The most underrated part of SpaceX's business is that its data centers pay for themselves in MONTHS, not years
SpaceX is currently building them (pre Vera Rubin) for about $28M-$32M per MW
They can lease that compute on the spot market for $45M-$50M/MW every year. In the most recent deals, Deutsche Bank estimates SpaceX is leasing compute for $60M/MW!
Now these are the numbers if SpaceX rents out that compute. There's also a growing need for SpaceX to us that compute within their own business for Grok and GrokBot
In this scenario, SemiAnalysis estimates that 1GW of compute being used to sell frontier model tokens is worth about $100B/year, 2x the amount of renting it out
Now of course, SpaceX doesn't have many GWs of compute in demand for their AI model (yet), so they can't eat up all of that supply on their own. But, if SpaceX and Tesla merge, then that compute can be used for the compute needs of Robotaxis and Humanoids in the future too, which will also have a high ticket rev return as these networks grow
Effectively, SpaceX is building a compute business with the optionality to rent it out for $50M/MW+ or use it internally for upwards of $100m/MW
And they expect to hit 2.6GW of compute by the end of 2026 and 10GW by EOY 2027. The revenue implications of this for SpaceX are absolutely massive
SpaceX will be one of the fastet growing companies by revenue in 2027 if they can actaully reach those numbers of compute
Great episode on $SPCX from
@kukulabanze on the
@MilkRoadStocks podcast yesterday