Leeno is losing customers due to a labor strike, and advising customers to seek alternative sources. "It is understood that orders have already been transferred to competitors such as Japan's Yamaichi and Yokowo, and Taiwan's Winway."

An underappreciated #ABFsubstrate# name is the Japanese company Toppan ($7911.TYO). The real profitability story here is somewhat masked (pun intended) by the photomask business they recently spun off. And this comment from $AVGO yesterday is definitely a positive sign.

Hanmi Semiconductor (042700 KS) won a double-digit order for 2.5D packaging bonders from a Taiwanese foundry, according to ET News. The tools passed mass-production qualification and are now being deployed. Hanmi is expanding beyond HBM TC bonders into 2.5D packaging for AI processors.

For years, Nanya PCB has avoided LTA's. Specifically, they have avoided $INTC business for this reason. And just like in the last cycle, avoiding LTA's mean they have greater upside to raise prices relative to peers during supply crunches.

Singapore has increased their Substrate imports as they ramp packaging capacity. But want's most interesting is where all those substrates are coming from - Malaysia. $ATS.VIE $222800.KQ

Chipbook subscribers have been watching the wire bonder story unfold since May, when we first noted, "While front-end demand has moderated, we are beginning to observe improving activity across portions of the back-end ecosystem, particularly in wire bonders".

ABF substrate supply is tight, and key suppliers are looking to expand capacity globally. One interesting read through is MEC ($4971.TYO), a Japanese specialty chemicals company with an effective monopoly on the CZ series adhesion promotion chemistry used in ABF substrate manufacturing. The chemistry is critical. It enables copper circuitry to bond to the build up film and is applied at every layer of the substrate. MEC’s latest disclosures show sales to China growing far faster than to any other region. This looks like an important signal that Chinese substrate makers are investing aggressively to build the technical expertise and capacity needed to compete in ABF. Some of the increase may come from non Chinese suppliers manufacturing in China, such as AT&S and Zhen Ding. But it is hard to see that alone explaining the magnitude of the increase. The takeaway: China’s push into ABF substrates looks increasingly real, and MEC’s chemistry sales may be one of the better ways to track it.

This is an inflection. The company is moving from a Front-End Equipment business with a small Back-End segment, to a full out Packaging Equipment company.

Ibiden Q1: BEAT AND RAISE 🔥 Sales ¥123B (+26% YoY), OP ¥26.9B (+52%) ABF substrates doing all the work - Electronics sales +38%, segment margin 27.6%. How to identify short supply: advances received jumped ¥74B in ONE quarter to ¥155B. Customers are prepaying billions to lock AI substrate capacity. FY guide raised to ¥127B OP - more than DOUBLE last year. H2 ramp incoming.