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged. China's economic journey toward a newer, higher-quality model is itself a process of encountering new problems and solving them along the way. By maintaining confidence, proceeding steadily, and balancing both qualitative improvements and quantitative growth, China's industries are poised to be brimming with dynamism, and the Chinese economy will continue to advance steadily and sustainably. #China# #Jiangxi# #JiangxiEconomy# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

三只美股市场里聚焦半导体和AI科技的主题ETF： 1. $SOXX • 全称：iShares Semiconductor ETF • 发行商：贝莱德 iShares • 核心投资方向：全球半导体行业，覆盖芯片设计、制造、设备等全产业链 • 代表成分股：英伟达（NVIDIA）、AMD、高通、博通、台积电等 • 特点：高波动、高成长，是美股最具代表性的半导体行业ETF，长期受益于AI算力、自动驾驶等需求 2. $BAI • 全称：iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF • 发行商：贝莱德 iShares • 核心投资方向：主动管理型AI科技主题ETF，聚焦人工智能、机器学习、云计算、自动化等领域 • 特点：通过主动选股，筛选在AI技术研发和商业化上有领先优势的科技公司，比宽基ETF更聚焦AI赛道 3. $AIQ • 全称：Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF • 发行商：Global X • 核心投资方向：全球AI与科技主题，覆盖AI算法、机器人、云计算、大数据等相关企业 • 特点：持仓分散，包含美股及部分国际科技股，是布局AI产业链的低成本工具型ETF 💡 补充说明 • 这三只都属于行业/主题ETF，风险和波动都远高于标普500、QQQ这类宽基ETF，更适合看好AI和半导体长期趋势的投资者。 ：ETF的近1年涨幅对比表