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"Earnings season is now over. So now we get to focus on headlines and vibes. Vibes right now are pretty terrible (which should be Bullish!), even with the QQQ’s still up +6.5% YTD and SOXX up +27% YTD. Is that enough to sustain a bottom? I don’t know! I’m not the macro guy…I literally spent last night doing multi-variable algebra to estimate APP’s Gaming and eComm Revenue split." - JPM's Mark Schilsky

Earnings season is off to a good start with 122 companies reporting so far and 80% beating estimates by an average 560 bps. Trailing earnings are up 33% from a year ago and the n12m estimate is up 39%. The difference between the n12m estimate and trailing earnings is 19% and decelerating. That suggests that a peak in the second derivative is forming. Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth, and this in part explains why the P/E-multiple is down 16% from a year ago. The other factor is of course the rising cost of capital.

Earnings season means reading every call, and no analyst has the hours for it. SuperAnalyst monitors all of the data flowing through AlphaSense and automates the work, reading each call and executing the specific process you want it to run. @cackerso sits down with @DWeisburd discuss how AI is changing the analyst role, why vertical AI can outperform general-purpose models in financial research and why proprietary data may become one of the most important competitive advantages in AI. Watch now ⤵️

Earnings season shifts toward the Magnificent Seven this week, with Microsoft (\(MSFT), Alphabet (\)GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) all scheduled to report and potentially drive major index volatility. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close, while Amazon reports Thursday. Wall Street expects Microsoft to post earnings of $4.72 per share on $90.68 billion in revenue, up from $4.13 and $77.67 billion a year earlier. Alphabet is expected to earn $3.02 per share on $128.18 billion in revenue, compared with $2.87 and $102.35 billion last year. Amazon consensus sits at $1.96 per share on $202.24 billion in revenue, versus $1.95 and $180.17 billion in the prior-year quarter. Dan Ives said the reports will provide an important read on AI demand, GPU deployment and hyperscaler capital spending. He estimates roughly $850 billion of hyperscaler AI spending this year against more than $2 trillion of cloud backlog, suggesting capacity remains the main constraint. For Microsoft, Azure growth and the pace at which new capacity is absorbed will be key. Amazon investors will focus heavily on AWS backlog, while Google Cloud and conversion of Alphabet’s reported $514 billion backlog will be central to its results. The three companies also carry significant weight across the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, meaning sharp post-earnings moves could ripple through major ETFs. Year to date, Microsoft is up 11.9%, Amazon 10.5% and Alphabet 1.7%, with all three trailing the Nasdaq 100’s 16.3% gain.

Earnings season is here – will micro dynamics drive bigger moves? Options aren't pricing it. Across the Russell 1000, options price an average earnings move of 4.9% vs. 5.9% realized over the past 2 years. That gap is the widest since 1Q24 earnings season, with similar pricing across all sectors.