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Judge Glock
@judgeglock
Director of Research and Senior Fellow, @ManhattanInst. Author of "The Dead Pledge." Opinions are my own.
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I think we forget just how militarized American society was during the Cold War. In the late 1950s/early 1960s, we were spending about 1 out of every 10 dollars in the whole economy on defense. Today, only Ukraine beats that (even Russia spends less.)
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The 1991 President Bush report that brought NIMBY into public consciousness.
The richest suburb of America (Loundon county Virginia) is the world capital of data centers. What drugs are anti-data center people on?
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Many are excited about the new NC law banning parking minimums, but as with many state YIMBY laws it also imposes new costs. The law now allows cities to impose stormwater control measures on redevelopment, which will be a major barrier to densification.
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Flock Cameras are good. The online backlash is insanely dumb. It's possible to minimize the privacy risks while getting the very real safety gains that come from license plate readers and other cameras. My latest in @TheAtlantic breaks it all down:
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people say AI isn't changing the world but today during lunch to amuse some buddies on a group chat i made a movie poster and then even a trailer for a fake 90's direct-to-video action movie called Judge Glock so i know better, sorry haters
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Seattle passed a $26/hour min wage to help gig workers. It made things WORSE. Driver pay didn’t rise, but customers pay more, and restaurants get fewer orders. “The actual effect … sabotage one of the most successful businesses in the city," says @judgeglock of @ManhattanInst.
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This is a big step in the UK towards making procurement actually about procurement.
This is big. The Government is going to strip back social value procurement rules, and end Everythingism in procurement. This is a great step towards making procurement markets much better and more competitive. It’s been a big topic of our research at Re:State in the last year, so let me explain: - When government puts out a tender for bids, 10% of the ‘marks’ go to companies who can show they meet various ‘social value’ rules. There’s a whole gamut of guidance which requires them to prove they are things like carbon-neutral, moving jobs outside of London, revitalising high streets, DEI, and many more. These might all be important objectives to the government, but furthering them all through procurement distracts companies from delivering the core purpose of the contract, and adds cost – a phenomenon we call ‘Everythingism’. It’s particularly bad for small companies who get priced out of selling to the public sector because the overheads become so high, so they don’t compete at all – making the market much more concentrated in the long run. 20% of contracts government lets have one or even zero companies bidding for them – a nightmare for the taxpayer. - It looks like the Government are going to start cutting social value objectives and focus the list on these categories: higher paying jobs, apprenticeships, and routes for NEETs into work. This is a big improvement, not just because the list is shorter but also because these are easier objectives for companies to target, measure and quantify than the vaguer goals which are coming off the list. - They are also planning to entirely remove social value requirements from contracts under £1 million in value is very welcome. As we called for in our paper ‘Procure and simple’, giving small companies routes to bypass social value to win work is essential – the system is just too intensive for them to get work at that small scale. - However, it also looks like they’re also considering boosting the weighting towards social value objectives on contracts worth above £5 million, from the 10% of marks they currently get in a tender to 20%. That would be a mistake, and one which will mean more contracts are delivered at lower quality and higher cost – the two most important bits of what procurement should deliver. But if the set of metrics that 20% will be awarded on are significantly shortened, then that does slightly mitigate the impact. But I still hope this part of the proposal doesn’t make it through to the policy changes in the autumn. - Interestingly, the Cabinet Office are also asking departments to draw up a list of 10 high-growth companies to target for more contracts. We called for this approach in ‘Procure and simple’ because the distortions against startups and scaleups entering the procurement market are so extreme that I think you do need a counterbalance, and to focus on ways you give more contracts to them for innovative new products. The biggest problem with procurement policy is that it’s entirely ‘buyer-led’ – contracts which government puts out to solicit bids for. There’s basically no route for a company offering a genuinely innovative new product to come and sell it into the public sector – which massively hampers startups and scaleups. There’s plenty more they could do to eases the path for high-growth companies – for example, more targeted direct awards for innovative products, or exempting them entirely from social value weightings on contracts of any value (both possible under the current Procurement Act). I hope they take this seriously. Procurement rules govern over £300 billion of the economy. There’s a huge opportunity to free up the red tape stops British companies growing, and also stops them becoming great exporters to other governments, because they can’t even get a foothold working for their own Government here at home. @LOS_Fisher
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In the @WSJ, I review Annie Lowrey's "The Time Tax" about the growing government paperwork burden. She brings much-needed verve to the topic, but she focuses on the paperwork for accessing benefits, instead of the biggest drivers: taxes and regulation.
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In the @WSJ, I review Annie Lowrey's "The Time Tax" about the growing government paperwork burden. She brings much-needed verve to the topic, but she focuses on the paperwork for accessing benefits, instead of the biggest drivers: taxes and regulation.
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This map is a good reminder of general policy persistence. The U.S. keeps troops in many countries, but our greatest presence overseas is still in the two countries we beat and occupied 80 years ago.
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Bipartisan tax revolt arguably the most important state and local policy story no one is following systematically
This is also my experience--I will talk to SV folks about what policy they want, and they will state a goal, not a policy. So I will ask them again what the policy ask is, and they will say that they want the US government to do something that will fulfill their goal.
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What can Arizona learn from the data center capital of the world? @JohnHookfox10 recently spoke with @judgeglock on Newsmaker about Loudoun County, Virginia, home to one of the world's largest concentrations of data centers. A few numbers stood out: - Data centers generate nearly half of Loudoun County's property-tax revenue. - For every $1 the county spends providing services to data centers, it collects about $26 in tax revenue. - Loudoun's real-property tax rate has fallen every year for the past decade, a reduction of nearly 30%. That revenue has helped Loudoun invest in schools, roads, and parks while keeping tax rates relatively low for residents. Once completed, data centers typically require relatively few workers on site, which means less daily traffic and less demand on services like schools and police. The episode also addressed concerns about water, siting, and noise. Air-cooled and closed-loop designs can significantly reduce water use, while thoughtful zoning, adequate setbacks, and noise mitigation can protect nearby neighborhoods. These are reasons to plan data center development well, not reject the industry altogether. Loudoun County has around 200 data centers within roughly 520 square miles. Arizona has roughly 160 across more than 113,000 square miles. Arizona has plenty of room to place them responsibly and accommodate more growth. With smart public policy and planning, we can use the revenue generated by data centers to lower taxes and improve public services without disrupting nearby neighborhoods.
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At this point “let’s have government run the grocery stores” is hardly an experiment. We have 100 years of evidence for this now, and everywhere it’s been an unmitigated disaster.
I'm a fan of govt experimentation, but I don't think this is a very good idea. The problem isn't that grocery stores are greedy. The problem is that food got expensive. The Producer Price Index for all foods—avg price paid to domestic producers for food—jumped 30% between 2021 and 2023. Since then, grocery prices have continued to climb, in part due to increases in wages and housing costs. Without strong evidence that NYC bodegas and groceries stores are colluding to protect double-digit net profit margins, the reasonable assumption is that these businesses are operating with <3% margins after rent, labor, and utilities. So, a plan to sell some food with a 30% discount seems like a plan to create very long lines to buy a very small number of subsidized groceries. We'll see how that goes. But I don't think literal bread lines are the image that a socialist mayor wants to cultivate. As Keynes said in 1926, "the important thing for government is not to do things which individuals are doing already ... but to do those things which at present are not done at all." Bodegas are something we're doing already. Large grocers like Trader Joes are really really good at managing supply chains and keeping prices down, whatever you may think of their other policies. I do not trust a busy municipal govt trying to do 1,001 things to be better at groceries than grocers. But I guess we'll find out.
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Everyone knows Robert Moses, but Austin Tobin had about as big an impact on NYC and should be better known. The head of the Port Authority for the 30 years after 1942, he built the World Trade Center, Battery Park City, most of the Lincoln Tunnel, and the Port Authority Bus Terminal. He containerized the ports in NJ and NY. He assumed control of all 3 NYC airports and the PATH subway system. He provided the backing for both the Throgs Neck and Verrazano-Narrows Bridges. When he was PA general counsel, he was perhaps the most important voice in the country defending tax-exempt muni bonds from FDR's efforts in the 30s to end them. The story of Tobin complicates the typical Moses-dominated story of NYC in three ways. 1st, Tobin was a big mass transit fan, supporting subways, creating bus only lanes and so forth, which counters the image that NY government just starved mass transit at the time. 2. Tobin built big but generally got community support. As a former real estate lawyer for the PA, he was careful about eminent domain 3. Most importantly, Tobin won most of his direct battles with Moses, which contradicts the story of Moses's omnipotence. Moses's Triborough Authority was supposed to control the airports but Tobin rallied airline support for the Port Authority. Moses tried to sabotage the bus terminal but Tobin pushed it through. Moses wanted to redirect PA bridge and tunnel funds to his roads but was rebuffed. Thus, there was not 1 but 2 big, unelected bureaucrats who controlled the built environment of NYC in the 20th century, but Tobin if anything was the more successful one.
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California high-speed rail cost now up to $231 billion. That means the average worker in the state will pay out over $12,000 to fund a single project that almost no one will ride. CA rail will be studied for generations, a truly once-in-a-lifetime level of government failure.
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