Nick Huber
@sweatystartup
I buy real estate and start companies. Owner of Bolt Storage, R.E. Cost Seg and more.
4.5K Following 536K Followers
This is all of AI right now.
The music will stop soon. Better find your chair.
VC money runs out -> prices rise dramatically -> users drop off -> valuations plummet.
My opinion:
AI models will really struggle to sell ads.
I don't know how they will slip them in without people moving to other models that aren't pay to play.
Google puts the people who pay at the top.
AI is better because it reads reviews, finds threads on social, finds real customers talking and makes recommendations.
Ads won't work here.
Show more
If every employee problem becomes your problem, you will never have a real company.
An employee walks into your office and says they have a problem.
You say, “get out of my way, I’ll handle it.”
Now it is your problem. Your day gets hijacked and they go back to work with one less thing to think about.
It is easier in the moment.
But if you do this every time, you become the bottleneck for the entire company.
Instead ask them, “what do you think we should do?”
Make them bring you a solution.
You will quickly find out who can actually think.
The good employees will start solving problems without you.
And you get your day back.
Show more
The world where Google can’t skim billions a year off the top of the economy (ads) is in the very near future.
You aren’t buying Google at 10% off tomorrow.
You’re buying a 3.5 trillion company that is up 100% over the last 18 months and directly tied to the incoming AI meltdown.
With its core business getting eaten alive. I haven’t used google search in 6 months and YouTube has turned into TikTok garbage.
Very bearish.
Show more
As a startup, you only have one advantage:
Bad advice that is constantly preached to young people:
“Follow your passion and make money doing what you love” even if that means being underpaid and struggling financially.
Good advice: “Make money chasing an opportunity now and then spend your time doing what you love later.”
More folks should spend the first 10 years of their career trying to achieve some financial stability before "chasing their passion" later on.
Unless you are in the .001% that hits it big early in your career chasing a passion, you should be spending your 20s building skills, a network, and savings.
You will be amazed at how much time you still have to pursue other opportunities later once you have built a base.
Show more
My experience has been the opposite.
But maybe it’s because I have a lot of hobbies so I meet people through the golf club, hunting, etc.
Golf attracts mega successful people in my experience.
Every very successful person I work with, has very few hobbies (if any at all). Business is their hobby.
This Anthropic IPO is big techs heist of the century.
How Google and Amazon did it:
> invest $26 billion cash in Anthropic
> sell them compute and chips
> get the $26 B right back
> but they need more compute
> and don’t have any money
> so they sell them more compute
> but for equity
> end up with 26% ownership.
> sign contracts to sell even more
> $200 billion + over the next 10 years
> your stocks rip 50%+
> trillions added to your market cap
> discount the compute heavily pre IPO
> Anthropic has a temporary advantage
> anthropic loads up on customers
> S-1 looks great
> $2T valuation at IPO
> Google and Amazon own 26%
> worth $500 billion +
> unload to retail
> secure the bag
Google and Amazon are suppliers, investors, and competitors all at once.
Retail buys in at the top before all the customers head to the next company with a shady deal for cheap compute.
Who’s going to hold the bag?
Show more
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
--
Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
Show more
You don't have to answer every phone call to start a side business.
When I ran Storage Squad, I had a day job. I couldn't always pick up.
My voicemail said:
“Hello, this is Nick Huber with Storage Squad. I'm sorry I missed your call. I'm probably out on another job, but I would love the opportunity to earn your business. Please leave a voicemail, send a text, or send an email and I'll get back to you as soon as I can. I can't wait to meet you. Thank you so much.”
Call them back as fast as you can. Smile through the phone. Act excited to meet people and solve their problems. Show some energy and make people feel like you actually want their business.
That alone puts you ahead of 95% of other small businesses.
Show more
The real winners of the Anthropic IPO:
Google and Amazon.
They sold Anthropic equipment and compute in exchange for stock and convertable notes so Anthropic could look more profitable than they are. They also invested $26B in cash.
They own 26% of the company.
Will be worth $530B+ at IPO.
Its a giant pump and dump scheme!
Show more
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
--
Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
Show more
Real estate values don’t go up when a recession hits for several reasons:
1) operations / cashflow drop. Lower revenue means less profit. Less profit means lower value.
2) banks have trouble with other assets and are less likely to provide new debt.
3) raising capital / equity for new deals is tough because everyone is hurting.
4) fear and future prospects look grim. Bankers and investors are afraid to do new deals.
Show more
@sweatystartup @Jimmydahitman60 This makes zero cents. Literally. If the all comes through (spoiler alert it won’t) rates will tank and real estate values will go up substantially
My kids drink 8 oz of orange juice every morning.
With 5g of creatine plus a multivitamin / electrolytes added.
Orange juice is not a health food. It's sugar water with a good publicist.
One 8 oz glass = about 20 grams of sugar. That's 5 sugar cubes.
And about half of that is fructose, the same sugar we're blaming for the fatty liver epidemic in kids.
No fiber. No protein. No fat. Just sugar water with a pinch of vitamin C...
Eat an orange if you must. Better yet, eat some eggs.
Carbs are optional & not needed.
Show more
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
--
Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
Show more
The richest people I know all worked hard on something boring for 5+ years. And most did this for 10-20+ years.
People have gotten the totally wrong idea about what it means to be an early stage entrepreneur. They truly believe that in less than a year they can launch a lifestyle business, replace their salary, and have perfect work-life balance just 6-12 months in.
Let me tell you right now that that is total bullshit.
If you want instant work life balance and to be home by dinner every night, you’re dreaming. It doesn’t work that way.
Starting a business is really hard, and you can’t give up your main income source until you have a proven model that can feed your family.
You will have to make sacrifices. You will miss some dinners. You will miss some weekends. You will miss some vacations (especially in the first few years as you build your base)
To me, it all comes down to patience and delayed gratification.
5 years in, you can absolutely be making 3X your old salary, have a team of people under you and work less but earn more than you used to at your old job.
That said, it takes TIME, a lot of good decisions and hiring and delegating to a team. It doesn't happen overnight.
Show more
Add in an absolutely dialed circadian rythm and your hormones will improve and all of the below will be more fun.
- morning sunlight in eyes and on body
- super bright days with no sunglasses
- mid-day light on skin (UV light)
- no LEDs in your house
- watch sunset
- blue blockers after dark
Show more
I regret to inform you that lifting 3x a week, walking 30 minutes a day, eating real foods, drinking water, being in nature, and getting enough sleep will make your mind and body healthier 95% of the population.
Show more
the craziest thing I've noticed out here in the UAE is how modern living is especially toxic for their genotype
environment-genotype mismatch
If you thought the standard American diet and modern indoor living was bad for us in the US, wait till you see what's happening here
Take generations of pearl divers and fisherman and put them indoors with SADiet...what do you get? massive chronic disease
infertility (IVF clinics here are making $$$), early cancers, insomnia, heart disease, obesity etc
kind of similar to what has happened to Native Americans in the US but without the socio-economic implications
and what do the clinics offer them here? expensive stem cells and shitty protocols
it really starts with light hygiene. MSH is needed here. bioregulators will help. hormone replacement will be needed.
Show more
Saw someone carrying @sweatystartup’s book in a mall in Asia (!) which I found impressive.
