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Adam Thierer
@AdamThierer
innovation policy analyst at @RSI & senior fellow with @TheFIREorg. Latest books: Permissionless Innovation (2016) & Evasive Entrepreneurs (2020).
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absolutely remarkable that Uber, one of the most disruptive innovators / technologies of modern times, has now embraced the exact political playbook it had to overcome and is attempting to use it to stop the next disruptive transportation revolution. Shameful.
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Dark-money groups just dumped $2.6M into D.C. ads to freeze robotaxis, outspending the actual mayoral race. Meanwhile, Uber is running heavy regulatory air cover, pushing "hybrid" rules to block standalone AVs from cutting out its app. They can’t beat the software, so they’re buying city hall to buy time.
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anti-data center election results already killing investment, construction, jobs...
scoop: Microsoft is getting sick of the neoclouds. It is stepping away from some projects, tightening oversight of others, and debating whether it will ink new deals moving forward. $iren $nbis $nscl
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Another important post from @RobAtkinsonITIF. This is how nations die: "what is new is the disdain in which technological innovation and the very notion of progress are held by elites, pundits, and charitable foundations in the United States. Whereas a generation ago there would have been near-universal agreement with the statement 'change is good,' today a host of interests from across the political spectrum would disagree or at least have severe doubts."
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Innovation is everything. And America used to beleive that. Now they beleive that innovation is bad. The elections showed that
the big @TheFIREorg "Soapbox" conference is getting underway in Philly this morning with inspiring keynotes from @glukianoff & @NicoPerrino. A celebration of freedom of speech.
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"we need to build. We need to expand to continue creating a new investor class for hundreds of millions of Americans, help everyone, every American, become an owner, to have real skin in the game, to create new generations of capitalists ready to reject socialism.* 🎯
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History was made last night. For months, we were saying that 2026 was the most consequential midterm election of our lifetimes. Unfortunately, we were right. Sometimes history is to be celebrated; other times, it is to be mourned. Always, it must be reckoned with. 2026 was not simply a blue wave; it was a blue tsunami. It was an ass kicking. It was not simply a bad 2006 midterm election. It was a Watergate-level repudiation. What happened, and why? What are the consequences, and where on earth do we go from here? When all the votes were counted, the problem wasn’t turnout. Instead, our voters, Republicans, Libertarians, Independents, showed up and voted, and rejected our candidates, voting Democrat instead. We’ve lost the House. We’ve lost the Senate. When all is said and done, we will have lost eight to 10 Senate seats. We lost in historically red states, like South Carolina and North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa. We lost in purple states, like Michigan, and New Hampshire, and Georgia. And we just barely won by just a single point in bright red states like Florida and Louisiana, and then there’s Texas. Nowhere are the consequences of this election greater than Texas. In the Lone Star State, we lost every single statewide election. For weeks, I had been publicly warning on this podcast that we were in very real danger of losing everything in Texas. Far too few believed that was possible. I am very, very sorry that it came to pass. Texas has not had a Democrat governor since 1994. We haven’t had a Democrat senator since 1993. Now we’ll have both. Why were the results so overwhelming? Pundits and analysts will break down the results for weeks or months or even years to come, but several things are already evident today. Years ago, the very best political advice I ever got was from Heidi. She said, “It’s not about you. It’s about them. It’s about their kids, their families, their hopes, their dreams, their futures.” Too many politicians forget that. Take the state of Kansas, for example, a state that has not elected a Democrat senator since 1932. It just did. Here’s what exit polling showed were the top issues in Kansas. Number one, cost of living, energy, and groceries. That was listed as number one by 30.6 percent of voters. Corruption. Number two, 18.5%. The cost of the Iran war, 10.1%. The candidates are terrible, 7.9%. The Canada trade war, 7.6%. The GOP didn’t do enough to support Trump, 6.6%. Republicans didn’t pass the Save America Act, 5.6%. Trump’s focus on monuments, 5.5%, and data centers and AI, 3.8%. The top issue, cost of living, is very real. Too many in politics dismissed it. They didn’t understand. They pointed to the macro numbers showing the stock markets soaring, median income at record highs, and poverty at record lows. Those data are true, but they don’t tell all of the story. Here are some stats that are a lot more real and personal. Spam, Hormel’s processed meat substitute, broke record sales, selling 113 million cans last year. That is nearly as much spam as was sold during the entirety of World War II. 29 percent of Americans have used buy now, pay later for groceries this year. That’s double the share just two years ago. In August, banks repossessed 42% more homes than they did last year. In 2024, car repossessions topped 2.3 million, above the 2009 peak in the middle of the Great Financial Crisis. In 2025, 6% of 401k holders took hardship withdrawals, paying penalties. That is a record, and triple the norm. And here’s one that’s really stunning. Americans made more than 75 million paid plasma donations in 2026. That’s another record. That means 200,000 Americans every single day, with a needle in their arm, just to pay for groceries. That is very real pain from real Americans, and too many Republican politicians seem like they didn’t understand or they didn’t care. Food is too high, gas is too high, diesel is too high, insurance is too high, life is too high. Tariffs have made everything too expensive, and the Iran war has dragged on too long. It should have been brief, decisive, and over. It needs to end, and we should never, under any circumstances, give the Ayatollah billions of dollars. There’s a very real economic disconnect. Our K-shaped economy is a yawning divide. Last year, we saw the world’s very first trillionaire, a modern-day Thomas Edison, at the very same time that millions were struggling to feed their families. Data centers being constructed were turning billionaires into centibillionaires, while simultaneously the average American’s electricity bill went up 30% in the last five years. Understandably, people were pissed off, and elected Republicans didn’t do enough to address their very real pain. So, what do we do now? We need to listen and respond. We need to champion economic policies that make a real difference in working people’s lives, and we need to deal with the consequences. Texas is blue. That is a hard sentence to utter. But Texas, today at least, is blue. As we sit here today, I am the only statewide elected Republican who remains in Texas. That’s not something I ever thought I would say. We can be certain that the Democrats in Austin and in Washington will overshoot. In Texas, they will try to raise taxes dramatically. They may even try to adopt a state income tax, or even a California wealth tax. They will try to shut down the energy industry, destroying jobs across our state. They will embrace the radical transgender agenda. They will persecute those they perceive to be enemies, especially Elon Musk. And in Washington, they will attack Trump every single day, constantly. Impeachment hearings, subpoenas, his family, cabinet members, business leaders, open persecution, and nonstop retaliation. Make no mistake. Nationally, the radicals are in charge. The communists and the Islamists who have taken over the Democrat Party have now taken over the United States Congress. They will be unleashed. Sadly, that means many Americans will be hurt. Texans will be hurt. Their assault on business will make Texas a much less attractive place to start or grow a small business. Texas will become more like California if they succeed in halting all new investment into AI. The economic results will be dramatic. Over $700 billion in new projects are scheduled to start in the next year. If the Democrats shut them all down, our country will very likely go into a recession. That will suit the Democrats just fine. They’ll just blame it all on Donald Trump. In the next two years, we need to do two things. One, fight the madness. I will work with Democrats when they’re willing to be reasonable. Last night, I called James Talarico. I congratulated him on his very impressive victory. It was a pleasant conversation, and I told him that I looked forward to working with him to try to benefit Texas. So, if there are things like flood relief for the Hill Country, or trying to get the space academy to Texas, he and I will work together. But if the newly elected radicals push policies that hurt Texas, raising taxes, destroying jobs, opening the border, releasing violent criminals, threatening our children, undermining our constitutional rights, I will fight with all of my strength to defend Texas and to defend the Constitution. And number two, we need to rebuild, getting behind policies that directly benefit the constituents we lost. There’s a complicated story, no doubt, of what happened on Election Day, but as I see it, the key constituencies we lost were blue-collar voters, what had rightly become the core base of our party, Evangelical Christians, who didn’t show up with the same numbers and fervor as prior elections, farmers and ranchers. Tragically, we alienated rural America. Young people, who excitedly had voted Republican in 2024, and who shifted hard blue this cycle. And of course, Hispanics. For Hispanics, there’s a strong overlap with young people and blue-collar workers. In 2024, just two years ago, I was proud to carry Hispanics statewide in Texas by six points, and we swung the Rio Grande Valley red for the first time in a century. It can be done, but in this election, those Hispanic voters overwhelmingly went back Democrat. We have got to turn that around. And for young people, we need to be the party of the future. We need to champion policies that expand their future. Our two single biggest legislative accomplishments of the past two years, Trump Accounts and the school choice tax credit, which will unleash tens of billions of dollars in new scholarships for kids, are generationally powerful. I was proud to author both of those transformational policies, and yet too few candidates all across the country ran on that record. Too few voters were even aware of what we’d accomplished for their kids and their future. But we need to build. We need to expand to continue creating a new investor class for hundreds of millions of Americans, help everyone, every American, become an owner, to have real skin in the game, to create new generations of capitalists ready to reject socialism. People voted as they did because they were angry. Ironically, the Democrats that they elected are going to advance policies that will make affordability worse. The Democrats want gas prices higher. They want to ban gasoline engines altogether. Their extreme environmental mandates will drive up food prices and the prices of everything else. But hear me now: we will bring Texas back. I am filled with hope and optimism. Texas will be red again. We have not suddenly become a bunch of tofu-eating, gun-banning, tutu-wearing pinko commie liberals. That ain’t us. Texas is still Texas. We will rebuild as a true blue-collar party, not by embracing socialism, but by being real free-market conservatives. The way we built the Texas economic miracle in the first place, and we will build and rebuild America as well. When the zealots overreach, and they will, we will stand ready to lead in the direction of freedom, of prosperity, of safety, and security, and common sense. We will return to a new dawn of freedom in America. It is dark right now, but it is always darkest before the dawn, and morning is coming. That is my fervent prayer, and that is my commitment to you.
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New from @RSI tech team: "What the Midterms Mean for Technology and AI" With thoughts on various tech policy issues from @MarrrkDalton, @NaThielman, @JGWithrow, @edtarnowski, @SpenceKjell, Wayne Brough and me:
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Part 2: How will the election results be read by the current White House and other Republican party leaders as it pertains to AI and digital technology more generally? In the longer run, it all depends on who wins the battle for the soul of the future Republican party. There are still pro-growth, pro-innovation forces in this White House, on the Hill, and among state governors and legislators. But the populist, anti-innovation forces on the Right remain quite strong today and many of them – egged on by various anti-tech pundits and activist groups – will read the election results as confirmation that the digital revolution and AI boom just aren't worth it anymore. I suspect JD Vance will lead that charge, and others like Josh Hawley have long been there. Ron DeSantis flirts with this position, too. Meanwhile, who speaks loudly for the pro-innovation perspective in the Republican party today? I am hard-pressed to name innovation champions in the current Republican party. Again, there are some out there, but they keep fairly quiet in the midst of all this unrest and in-fighting in their party. Defending innovation, creative destruction, and uncertain futures has always been hard for politicians. It's always easier to bash new tech as a threat rather than to embrace it as an opportunity. Neophobia (fear of the new), pessimism bias, and status quo preservation have often driven technological resistance among the public and politicians. And that has been true even among some Republican Party leaders through the years. On balance, however, there were usually more Republicans open to the future and new technological opportunities than opposed to them. We may be witnessing a reversal in that regard as an increasingly vociferous block of Republicans and anti-tech conservative activists become more comfortable with the status quo and even extreme solutions usually only floated by the hard Left. Horseshoe theory is real in a sense. To the extent political realignment could happen in modern America, the growing conflict over progress and innovation will likely be a major part of it. Even short of full-blown political realignment, however, such “horseshoe” dynamics will become more evident and politically charged in the age of AI and fast-moving technological change. For Republicans, they will have to make some hard choices and make them soon. But for the reasons I identified in my earlier essay today and other recent writings, I suspect that the stasis mindset prevails and that a great many Republicans throw in the towel on this technological revolution. They will continue to use all the same rhetoric (“Beat China,” “Build in America,” etc), but when it comes time to craft policies to actually build and innovate to accomplish those goals, they will balk and embrace the status quo and stagnationist policies. Or they will just let Democrats push through a viciously anti-tech, degrowth agenda and not do much of anything to stop them.
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What the 2026 Elections Mean for AI, Robotics & Data Centers: 5 Trends to Watch
What the 2026 Elections Mean for AI, Robotics & Data Centers: 5 Trends to Watch
One of the common arguments against Autonomous Vehicles is that they could have a negative impact on jobs. In my latest for @ocregister, I go over some recent data that says, not so fast. Competition improves, prices hold steady, and drivers get paid more. Wins all around.
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Weird that governments spend so much time mandating in-car automated speed limiters and breathalyzers to deal with unsafe drivers, while they simultaneously work to slow driverless car tech that could address those and other problems much better. 🤷
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"I used a calculator-" Then you aren't a mathematician. "I used spellcheck-" Then you aren't a writer. "I used a GPS-" Then you aren't a navigator. "I used a spreadsheet-" Then you aren't an accountant. "I used a search engine-" Then you aren't a researcher. "I used a CAD-" Then you aren't an architect. "I used a telescope-" Then you aren't an astronomer. "I used a microscope-" Then you aren't a biologist. "I used a compiler-" Then you aren't a programmer.
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excited to be part of @TheFIREorg's big first-ever "Soapbox" conference in Philadelphia next week. All the cool kids will be there celebrating free speech. I'll be moderating a panel on AI policy & free speech issues. Can't wait!
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Next week, about 550 free speech advocates and thought leaders will descend on Philadelphia for @TheFIREorg's first-ever Soapbox conference. Believe it or not, in FIRE's 27-year history, we've never hosted a general-audience free speech conference. We've hosted student and faculty conferences, but nothing like this. We figured the 250th anniversary of American independence was as fitting a time as any to give it a try. We had no idea what to expect. Would anyone buy tickets? Conference experts told us most tickets are sold in the weeks leading up to an event. Instead, we sold out two months in advance! America's free speech movement is growing, and its members are eager to meet one another. I'll deliver the opening keynote, "The Fight for Free Speech," a nod to the title of the ACLU's first annual report in 1921. The talk will summarize the story I tell in my forthcoming book: how civil libertarians fought to make the promise of the First Amendment a reality. Other speakers include @nickgillespie, @LarryLessig, @prestonjbyrne, @ENBrown, @CaseyMattox_, @chrisbest, @RosenJeffrey, @FreeRangeKids, @sapinker, @Musa_alGharbi, @marcorandazza, @AdamThierer, @DavidAFrench, @whignewtons, the @wethefifth guys, @ishapiro, @noam_dworman, @JohnHMcWhorter, @mtaibbi, and many, many more. I can't wait to see you all next week. And if you can't make it, I hope to see you at the next one. Just be sure to get your tickets early!
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I’m perplexed by this @tylercowen “defense” of effective altruism movement, which instead somehow gives the reader even more reasons to be suspicious of them! > “Some effective altruists also rate above average in arrogance. […] A rationalist and deductive approach to truth can shade into arrogance itself, with its suggestion that complex moral matters can be solved definitively.” > “It is easy to turn normies against effective altruism, especially in its more extreme forms.” > “One commonly perceived problem with effective altruism is that it devalues humans’ natural preference for our own species.” These all seem like good reasons to question the movement, not endorse it!
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I finally got around to listening to this @a16z podcast featuring @levie, @stevesi & @martin_casado on the "pacing" debate and what true AI system security really looks like. An outstanding discussion. I was shouting "YES!" at every juncture. Please take the time to listen:
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As you can see from the opening and closing pages of the book, Socher is hugely enthusiastic about the potential for AI to advance science, health, and knowledge in profound ways. As he concludes: “[T]he future will be more human (and humane). It will be richer in possibilities, healthier and wealthier, more abundant in clean energy and other resources, and freer from the zero-sum scarcity that has defined so much of our history.” 🚀
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The new Sanders-Casar “Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act” is the perfect embodiment of authoritarian thinking. Jail time for innovators, corporate death penalties, flat innovation bans, an unprecedented general-purpose technology regulator, ambiguous threats against “rogue actors,” and even hints of hostile actions against foreign governments who continue to develop advanced AI systems. If America followed this techno-totalitarian script, it would represent one of the greatest expansions of government power in our nation’s history and a de facto declaration of technological surrender in the AI and robotics revolution as China races ahead on both fronts. The ramifications for our national security are horrifying.
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Caveman Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
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WATCH: Professor @pmddomingos: "Europe actually passed this AI Act some years ago that puts draconian restrictions on AI.... Europe is now out of the AI race. I hope we're not gonna let the same thing happen in America."
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Panic produces stupid policy, such as this from the NYT. "Once a federal Artificial Intelligence Commission exists, it should require companies to obtain a federal license, a grant of permission like those allowing broadcasters and phone companies to use the public airwaves." No.
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What AI has done so far: MEDICINE • Helped paralysed people speak again. (Brain implants turn intended speech into words, even recreating their own voice.) • Helped a paralysed man stand and walk again. (A brain–spine interface let him control his legs by thinking.) • Helped blind people read and understand the world around them. (Describing surroundings, reading labels and identifying objects through a phone camera.) • Uncovered cancers doctors would otherwise have missed. (29% higher breast cancer detection in a major study.) • Identified antibiotic candidates that kill drug-resistant bacteria. (Abaucin targeted a dangerous superbug in lab and animal tests.) LEARNING • Made personalised learning available on demand. (An ‘Einstein’ as your personal tutor whenever you want to learn.) • Helped students learn twice as much in less time. (A custom AI tutor outperformed an active-learning Harvard physics class.) • Helped people write, code, design and build without years of specialist training. SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY • Predicted the structures of over 200 million proteins. (Opening new paths to understanding disease and developing medicines.) • Discovered planets hidden in telescope data. (Including Kepler-90i, the eighth planet in a distant solar system.) • Recovered ancient writing buried by Vesuvius nearly 2,000 years ago. (Reading inside carbonised scrolls too fragile to unroll.) • Begun unlocking how animals communicate. (Patterns in whale calls. Evidence that elephants use individual, name-like calls.) • Produced a proposed solution to one of mathematics’ hardest problems. (Navier–Stokes: 10,000 AI agents, 88 hours, according to OpenAI.) ENVIRONMENT • Predicted where a hurricane would strike nine days before landfall. (GraphCast forecast Hurricane Lee’s Nova Scotia landfall about three days ahead of conventional forecasts.) • Engineered enzymes that break down plastic in hours rather than centuries. • Detected wildfires before the first emergency call. (Spotting smoke and alerting firefighters earlier.) • Slashed the weedkiller farmers need by targeting weeds individually. (35% less herbicide in sugarcane trials, with nearly the same weed control.) ENERGY • Advanced the science of clean fusion energy. (Controlling and shaping superheated plasma inside an experimental fusion machine.) • Driven a generational wave of investment in carbon-free energy, from nuclear power to solar and wind. (Microsoft’s Brookfield deal alone targets over 10.5 GW of new renewable capacity by 2030.) TRANSPORT • Delivered dramatically safer driverless journeys. (Waymo: 81% fewer injury crashes per mile than human drivers in the areas studied.) • Given people who cannot drive a new way to travel independently. (Including blind passengers and older people who cannot drive.) JOBS AND GROWTH • Fuelled an investment boom. (AI-related investment categories accounted for an estimated 37% of U.S. growth in the first nine months of 2025.) • Driven demand for the skilled trades building AI infrastructure. (Electricians, welders, construction crews and cooling specialists.) WHAT AI HAS NOT DONE • Replaced all the radiologists. Guess what? We still need more of them. • Used a community’s water. Golf courses use more. (U.S. golf irrigation: roughly 550bn gallons in 2020. Data centres’ direct consumption: 17bn in 2023. Microsoft’s next-generation designs consume zero water for cooling.) • Raised everyone’s household electricity bills. (Oregon’s PGE: residential bills cut 1.3% after shifting costs to data centres. Indiana’s I&M: proposed household savings of roughly $100 a year, supported by large-customer growth.) • Demonstrated that it wants to kill us all.
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