im starting to really understand over reliance on subsidized $200/mo coding agent plans
in enterprise token pricing equivalents, in july id have spent ~$10k (and i did not max out the sub at any time)
when the ai lab overlords pull the plug on subsidies it will be truly over for many engineers currently living in the most productive period of their lives
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insane rotation on my USB-C charger today
phone
laptop
toothbrush
vacuum cleaner
airpods
whoop
portable fan
im living the european union dream, all powered by non renewable energy
for my royal pop international friends
in a couple of days, the search keyword on taobao for unofficial bands will be “royalpop表带”
they told you the next great opportunity after dropshipping was peptides education and redistribution
WRONG
its dropshipping again
the first person to setup an ecommerce for royalpop straps that makes them not look like ass will become a trillionaire overnight
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daily reminder that kevin works at kalshi
you are simply not bullish enough
you know the startup is gonna be insane when the founding engineers look like this
you can now use the best truth machine in existence as a trigger for your perp trades
this is genuinely a great use of prediction market consensus signals
The market knew. Did you?
Introducing Event Triggers using
@HyperliquidX and
@Kalshi!
A reimagined way to narrative trade. More info below + a prize. 😉 👇
may i interest you in the latest kalshi safety features?
joining kalshi last september was probably the biggest pivot of my career so far
for six years my entire world was crypto, DeFi and anons, and i honestly thought that’s where i would be long term. i never really pictured myself working anywhere remotely "traditional"
very glad i ended up taking this path
because what i found at kalshi was way less corporate than i expected and way more ambitious and fast moving than i could have imagined
i found one of the highest talent density teams i have ever been around
people here care A LOT. everyones pushes HARD. people regularly choose the harder path if they think it leads to a better outcome long term
there’s very little "good enough"
and the craziest part is that all of this has been built by a team of <150 people
i’ve learned an insane amount in less than a year here already
and tarek + luana are the kind of founders you hope to work with if you care about building hard things the right way
a lot of people will see the milestone today, but not the years of work behind it from the whole team
the regulatory fights, the launches, the iteration, the amount of conviction it took to keep pushing prediction markets forward before most people understood how big they would become
and one of the coolest parts recently has been watching the next phase start to happen in real time
more institutions entering the space, more liquidity, more serious participants paying attention, more people realizing prediction markets are going to matter
really grateful to everyone who helped get kalshi here. traders, builders, market makers, partners, everyone
we’re still very early
also, we’re hiring :3
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Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.
In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set of questions and harness the power of the masses to price them better than Wall Street.
Kalshi was born to fulfill that dream.
Today, most of these questions are traded indirectly, priced through imprecise proxies or negotiated bilaterally in opaque, restricted, relationship-driven markets. But thanks to our incredible community of users who make our markets work, Kalshi has the opportunity to change that by turning historically fragmented and untradeable risk into open, liquid, and standardized markets.
We’ve seen this movie before. When interest rates, currencies, commodities, and crypto moved from dark to lit markets, volume did not just migrate: access expanded, new use cases emerged, and the opportunity grew by orders of magnitude.
Today, Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally, with annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months.
What started as retail is quickly becoming institutional — hedge funds, asset managers, prop firms, and insurers are beginning to trade, provide liquidity, and hedge real-world risk directly. The scope and scale of prediction markets are just beginning to take shape.
We’re using this new capital to accelerate the institutional adoption underway — unlocking trillions in capital to facilitate active trading and risk management.
Prediction markets are moving from early adoption to core financial infrastructure. This is just the beginning.
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for my unemployed friends:
you might remember when Discord revamped the app and made the layout completely unusable
the same has happened today to Slack
employed people are now feeling the same pain we felt on December 5th 2023
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today’s adventure:
buying old ios devices to jailbreak
let’s see how hard claude can push modding