ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq
@donnelly_brent
President of @Spectra_Markets. Author of am/FX and Alpha Trader. I like trading, table tennis, my family, writing, hard/fast music, and poker. Not in that order
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Waller pinned his December rate hike view on October CPI above or below 0.3, despite the fact that oil has dropped 22% in a straight line since that data was collected and energy is by far the number one driver of inflation. Absolute silliness.
Hard to identify what framework he's using at this point.
I don’t want to overreact because he is turning max hawkish right after a massive drop in oil prices and that seems objectively silly. He said today’s CPI will influence his decision, which is odd, because that figure does not include U.S. voters’ rejection of the war last week and Trump’s apparent climbdown. So this is a strange week for him to turn max hawkish-–he was the leader of the doves less than a year ago.
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CoreWeave IPO was $40 and low was $33.50. Some supports to contemplate after this ludicrous round trip.
Procyclical leveraged beta momo cuts both ways.
Friday Speedrun is mostly for traders. Always free.
Justin Verlander says goodbye to his teammates
And then holds his daughter’s hand as he leaves the mound 🥹
Rybakina letting the girl from the US Open lemonade stand hold the trophy was wholesome
Elena “Do you want to hold it?"
"Really?"
Elena “Yes of course”
"Guys I just won"😂
Elena “Are you playing tennis?"
"Yeah"
Elena “So hopefully in 10, 15 years"🥹
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Payton Tolle's Smile right before his final pitch to get the Immaculate Inning.
Don't sound silly on Monday.
ES Sept Contract Settlement - 7659.50
ES Dec Contract Settlement - 7727.25
The contract roll gap is 67.75 handles.
as we approach 'Trump becomes Iran's bitch' key resistance level
i would expect another headline to come out soon from Trump/admin to push $CL prices down
i have highlighted the region
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I see a lot of takes akin to "the Fed shouldn't hike into a supply shock, they should ease" but this is a lot more than an energy shock from Iran. Rising strategic investment and the AI capex boom with sovereign backstop are HUGE factors in inflationary pressure. Those won't be helped in any way at all by cutting rates, they would arguably accelerate, especially with the labor market actively tightening from a historically low breakeven growth rate. I'm not sure the "look thru supply shocks" mantra really fits here at all. Consider how loose FCI is already amidst 6%+ deficits, then imagine if they fucking eased LOL.
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Bart Simpson is a continuation pattern.
Friday Speedrun.
Duo changes everything.
A lot of people on here seem to think the Fed targets the rate of change of YoY Core CPI.
Omg, Brent backtested the Bitcoin bart pattern. So good
There’s an irony to every adult receiving $5,000 checks if Democratic Socialism is defeated in the midterms
Trump: So Please raise your right hand: I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States
Crowd: I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States…
Trump: I'm going to try and cheat like hell like they do.
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Bart Simpson is a continuation pattern.
Friday Speedrun.
President Bush throws the first pitch of Game 3 of the 2001 World Series after 9/11
As silly as it sounds, it was important for him to throw a strike. No matter what you think of him, that was clutch/badass. Used the regulation rubber as well. Big time...
25 years later and I still think this is the greatest ceremonial first pitch ever
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She's a 10 but she hyphenates phrasal adjectives ending in -ly
