JD
@jdhasoptions
Mathematics&Statistics/All in AI/DYOR
732 Following 3.2K Followers
$STX Bullish or Nah???
After FUNDA published this LLM Report, 75% of the TMTB community believed that the gap between closed-source and open-weight models was widening again, a complete reversal from the prevailing view in August. Thanks to @TMTBreakout for compiling the data. FUNDA, meanwhile, has been discussing this trend for two months.
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UBS: Lead Times
Foundry: 3-4 years
Semicap equipment: 1-2 years
Adv. packaging/substrates: 1-1.5 years
Storage systems: 1-2 years
GPUs/AI accelerators: 6-12 months
Memory (HBM/DRAM): 6-12 months
Optical transceivers/networking: 3-9 months
CPUs: 3-6 months
Servers: 1-2 months
$DELL $INTC $AMD $LITE $NVDA $TSM $MU $AMAT
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Hyperscalers are expected to return to FCF positive in 2028. JPMAM
$TLT - call buyers stepping in
TLT IV rose sharply this week (right on chart)
Skew rank also increased (higher in chart) which is a signal of OTM call demand (a bet on lower rates)
we see this in other rate sensitive assets too like XLU
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High beta relative to low volatility is about to close at another new weekly all-time high.
They keep saying how bad breadth is, but history also tells us this is a very bullish development. As you can see, the S&P 500 tends to follow this ratio.
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SEPTEMBER U.S. JOBS REPORT 👇
NONFARM PAYROLLS +29K, (Est. +90K)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%, (Est. 4.1%)
AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY 3.0%, (Est. 3.1%)
PARTICIPATION RATE 61.8%, (Est. 61.6%)
PRIVATE PAYROLLS +46K, (Est. +81K)
AVG. WORKWEEK 34.4 HOURS, (Est. 34.3)
GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS -17K, (Prev. +44K)
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$STX -10%; $WDC -7%
Toshiba plans to invest ~$380M to double HDD capacity for AI data centers by FY2027, expanding its Philippines plant.
It’s targeting 65TB drives by 2030 and eventually 100TB, as tight memory supply and SSDs costing ~20x more push more AI storage demand toward HDDs.
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$MU (Micron Technology) #earnings# are out:
5s30s has flattened by 33bps in the three weeks since we initiated the trade in our latest macro memo.
Did we write 36 pages of macro reasoning when we could have just said “don’t fight the fed/treasury”, yes…but that’s the beauty of macro research isn’t it?
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If the $ drops below the 50% level of yesterday's upside buying orgy (in part short covering), it has potential to be the mother of all bull traps. NOTE "failure test"on the hourly charts. Now U turn.
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GOLD gives WRR (Wide Range Reversal) Buy.
Warsh is a man of decency. He upholds the independence of the FED
25bps 加息符合预期，dots甚至偏dovish
超预期鹰的是Warsh在记者会上的发言
列举几条
“I would be hard to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive”
“The view was widely shared by committee, so we removed a dose of accomodation”
“Our predominant focus is on price stability”
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FED CHAIR WARSH HIKES RATES 25 BPS, AS EXPECTED
One of the few true masters on X.
Yes, I am still short $IWM from August 31. In case you were wondering.
I voted yes
Will the Fed hike rates tomorrow?
GPT-6 Sol is Coming This week
GPT-6 Sol Will be released On Thursday
This Week will be a Big Week
GIANT $7.3M $XOM Call (Unusual)
$NOK Finnish Media is speculating if Trump wants Nokia.
Analysts say: “Something is now underway.”
• Nokia shutting down China R&D
• €4bn US R&D program with Trump administration
• Nvidia already took a major stake
• Clear Western alternative to Huawei
Geopolitics is lining up perfectly for $NOK.
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