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Jamin Ball
@jaminball
Partner at Altimeter Capital. Dad to 4 amazing kids. No investment advice, all views personal
1.5K Following    92.8K Followers
This is the future, @attestable will usher it in! Zero knowledge proofs are about to become mainstream and very important in the AI domain
🫡 AgentX 1.0 from @SemiAnalysis_ has been months in the making, and the @inferact team did amazing work pushing @vllm_project to become the leading inference system for agents: KV offload, PD disaggregation, and production-grade reliability — all without compromising accuracy!
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Consistent with my views: “Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.”
More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic. Open source has gone from 28% token share to 62% token share @vercel over the last 2 months. Chart from @rauchg Super impressive given that the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic accelerated in July. So net token/AI infra demand accelerated even more than the acceleration we saw at the frontier. And suspect Grok growing even faster than open-source and we saw some of this in the @tryramp data. Open-source AI taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand as it lowers margins at the model layer and an open-source token costs just as much compute to produce as a frontier token. Nothing about open-source AI inference is “free.” Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.
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I asked people: "which AI supply chain startups (compute, power, chips, datacenters) valued at $10b or less are most interesting?" 10 votes: MatX 8: American Terawatt 6 each: Lightmatter, Modal, Prime Intellect 4 each: Valar Atomics, Wafer 3 each: Ayar Labs, d-Matrix, Gimlet Labs, Heron Power, Olix, Panthalassa, Positron, Substrate, Taalas, Tenstorrent, xLight 2 each: Aalo Atomics, Corintis, Fab2, General Matter, Ornn, SF Compute, Starcloud, Stone Power, TensorWave 1 each: 49 more startups, see image and below People also voted for Base Power, Crusoe, Etched, and Fluidstack but those are over the valuation limit. Disclosure: I'm a small angel in American Terawatt and Wafer. I didn't vote.
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The future of bio and medicine is quite bright @ProfluentBio
The biggest mistake made by almost everyone who claims that curing every disease within a decade, or accomplishing other insanely difficult things like reversing aging in such a short time, is impossible, is assuming that progress over the next 10 years will look something like the past 20 years, perhaps just a little faster. Yet, it will be radically different: the next decade will bring more technological progress than the entire past century. Just think of all the progress we had since 1900 to today happening in the next 10 years or so. That means many things people assume are still 100 or 200 years away could become possible within the next 10–15 years. By 2050, we will likely see more scientific and technological advancement than humanity experienced during the previous 5,000 years of civilization combined! This is the essence of the technological singularity: progress stops feeling linear and becomes so rapid, compounding, and transformative that the future becomes extraordinarily difficult to extrapolate from the past. And that is precisely why the concept is so difficult for people to comprehend, or accept, and also why some of us have such a conviction to keep claiming the impossible!
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Our founders sat down with the @WSJ for an exclusive look at our Series C fundraising round and the three low-cost, mass-producible weapons systems we’re building.
Missile-making startup Castelion closed a more than $1 billion funding round co-led by private-equity giant Carlyle Group, reflecting blue-chip firms’ growing interest in a booming corner of the defense industry
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Eight months after Erik Kriessmann (@ekriessmann) led @Castelion's Series B, Altimeter is pumped to deepen our commitment and continue our partnership with Bryon (@hargsb), Sean, Andrew, and the entire Castelion team as they announce their $1B Series C at a $13B valuation. Castelion is building with a rare combination of speed, technical ambition, and manufacturing scale. In just a few years, the team has taken Blackbeard from a clean-sheet design to flight-tested hardware and a program of record, secured more than $500M in U.S. military contracts, and has begun building what is currently the largest dedicated hypersonic missile manufacturing facility in the country. We believe Castelion is building one of the most important defense companies of this generation and demonstrating what is possible when American engineering and manufacturing move with urgency. Designed in California. Built in New Mexico. Supplied by businesses across America.
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Let's go! Pumped to deepen our partnership with @Castelion
Castelion has earned trust and credibility by demonstrating technology that creates an asymmetric advantage and can be built at speed, cost, and scale. They’ve turned ambitious promises into flight-tested hardware and real production capacity for critical national security priorities. We believe they’re building one of the most important defense companies of this generation. Pumped to double down and proud to keep backing this exceptional team. 🇺🇸
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Let's go!
Today, we announced that we crossed $7B in revenue run-rate, growing over 80% year over year in Q2. We also shared: 🚀 $100M+ revenue run-rate for Lakebase 🚀 $1.5B+ revenue run-rate for Lakehouse, growing over 100% year over year 🚀 Continued positive adjusted free cash flow And we raised $5B in our latest fundraise. We’ll use this capital to invest in: 1️⃣ Lakebase, our serverless Postgres database built for AI agents 2️⃣ Genie, our AI coworkers that actually understand your business data 3️⃣ Unity AI Gateway, our multi-AI governance solution that helps control costs @iamVictorDey shares more in @Forbes:
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Impressive work! For comparison, an H100 can do roughly 100-200 tok/s of Muse 30B for raw inference single-thread, going up to low thousands of tok/s with a large number of threads - and I am sure that for the massively-multi-threaded case they can optimize the prover further. So we roughly, sort of, have single-digit (<10x) overhead for LLM proving! Next step is getting single-digit overheads for FHE, and then ultimately vFHE (aka STARK * FHE). A crazy ambitious milestone given present FHE overheads, but because of how highly structured and almost-linear LLM inference is, it's closer to the realm of possibility than you might think. Single-digit-overhead all the things.
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Forward to community
We're very excited for @attestable to come out of stealth today. We @AltimeterCap co-led their seed round with @TLV_Partners, and believe they're building a crucial layer in the AI stack. It's clear two things are happening simultaneously - AI systems are making more consequential decision while their risk is going up (see Hugging Face incident). An existential questions becomes "how can you prove a model did what it was supposed to do?" Attestable is building this exact integrity and verification layer for AI, using zero-knowledge proofs to verify the right model ran on the right inputs and called the right tools. As agent workloads become longer running, verifying each step becomes even more important. The technical breakthroughs the Attestable has made to get here are incredible. Zero-knowledge proofs used to carry a 1,000,000x compute overhead, making them completely impractical for AI. The Attestable team has gotten this down many orders of magnitude, making ZK for AI something that can actually be deployed. We'll need this kind of integrity / security solution in a post-quantum world :) From securing model weights, to proving open models are backdoor-free, to giving agents verifiable identity - Attestable is building the integrity layer for an AI-powered world. As co-founder @Yogi_Brn puts it: every token should be a proven token. More below from my conversation with Yogi
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The world has identified verifiable AI as a missing civilization-scale primitive. The core technical obstacle, practical zero-knowledge proofs, was considered impossible. We solved it. Today, we are launching @attestablecom, the AI Integrity Company, and announcing a $20M seed round led by @jaminball at @AltimeterCap and @YonatanMandelba at @TLV_Partners , with participation from @HalcyonFutures, Cerca Partners, @Weiner_Lia at Netz, @nickymontanaa at Zero Knowledge Ventures, @assaf_rappaport, Asaf Ezra, Nadir Izrael, Jon Coller, Eyal Manor, @OmerPerchik.
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Very excited to partner with Volta and join the board alongside @RaghuRaghuram / @shangdaxu from @a16z. We've partnered with Volta at every round of financing, from their first to their most recent. AI is the biggest trend of our lifetime, and the infrastructure buildout that's coming to support it could end up >5% annual GDP. Building AI infrastructure is incredibly hard to do well, and even harder to do on time. We don't think there's a team better positioned to attack this opportunity than cofounders Ricard Boada and Sofia Gumuzio. Ricard once sent me a text that said "Nothing as joyful in this life as owning powered land." He was built for this :) Onward!
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Google Cloud knocked it out of the park again. They're now at a ~$99B run rate growing 82% YoY. Another MASSIVE jump in YoY growth Quarterly YoY growth trends below $GOOG
Next up on @AltimeterCap First Pass: A conversation with @matei_zaharia from @databricks on Omnigent Agents are in their infancy, and so are the ways we develop and build them. Omnigent is a meta-harness aimed at solving many of the gaps in agent development today
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Very soon we’re going to need ways to prove the identity of things we communicate with Zero knowledge proofs are coming for the field off AI