#VCSEL# demand projected to reach 650 million units by 2031, a 38% CAGR from 2025. Lumentum, Furukawa Electric, Coherent, Broadcom, ams OSRAM and HiSilicon develop #NPO#, several solutions expected in 2027-2028. 💡More: 🔗 $LITE $COHR $AVGO $AMSSY $FUWAY

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.

AI data centers are fueling optical interconnect demand! #VCSEL# sales are projected to hit 650 million units by 2031, growing at a 38% CAGR from 2025 to 2031 as major players race to seize opportunities.💡#TrendForce# on optical communications and NPO: 🔗

$SIVE bulls should keep an eye on WIN Semi‘s next ER. WIN’s October 23 earnings call should provide updates on optical communications, capacity plans, and its outlook for Q4 and 2027. WIN’s EML and VCSEL products are already in mass production, with shipments expected to expand. CW laser development is moving more slowly, reflecting limited current demand and longer customer qualification cycles. Revenue for the first nine months reached NT$15.706 billion, up 32.6% YoY. Non-handset applications now account for a larger share of its business than traditional handset applications.

$AXTI $LITE $COHR If MicroLED stalls, the gain goes to lasers, as Serenity says. But the two lasers he names grow on different wafers, and only one of them is short. VCSELs are gallium arsenide parts for short multimode links, the slot MicroLED was aiming at. The CW lasers that light co-packaged optics, and the EMLs in today's pluggables, are indium phosphide. InP has "only three primary suppliers," per AXT's 10-K: AXT in China, and Sumitomo Electric and JX Advanced Metals in Japan. The laser makers already say where the pinch is. Coherent: "indium phosphide capacity continues to be our primary constraint." Lumentum said in August that ultra-high-power laser demand "has surprised us" and that it has spent three months trying to "secure even more substrate supply." More supply is coming, mostly after 2027. Sumitomo plans about 3x its InP substrate capacity from 2024 to 2028. JX is spending up to ¥120bn over four years to reach 7 to 10 times its fiscal 2025 level. In China, Yunnan Germanium is going from 150,000 to 450,000 wafers a year and Vital Materials to 3 million by August 2029, and those wafers leave China under dual-use export licences. The average 4-inch InP substrate in China was RMB 6,250 in early August, up about 45% since January. So a MicroLED setback lands mostly on the wafer that's already short. AXT reports on Oct. 29, and its licensed exports to Europe are the line we'll read first.

At the #ECOC# Exhibition, Lumentum, Qualcomm, and Corning Incorporated are demonstrating a high-density optical die-to-die architecture using 1060 nm VCSELs to support high-bandwidth, low-power, and low-latency links over multimode fiber. The demonstration combines Lumentum's VCSEL platform, Qualcomm's D2D interface technology, and Corning's fiber connectivity - showing a practical path toward compact, energy-efficient optical links for next-generation Al systems. Source: $LITE