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Jack Farley
@JackFarley96
Co-founder of Monetary Matters Network:
5.9K Following    90K Followers
There’s an irony to every adult receiving $5,000 checks if Democratic Socialism is defeated in the midterms
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so many things that could "kill the AI trade" ROI slowing down, models stopping getting better, open source cause pricing collapse, China, and many others. 10 year at 5% or even 6% is not one. Of course yield spike could cause semi stocks to nosedive but in terms of ACTUALLY STOPPING THE INVESTMENT? That is driven by forces exogenous to yields being at 2-8% yes not mentioning the name of the PE guy that motivated this tweet^... being a gentleman about it for the moment and also yes if 10-year goes to 10% or "triple digits" (ridiculous thing to say) then yes sure that could crimp investment of course I could be wrong... just my views
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When you're so levered long legacy enterprise software buyouts you start dooming on how a 5% 10-year Treasury yield is going to kill the AI trade (spoiler alert, it's not, the Silicon Valley people are laughing at you)
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Alright here's a reason to be bullish iron prices - diesel prices have a substantial impact on iron particularly in Australia (I'm still not bullish iron)
Serious question - why would anyone ever be bullish iron? #Fe#
I took a lot of heat for having on almost exclusively liberal economists (Krugman Stiglitz etc) to talk about how the Iran War would be a disaster but (sadly) it seems like they were right
WSJ: Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory.
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Whenever you read mining reports/presentations and you see "manganese," replace it with "worthless trash"
I am retracting my "August was a local top in long-end bond yields" call
.@POTUS announces the TRUMP DIVIDEND: If Republicans win both the House and the Senate, because of our tremendous economic success, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States for $5,000
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This would be 1.35 Trillion added to deficit
.@POTUS announces the TRUMP DIVIDEND: If Republicans win both the House and the Senate, because of our tremendous economic success, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States for $5,000
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Important interview on moral hazard in life insurers & what really happens if life insurers' massive bets in private credit go horrifically bad 👇 Apple Spotify YouTube Paper
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My views on this have evolved. Now I put in Gemini's output into Claude and it's like "estimate of 0.1% all-in-sustaining-cost for Diamonds is incorrect, true answer is 25%"
Didn't appreciate just how much better Gemini is than Claude when it comes to news & info about things that have happened in the past week The search company is good at search. Who would have thought
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Good interview, a lot of info and strategy was shared
Mark Zuckerberg (@finkd) on Muse, Meta's personal AI agent I recently sat down with Zuckerberg for episode two of the Sources podcast. We go deep on Muse, Meta's new (and, in my experience over the last few days, very capable) agent that comes with its own virtual machine and can do much more than a chatbot. Zuck, in fact, is confident that Muse will pay for itself by making people money. We also discuss his views on the data center backlash, his concerns about the concentration of power in AI, Meta's recent youth-safety settlement, privacy concerns about Meta's smart glasses, and more. Timestamps: 00:00 Zuckerberg’s Vision for AI 08:34 Data Centers, Jobs and Local Communities 15:03 Why Meta Is Building Personal Superintelligence 19:14 How Zuckerberg Uses Muse 25:00 Muse Pricing and Business Model 30:31 Privacy and Security for Personal Agents 41:06 Who Will Win the Personal AI Agent Market? 44:31 Rebuilding Meta’s AI Lab 54:09 AI Safety and Working With Government 01:01:51 Smart Glasses and Privacy 01:05:50 Teen Safety and Social Media Limits Thanks to the show's premier sponsors: @meetgranola, @mercury, and @Atlassian
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Whoa
NEW from Ramp AI Index: AI spend *declined* among the top 1% of businesses spending on AI. In August, the top 1% of businesses spent $7.2K per employee per month, down 10% from a July peak ($8K). We're seeing more cracks in the AI thesis as a number of drivers show spend topping out. My take: it's not because of open Chinese models. It's model wars. Price cuts + a growing share of spend is shifting to standard and lite models (which are already cheaper) over the frontier.
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Serious question - why would anyone ever be bullish iron? #Fe#
Important interview on moral hazard in life insurers & what really happens if life insurers' massive bets in private credit go horrifically bad 👇 Apple Spotify YouTube Paper
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SEND THESE SELL-SIDE ANALYSTS TO JAIL Analysts expect Lam Research to grow 19% from Sept 26 -> Sep 27... with high conviction, this is too low 19% is barely above average revenue growth going back two decades... $LRCX
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It's a shame you can't short galaxies
Doubt this, I've heard Bessent's short pound story in person in depth from him & believe it. Hedge fund guys so nasty to each other if they were VC people they would be RTing each other all the time.. personality issue. "Bessent a contrarian" - there may be signal there.
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OUT NOW - @LukeGromen on why Sec Bessent's Treasury Buyback Upsizing was necessary: - "Operation Twist" is a form of Yield Curve Control & one piece of a bigger playbook - Warsh isn't hawkish (he can't be) Apple🔊 Spotify📽️
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Live now, talking yield curve flattening w/ @nancy__davis & semi news w/ @benitoz Only on @MTSlive w/ @maxwiethe
Didn't appreciate just how much better Gemini is than Claude when it comes to news & info about things that have happened in the past week The search company is good at search. Who would have thought
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