Imagine the perfect end run around the cellular carriers.
Every Tesla Cybercab contains a specialized Starlink terminal that not only provides broadband connectivity for the vehicle, but also functions as a femtocell— a miniature cellular base station serving nearby phones.
Starlink supplies the backhaul for both voice and data, eliminating the need for expensive fiber-fed terrestrial infrastructure.
SpaceX has already described the femtocell model as one approach to expanding mobile coverage. Instead of relying solely on large, costly cell towers, connectivity can be distributed across thousands— or eventually millions— of small access points.
SpaceX has also said these femtocell capabilities would be integrated into the same hardware that hosts Starlink user terminals. Tesla's Cybercab just so happens to integrate Starlink, making it an intriguing platform for exactly this kind of distributed network.
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Scaling Robotaxi: the 10x/100x problem
Investors are unhappy with Tesla's progress on Robotaxi, yet it is progressing. Obviously, a little over a year into the effort, it's nowhere near scale.
But things are always harder than they seem, even to a team and leader completely earnest about delivering.
Let me explain the problem: it's about scaling.
Elon doesn't think in terms of "better than the competition." He thinks in orders of magnitude: 10x this, 100x that.
While Waymo is out there, it's nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near what Elon wants to achieve. If there are 500 Waymos on the road today, Elon wants that to be 5,000... and then far beyond that.
And that, my friends, wraps a pretty bow around both the opportunity and the problem.
Now, this investor is patient. It's not that I don't see the obvious slow progress. It's that I have a deep understanding of the problem they're trying to solve.
If you want to do something at 10x or 100x the scale, you're playing a different game on a different field. You have to scale every part of the product: the physical cars, the software, and the myriad of operational systems needed to run the service.
Let's stipulate that with 500 cars in San Francisco, Waymo logs 30 incidents a day. Most are minor. Some require customer service. Some require engineering. I have no idea if those are the real numbers, but that's not the point.
If you're Tesla and you want 5,000 cars, you can't simply accept 300 incidents a day because everything scaled by 10. You still need that number to be closer to 30. That's the challenge.
The software has to be damn near perfect. And not just the safety aspects of FSD in the cars, but the entire stack. You have to automate the vehicle and automate the operation of the service.
This is hard. I mean really fking hard. But on the other side of that is a dam bursting like nothing else. At some point— call it a year— Tesla will flood the market, and Waymo will look like a quaint first attempt.
I already know what the negative comments on this post will be. I could write them for you.
But if you're a $TSLA investor, you need to understand how Tesla operates. If you don't, you may want to invest in another "car" company instead.
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