Memory: Datacenter HBM unlikely to move to 4-Hi 🔑 We share TrendForce’s view that the chance of de-spec to 4-Hi is low, vs worries over 4-Hi which could deliver same bandwidth with fewer dies, cut inference costs & stretch limited DRAM supply • Two key reasons 4-Hi unlikely fly in datacenter AI:
– Per-stack capacity is too small (~16GB for HBM5/HBM4E) → hyperscalers would need more chips, racks & scale-up networking
– Higher volume still increases base-die demand on tight advanced logic nodes (esp. N2 for HBM5) → little to no supply relief • Supply-chain feasibility low: mainstream production is focused on 8-Hi & 12-Hi, vs development cost and low-volume 4-Hi flows • Cost per Gb is higher on 4-Hi vs 8-Hi, with similar total cube cost based on current price quote. • Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra dropping to 8-Hi is well expected (our note on Aug 6) • For Rubin Ultra we expect parallel development of HBM4 8-Hi 192GB / HBM4E 8-Hi 256GB / HBM4E 12-Hi 384GB, with higher chance of HBM4 8-Hi first, then HBM4E 8-Hi as the mainstream SKU (consistent with our earlier AI Thermal report of maintain 2600W) • Reiterate our positive view on the DRAM/HBM sector #HBM# #DRAM# #MU#

Are datacenter delays, or cancellations, impacting the AI buildout? Not yet. Chart below from @fernavid 's most recent AI update plots every DC project's construction progress since groundbreaking. 2026 projects actually tracking ahead of schedule (vs 28-month timeline).

anti-datacenter is just de-growth by another name instead of refusing to enable humans with more capabilities, we can figure out how to make more energy, mitigate electricity cost, and get to zero climate impact orbital datacenters becoming a legitimate part of the discussion right now is existence proof. we would be pulling power out of the sky. more short term, the needs of datacenters are a catalyst for building industrial capacity (including power generation) we should have built in America long ago. technology (and regulatory reform, redistribution) is the answer to abundance degrowth is an inhumane fantasy of folks who do not understand either poverty or economics