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Daniel Maguire
@DMaguireARK
@ARKInvest Analyst | Autonomous Technology & Robotics | 🇮🇪🤖🔋⚡️🚗 | Disclosure:
378 Following    7.8K Followers
Thanks for having us, @zipline and @Keller! So cool to see the future of autonomous delivery being built. Slowly, slowly, then all at once…it really feels like we’re at the inflection point!
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Economic activity is energy transformed. Throughout history, humanity has developed technologies to improve the energy<>GDP transfer mechanism. Super Intelligence will be the most valuable transfer mechanism in history, spurring unprecedented GDP growth.
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Starship’s full reusability is critical to SpaceX’s future, but F9’s decade-long lead deserves more recognition - it changed the game and remains 10 years ahead. Once F9 retires, there's lots of space for US launch providers (who execute) to address the launch bottleneck.
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28 September 2008 - Falcon 1 reaches orbit. 28 September 2026 - Starship reaches orbit.
Waymo’s latest Q2 data marks a notable inflection point in operational safety! Robotaxis are safer than humans. ~40,000 people die annually in US road accidents. Release the robotaxis!
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AI Is The Most Powerful Joule In History Economic activity transforms energy -> GDP. Historically, technology has improved this conversion. AI represents humanity’s most profound conversion mechanism yet (~10x humans & growing). Energy-rich, low-income countries don't exist!
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SpaceX acquired a gas turbine business to address a key power bottleneck, casting blades and vanes, likely supporting its goal of scaling compute from ~2GW by year-end to “closer to 10 GW” by the end of next year. More power buildout should accelerate economic prosperity:
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Great news for @RadiantNuclear! Congrats to @DougBernauer, @torishiv, and all of the team on the massive win! Mass manufacturing of microreactors will play a critical role to push nuclear energy back onto its previous cost-decline trajectory
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The @USArmy has awarded Radiant $750 million to deliver 15 Kaleidos microreactors through the Janus program, one of the largest contracts @DIU_x has issued to date. The Army launched the Janus Program to strengthen the energy resilience of military installations and mission-critical infrastructure. Radiant was chosen after extensive evaluation of reactor design, technical maturity, manufacturing readiness, deployment strategy, and commercial viability. Radiant’s 15 microreactors will enable the Army to deploy nuclear power across multiple locations. In tandem, the operational data acquired through the Program will accelerate commercial deployments across a global footprint of commercial customers. Learn more:
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Last week, Zipline and Uber announced a partnership targeting one million drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029. DoorDash, the largest food delivery platform by volume, is taking a different approach and building its own drone platform, DoorDash Air. Separately, Amazon’s drone delivery service plans to reach nearly 500 cities and towns by the end of 2026. Manna launched in Tulsa, Oklahoma and Walmart is targeting more than 270 drone delivery locations in 2027. ARK’s research suggests that drone delivery at scale could cut last-mile costs by more than 90%. @TashaARK and @DMaguireARK on what all of this could mean for the addressable market in this week's newsletter ⬇️
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Drone delivery is at an inflection point in the US - read our take on the industry's recent developments across all the key competitors below! 🤖
SpaceX just hosted its first earnings call as a publicly traded company - read our thoughts on key takeaways below!
SpaceX disclosed lots of tidbits in its first ever earnings call...hear our thoughts on the key takeaways below! 🚀💫
SpaceX shared a $100B annual recurring revenue target and is building enough compute capacity by next year to require the power output of 20 large nuclear reactors. @TashaARK and @DMaguireARK unpack SpaceX's Q2 earnings call—from AI capital spend to Starship's next test flight.
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Drone deliveies are on pace to go from under 1 million deliveries last year to ~10 million this year. @realBobbyHealy, founder and CEO of @MannaAero, tells @TashaARK and @DMaguireARK on FYI why fully digitized airspace could be a trillion-dollar market.
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One Dublin hospital spends nearly $20 million a year on taxis moving lab samples. @MannaAero's drones fly the same route off the hospital roof in six and a half minutes. @realBobbyHealy, founder and CEO of Manna Air Delivery, shares the story on "For Your Innovation."
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Great discussion on drone delivery with @realBobbyHealy and @TashaARK! 🤖 We live in exciting times, tune in to hear how @MannaAero plans to transform last mile delivery!
FSD for ~$1/day Tesla's gamification of FSD creates a powerful incentive to let the car drive. Last month, ~98% of my miles were driven with FSD which, through Tesla Insurance, saves me $66/month. Safer. More comfortable. Cheaper. Every mile makes FSD better.
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Are you ready for the Starship launch tonight? Here's how Research Analyst @DMaguireARK, ACA sees reusable rockets driving the space economy. Substack article:
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A lot can happen in a year. Here is a brief timeline of some of my 1 year highlights... 13 months ago: we released the SpaceX open source model with Ark invest. Months of work with @VladSaigau @skorusARK @DMaguireARK and @wintonARK to conclude SpaceX had a decent shot at being worth $2.5T by 2030 (just launch and telco business then). @CathieDWood deserves a ton of credit for recognizing SpaceX needed public company level of coverage before anyone else and for trusting us to help. 11 months ago: our first article to go viral (for us) after getting picked up by TL;DR newsletter - Starship 50x Bandwidth reduction. (I didn't know what TLDR was at the time). 8 months ago: my first X engagement from Elon, on an observation that the Overton Window seemed to opening for Orbital Data Centers. that post also got featured on TBPN. we double down on publishing ODC research publicly. 7.5 month ago: first rumors on SpaceX going public emerge, catches the entire world off guard. along with valuation bump from 400B to 800B, which the Mach33 model released a month earlier by @VladSaigau called within 5% (we were equally shocked as everyone). 7 months ago: David Sacks and Chamath quote post my observation on 'red lines and blue lines' and later that week bring it up on All-In podcast. 6 months ago: I share several weeks of ODC analysis publicly begging MSM to do some diligence before publishing dumb articles. Elon calls the analysis 'excellent' for people who don't actually fly sats. 10 days later SpaceX files for their 1M SSO AI sat application with the FCC. @TeslaLarry tells his audience my account is the most important SpaceX follow behind Elon (i gain 10k followers in 24 hours). can't thank you enough for that, Larry! 2 months ago: we release our spacex gigamodel monte carlo where 96% of all simulations clear the 1.75T IPO price, some as high as 30T. Elon say's these numbers fall far below his goals. 1 month ago: SpaceX IPOs. SpaceX over that same time: filed for 1M AI sat constellation, merged with xAI, announced Terafab, signed 2B+ per month in AI compute contracs, bought cursor, announced AI1 sat specs, rebuilt Grok from the ground up, Filed for 100,000 V3 Starlinks, broke the Pareto frontier with both Composer and Grok. My personal X analytics over that time: sub 1k followers to 25k, 98.6M impressions, countless opportunities and relationships built with like-minded folks. thank you to everyone who's supported me and Mach33 along the way. So many who've gone out of their way to help and provide encouragement. It's been incredible to see the acceptance of our physics first (first principles) research. @jbarseneau and I are excited to continue building the next generation of truth-seeking research and playing a small role in accelerating human expansion. I truly believe this is just getting started and the next two decades will be the best decades humanity has ever scene.
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Business as usual... palate cleanser for Starship coming up this evening!
Where is everyone watching the flight ?! As SpaceX says...no matter what happens, excitement is guaranteed! 🚀
What does success look like for tonight's @SpaceX Starship launch? @DMaguireARK explains what ARK is looking for.